With mornings growing colder (it was upper 40's last night) i thought i'd dive into the thinking that we might run out of gas this winter.
After looking through a chart that goes back to the '70s i've come to a conclusion that i don't think we'll run out this year. HOWEVER, I do have a few questions.
IN 1996, 2001, 2003 we were down to almost 700 Mcf (in MAR). If i recall correctly all those years had very cold winters in the midwest/NE (something to watch for this winter). How low can this number get??? Can it go down to near zero? Sooner or laters its going to happen!
The peak in storage comes in OCT...the low point is always MAR.
THe lowest storage going into the heating season since 1977 was in OCT 2000 with 2,728 Bcf ........ CURRENTLY we sit @ 2,633 Bcf
Here is theLINK
Wild card seems to be Katrina, since last weekend we've ONLY (!) been losing roughly 8 Mcf a day...(thats a loss of 56 Mcf for the week) which was the total injection (net change) into storage for the previous week.
Therefore can we assume that next week won't see any increase in storage?
What do you think? There is a ton of info @ the EIA website on withdrawls/injections etc etc from way back in the 70's...But its difficult to come up with any solid conclusions.
Surviving in 90F heat with no AC is one thing, Surviving in -25F cold without heat is another!