Russia to be in recession, in 2015:
NATO slams Russia over Ukraine
In a display of anger from the alliance, which is providing advisers and nonlethal aid to the government in Kiev, foreign ministers from the 28 countries that make up NATO chastised Moscow for its troop build-up in and around eastern Ukraine.
“We strongly condemn Russia’s continued and deliberate destabilization of eastern Ukraine in breach of international law,” the group said in a statement. It said Moscow has provided tanks, air defense systems and heavy weapons to pro-Russian separatists.
The statement also vowed that members of NATO “do not and will not recognize” Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March.The defiant words came a day after Russia announced it would conduct more than 4,000 military exercises in 2015, up from about 1,000 this year. Some will involve “tens of thousands of soldiers,” Russia said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/nato-slams-russia-over-ukraine/2014/12/02/4ae1c7d2-7731-11e4-8893-97bf0c02cc5f_story.html
That's a strong line in the sand:
The statement also vowed that members of NATO “do not and will not recognize” Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March.
I realize what NATO says doesn't mean much and they've been saying the same thing for over a year now, but, with the crimea part reiterated in this statement that does mean there isn't going to be any annexation recognition compromise. Not soon anyway. At best, maybe another year from now, for that kind of compromise.
So the sanctions will continue. We'll see what happens, if Russia rattles more sabres, or if Russia destabilizes, or both. Hopefully the Russian gov realizes the reality that the EU and USA and western world community will never back down to bullying tactics. It will not work. It's really never worked for Russia anywhere else, for that matter, but while the smaller nations take it -- Europeans and Americans will not.
If Russia rattles more sabres, or worse cyberattacks, or more cold war bomber probing or whatever else they think up,
none of that will ever make the West back down it will only strengthen resolve and make the situation worse for Russia.So I don't know what they'll do or where it leads, if it's escalation of bullying I'm just sayin' it ain't gonna work it just won't. We'll see what they do and how far they want to push it. They ought to remember though that other people are as stubborn as they are, we really won't back down, you just keep it up and that just makes it worse. They could have had a compromise, by now, but rather they are causing the West to harden its position.
Putin's worried about "regime change." Well, Western leaders really will settle on that as the only option, if Russia will not work with them. So I don't know what Putin can do here, what's he gonna do nuke us? Even if he threatens that, it's only going to make people ANGRY it will not make anyone back down. Don't they realize this?
And this is a prudent idea:
Germany wants NATO-Russia channel to avoid accidental escalation
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Germany urged NATO on Tuesday to set up an early warning system with Russia to prevent any military accident from spiralling out of control.
...
"I think we are obliged to ... take care that a conflict does not get out of control and lead to a military escalation. We need certain channels to check if some reports are true or not," he told reporters at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers.
NATO and Russian ambassadors have met only twice since the Crimea crisis erupted. One diplomat said a few countries, including France, Germany and Italy, were backing a proposal to use the existing NATO-Russia Council as a mechanism to avoid escalation.
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2014/12/03/Germany-wants-NATORussia-channel-to-avoid-accidental-escalation/
I wonder if there's still that red phone between then oval office and the kremlin?
So anyhow -- neither side is going to back down, but certainly neither side wants a conflict to spiral out of control and maybe risk nuclear launch.
My opinion and position is that it would be okay to negotiate recognition of Russian Crimea, at this point, but in exchange there would be Ukraine having US / nato troops in there and the stuff Russia does in the east has to stop, and there can't be any more separatist state / annexing stuff anywhere else, like Moldova or anywhere. And certainly not NATO Baltics.
But that's just my opinion. Those in charge are taking a harder line than I would, they say they'll never recognize Russian Crimea.