THE Wind Power Thread pt 2 (merged)

[yesplease]

Lots of EVs/PHEVs make wind power's market penetration much higher since they can provide ~8-12 hour windows for storage at home, and more if people start plugging in at home. Course, the DOE estimated we could hit ~300GW (~20% of generation) w/ modest improvements to transmission I don't think we'll need them to expand wind power until we get a few decades down the road.

[shortonsense]

Course, the DOE estimated we could hit ~300GW (~20% of generation) w/ modest improvements to transmission I don't think we'll need them to expand wind power until we get a few decades down the road.

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

[TheDude]

Eco-Economy Indicators - Wind Power | EPI

[sjn]

Eco-Economy Indicators - Wind Power | EPI

Not only did wind power grow during the worst recession in over a half century, but it increased it's rate of growth by almost 20%. Pretty impressive IMO.

That certainly doesn't look like a 20% increase in the rate of growth 2008-2009 for the US???

[TheAntiDoomer]

[quote="TheDude"]

Eco-Economy Indicators - Wind Power | EPI[/quote

I think yespleases data is more up to date

[sjn]

There's actually something very suspicious with the opening link, it reports jobs lost in wind manufacturing, but compensated for by more jobs in maintainance, whilst financing was "tight":

Denise Bode, chief executive of AWEA, said jobs stalled because of tight financing and uncertainty about wind power incentives, including long-term tax credits and a national mandate for renewable energy.

She said President Barack Obama's recovery act that set aside billions of dollars for renewable energy helped prevent job losses. Some 1,500 to 2,000 jobs were lost in wind power manufacturing, but those jobs were made up for with gains in construction and maintenance at wind power farms, she said.

Does this sound like a recipe for an increased rate of growth? I'm very much in favour of wind power generation, although I'm of the opinion maximum final capacity is limited by availability of suitable sites, rather than being capable of unbounded exponential growth as some others on this site have claimed. I do however think there may be some significance to these two differing reports on the rate of capacity expansion, perhaps there's more on paper (planned/approved expansion) than actually took place due to the reported contraction in the manufacturing of turbines?

[Plantagenet]

Super-ruggedized wind turbines based on designs done for the US Antarctic base in McMurdo are being installed along the Arctic coast of Alaska to power some of the small and remote Aleut villages.

They are performing excellently. Here is a photo of the Kasigluk project here in Alaska.

[TheDude]

The Alaskan bush is a great choice for wind power.



From the AWEA, who ought to know: AWEA Q4 and Year-End Report Release

“The U.S. wind energy industry shattered all installation records in 2009, chalking up the Recovery Act as a historic success in creating jobs, avoiding carbon, and protecting consumers,” said AWEA CEO Denise Bode. “But U.S. wind turbine manufacturing – the canary in the mine -- is down compared to last year’s levels, and needs long-term policy certainty and market pull in order to grow. We need to set hard targets, in the form of a national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES), in order to provide the necessary stability for manufacturers to expand their U.S. operations and to seize the historic opportunity we have today to build up a thriving renewable energy industry.”

Early last year, before the Recovery Act (ARRA), the industry anticipated that in 2009 wind power development might drop by as much as 50% from 2008 levels, with equivalent job losses. The clear commitment by the President to create clean energy jobs and the swift implementation of ARRA incentives by the Administration in mid-summer reversed the situation. Recovery Act incentives spurred the growth of construction, operations and maintenance, and management jobs, helping the industry to save and create jobs in those sectors and shine as a bright spot in the economy.

So we have reckless piling on of debt to thank for wind making it to this stage. Wind power grew in 2009, but 2010 will be a bigger test | FT Energy Source | FT.com

January 26, 2010 5:00pm
by Sheila McNulty

Wind power surged ahead in 2009, breaking all previous records by installing over 9,900 megawatts of new generating capacity in 2009. That is enough to serve over 2.4m homes and expanded the nation’s wind plant fleet by 39 per cent, bringing total wind power generating capacity in the US to over 35,000 megawatts. But do not read too much into those headline-grabbing facts.

Total manufacturing investment dropped compared to 2008, with one-third fewer online, announced and expanded wind power manufacturing facilities in 2009. That resulted in job losses in the sector.

[yesplease]

Eco-Economy Indicators - Wind Power | EPI

Not only did wind power grow during the worst recession in over a half century, but it increased it's rate of growth by almost 20%. Pretty impressive IMO.

That certainly doesn't look like a 20% increase in the rate of growth 2008-2009 for the US???

The graph is using old data (circa Dec 2009, maybe earlier). As of Jan 2010, installed capacity was ~9,900MW last year.

[yesplease]

There's actually something very suspicious with the opening link, it reports jobs lost in wind manufacturing, but compensated for by more jobs in maintainance, whilst financing was "tight":

It's suspicious that more wind turbines require more people to maintain them, do you think that more wind turbines should require fewer people to maintain them? Manufacturing/sales are worldwide, so I'm not sure if a drop in local manufacturing will impact expansion much. Even if we "stall" at ~10GW/year, we'll hit 20% wind power, enough to power 200 million PHEV/EV cars all year, by ~2025-2030.

Does this sound like a recipe for an increased rate of growth? I'm very much in favour of wind power generation, although I'm of the opinion maximum final capacity is limited by availability of suitable sites, rather than being capable of unbounded exponential growth as some others on this site have claimed.

Who said wind power was capable of unbounded exponential growth? Anyhoo, nothing is, it's a total red herring. Whether or not wind continues to grow past ~10GW/year really depends on renewable mandates and the PTC. Credit's big, but not as big as those two AFAIK.

I do however think there may be some significance to these two differing reports on the rate of capacity expansion, perhaps there's more on paper (planned/approved expansion) than actually took place due to the reported contraction in the manufacturing of turbines?

Fer sure there's some significance. One included all of 2009, the other didn't include all of 2009. No one counts anything until it's up AFAIK, it's just that the earlier report missed the usual push in installed capacity at the end of the year.

[yesplease]

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

I drive through this one periodically on the way to visit friends/family. They put up a bunch of new turbines at the *end (Nov/Dec) of last year. A few years ago, I went through there and half the farm was lit up w/ spotlights. I think they were filming the helicopter chase scene for MI-III. The IRL version looked much better.

*I'm pretty sure that they, along w/ other producers, do this because this is the only time of the year they get lulls long enough for them to put up everything w/ the huge cranes they need and whatnot.

[yesplease]

From the AWEA, who ought to know: AWEA Q4 and Year-End Report Release

“The U.S. wind energy industry shattered all installation records in 2009, chalking up the Recovery Act as a historic success in creating jobs, avoiding carbon, and protecting consumers,” said AWEA CEO Denise Bode. “But U.S. wind turbine manufacturing – the canary in the mine -- is down compared to last year’s levels, and needs long-term policy certainty and market pull in order to grow. We need to set hard targets, in the form of a national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES), in order to provide the necessary stability for manufacturers to expand their U.S. operations and to seize the historic opportunity we have today to build up a thriving renewable energy industry.”

Early last year, before the Recovery Act (ARRA), the industry anticipated that in 2009 wind power development might drop by as much as 50% from 2008 levels, with equivalent job losses. The clear commitment by the President to create clean energy jobs and the swift implementation of ARRA incentives by the Administration in mid-summer reversed the situation. Recovery Act incentives spurred the growth of construction, operations and maintenance, and management jobs, helping the industry to save and create jobs in those sectors and shine as a bright spot in the economy.

So we have reckless piling on of debt to thank for wind making it to this stage.

I never understood the "all debt is bad"" mentality. Somehow spending an extra $62 billion/year on cheap coal due to it's impact on health is fine, but if we offer an up front credit instead of the PTC (distributed over 10 years), both with similar costs, that's reckless...

[sjn]

There's actually something very suspicious with the opening link, it reports jobs lost in wind manufacturing, but compensated for by more jobs in maintainance, whilst financing was "tight":

It's suspicious that more wind turbines require more people to maintain them, do you think that more wind turbines should require fewer people to maintain them? Manufacturing/sales are worldwide, so I'm not sure if a drop in local manufacturing will impact expansion much. Even if we "stall" at ~10GW/year, we'll hit 20% wind power, enough to power 200 million PHEV/EV cars all year, by ~2025-2030.

My suspicion is that less manufacturing of turbines is going to produce less growth in the installed capacity, which as you imply requires a constant growth in maintenance workers without which the installed capacity would be eroded. The outlook isn't a rosy as implied by the OP even despite the robust growth that has occurred in the last year.

Does this sound like a recipe for an increased rate of growth? I'm very much in favour of wind power generation, although I'm of the opinion maximum final capacity is limited by availability of suitable sites, rather than being capable of unbounded exponential growth as some others on this site have claimed.

Who said wind power was capable of unbounded exponential growth? Anyhoo, nothing is, it's a total red herring. Whether or not wind continues to grow past ~10GW/year really depends on renewable mandates and the PTC. Credit's big, but not as big as those two AFAIK.

It may be a red herring, but it isn't mine, those who have argued the growth is (effectively) unbounded and used it as a proof for the insignificance of PO know who they are. The outlook going forward depends on multiple factors including those you've noted and the ability to continue fund ongoing maintenance and grid upgrades.

I do however think there may be some significance to these two differing reports on the rate of capacity expansion, perhaps there's more on paper (planned/approved expansion) than actually took place due to the reported contraction in the manufacturing of turbines?

Fer sure there's some significance. One included all of 2009, the other didn't include all of 2009. No one counts anything until it's up AFAIK, it's just that the earlier report missed the usual push in installed capacity at the end of the year.

Fair enough. Let's see what happens going forward.

[shortonsense]

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

I drive through this one periodically on the way to visit friends/family. They put up a bunch of new turbines at the *end (Nov/Dec) of last year. A few years ago, I went through there and half the farm was lit up w/ spotlights. I think they were filming the helicopter chase scene for MI-III. The IRL version looked much better.

This is the one I bumped into.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roscoe_Wind_Farm

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

[pstarr]

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

I drive through this one periodically on the way to visit friends/family. They put up a bunch of new turbines at the *end (Nov/Dec) of last year. A few years ago, I went through there and half the farm was lit up w/ spotlights. I think they were filming the helicopter chase scene for MI-III. The IRL version looked much better.

This is the one I bumped into.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roscoe_Wind_Farm

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Or a national grid

[shortonsense]

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

What do I care? Whether its 5 cents/kwh or 20 cents/kwh, the range is within reason for what people in America are willing, and do, pay for their electricity every day of the week.

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Have you ever spent ANY time in that part of Texas? They build them where they do for a reason.

The Great Plains...Saudi Arabia of Wind!

[pstarr]

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

What do I care? Whether its 5 cents/kwh or 20 cents/kwh, the range is within reason for what people in America are willing, and do, pay for their electricity every day of the week.

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Have you ever spent ANY time in that part of Texas? They build them where they do for a reason.

The Great Plains...Saudi Arabia of Wind!

And once again . . . and again. . . how does more electricity mitigate the current peaking and plateau?

And before you repeat your tiresome canard. . . . can you name an acquaintance who actually owns and drives an electric car? No? That is because they are not products. They are concepts. (I do not consider a Prius an electric car. It is a sales promotion.)

Wait! Do you actually know anyone who even owns a Prius? I'll bet not How about you Camaro-driving wife? Is she about to drive an electric car? Doubt it. You expect everyone else to carry the load, Short.

I HAVE SOLAR PANELS ON MY ROOF AND YOU ARE A PHONY.

[shortonsense]

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Have you ever spent ANY time in that part of Texas? They build them where they do for a reason.

The Great Plains...Saudi Arabia of Wind!

And once again . . . and again. . . how does more electricity mitigate the current peaking and plateau?

And before you repeat your tiresome canard. . . . can you name an acquaintance who actually owns and drives an electric car? No?

Actually, I know DOZENS of people who drive electric cars, which are charged both during the day from solar panels, and by night using the usual local coal fired / wind powered system.

And no, I'm not about to tell you why I know so many....continue to believe that just because pickup trucks are the norm in podunk central that those of us in suburbia are as limited in our choices as you.

That is because they are not products. They are concepts. (I do not consider a Prius an electric car. It is a sales promotion.)

I don't know anyone with a Prius. So if you don't want me to count them, that only leaves me with the original couple dozen!

Wait! Do you actually know anyone who even owns a Prius?

Not by name. But there are 2 which I see regularly in the parking lot.

I'll bet not How about you Camaro-driving wife?

While it is quite possible your memory is so bad that you have already forgotten the type of sports car I bought the wife, even if you mean this as an insult, I forgive you.

Is she about to drive an electric car? Doubt it. You expect everyone else to carry the load, Short.

I told her I'm buying the Volt for myself as soon as it becomes available locally. She says to wait a year or two into the production cycle for them to iron out any early production bugs. Whats your opinion?

I HAVE SOLAR PANELS ON MY ROOF AND YOU ARE A PHONY.

I have no solar panels on my roof..... <hanging head in eco-friendly shame>.....but if I buy a Prius tomorrow will I get extra green points to make up for my sins?

[pstarr]

dozens of people? I am calling you out short. Name one car, one brand, one product. I dare you. How many batteries? How many volts? How far do they commute? How many seats? How do they charge these dozens of electric cars? At home? At work? Can they recharge them outside the Olive Garden? Do they drive to the mall in their electric cars? To Applebees. Target?

Or do they only drive down the country lane to the Farmer's Market? You do shop at Farmer's Markets? With your trust-fund buddies?


Ah forget it. Don't answer. I DO NOT BELIEVE YOU

[shortonsense]

dozens of people? I am calling you out short. Name one car, one brand, one product. I dare you.

Sorry. Unlike you, I don't make up my facts, but I certainly don't have to throw more pearls before the swine either. Go do some of that Internt surfing Editing Scientist stuff you claim is your expertise.

Refuse to believe the obvious. Don't use google. Pretend the world is all gas guzzling pickups and nobody except you uses solar panels. Your belief doesn't change the facts, and certainly you have ignored every other fact ever pointed out to you,

I DO NOT BELIEVE YOU

Of course you don't. You CAN'T believe that such things are happening. Billions of dollars invested into windpower, and you can't believe. Volts and Leafs and Clarities aimed and already on the streets of America, and you must turn away from reality, your worldview is so wrapped up in doom and destruction and natural pessimism that acknowledging even the reality around you would devalue your entire belief system, you wouldn't have a bad world to rail against, you couldn't complain incessantly about how awful humans are, you couldn't go to sleep at night secure in the knowledge that your special skills of imitating farmers from the late parts of the 19th century will save you from the coming apocalypse.....otherwise known as the electrification of transport and the greening of energy production. Don't ask me how someone gets so petrified of the world coming our way, or how becoming a farmer solves it, but hey, its a free country, you can believe anything you'd like, and often do.

No one can force you to see beyond the box you have built for yourself.