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THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 10 Sep 2014, 16:44:34

This photo is amazing:

Image

The eruption seen from Jökulsarlón south of Vatnajökull glacier. (Martin Schultz, MBL)

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/0 ... te-140910/

Update:

Amidst the truly spectacular images, the “eye candy”, currently reposted on our FaceBook account, on Twitter and on here by our readers, three possible scenarios emerge. Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, professor of geophysics at the University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences and the foremost Icelandic expert on subglacial eruptions outlines the three following scenarios:


1) The eruption at Holuhraun stops and with it the depletion of the magma reservoir of the Bardarbunga system also stops.
2) The eruption at Holuhraun continues as does the depletion with an accompanying subsidence at the Bardarbunga caldera. (As this goes on, the risk of possibility #3 increases, our note).
3) The deflation reaches a critical point where part of the roof of the Bardarbunga caldera collapses which allows water, liquid or in the form of ice, to interact directly with the magmatic main body. (This will lead to a series of very violent explosions which will only stop when either the body of water/ice or the body of magma are exhausted, our note).
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 11 Sep 2014, 03:28:21

There is a guy DeepThought

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/0 ... te-140910/

Under Bardarbunga ……If there is just one cubic km of “super hot liquid water” 50 degrees above boiling …….and the north west area failed ……..ALL the water would immediately be “flashed to steam” ………expand some 1600x……. releasing in a instant ……energy equivalent to a 57 mega ton explosion, …….and strait after follows the magma eruption
Tsar Bomba USSR, most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated, yield of 50 megatons, (50 million tons of TNT)
**************
Read his analysis and please find a mistake......

A Tzar bomb like explosion is the ultimate worst case szenario in Barbadunga caldera and all depends on the number of magma + super-hot-water in place.

Explosion video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlVPYsix9Z4
TOBA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5jcBWzB3nM
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby WildRose » Sat 13 Sep 2014, 20:13:12

Have a look at this update from Jon Frimann's blog. Scary stuff. I hope it doesn't turn out to be this bad for Iceland.

The collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano

The collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano has already started. The caldera collapse in Bárðarbunga volcano started on 16-August-2014 and has been going on since then. Here is what I am expecting from the caldera collapse once it reaches its peak.

There are going to be earthquakes in the range of 5,5 and up to 6,7. Maybe larger if the crust can handle it.
Glacier flood are going to go south-west and north (Húsavík area) and possibly in other directions. I am expecting damage to hydrothermal plants in the pathway of the floods. How much damage there is going to be depends on the magnitude of the flood and the path it takes.
I am expecting long periods of no power in parts of Iceland once the flood has passed. I am also expecting lack of communications in large areas of Iceland. This is why Rúv has been telling people to get long-wave radios for the past few days. Usage of mobile network is also going to be unreliable in large parts of Iceland once the collapse starts full force in Bárðarbunga volcano. Due to damage that glacier floods are going to create.
I am expecting an ash cloud that might go up to 20 km or higher up in the atmosphere. It is however impossible to know for sure what happens until this starts.
It is difficult to know fore sure how much drop is going to take place, but it can be up to many hundreds of meters.
I fear that north slope of Bárðarbunga might collapse forward once this starts. Earthquakes in the area give clues about weakness forming there.

Bárðarbunga volcano is 2009 meters high above the ocean. This means there is a lot of material that is going to blow outwards once the collapse starts full force. This is might be one of largest eruptions in Iceland since it got populated more than one thousands years ago. I am hoping that the picture that I am drawing up is not as bad the reality once this starts. I am also hoping that no loss of life is going to happen. I am hoping for the best in this case, but the clues that I am getting are no good at all.


http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 Sep 2014, 07:36:03

Please do keep the updates and insights coming.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 05:09:10

http://baering.github.io

Collaps and a gigantic (~50Gton TNT) Explosion could come every Minute

Earthquakes now 5.0 < 1km death

This could be an epic unique moment for Europe


Photoshop Simulation
Image

SO2 signature of the actual plume
Image
M_B_S

Epic Photos here
http://mashable.com/2014/09/11/iceland- ... on-photos/
Image

Image
http://www.theage.com.au/national/educa ... 0fqtf.html

Seismologists predict another Icelandic volcano is about to blow
Date
September 15, 2014 - 12:15AM


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/educa ... z3DNUVWFmM
*****************
Hollywood Event:Yellostone Explode with live on radio

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzk1uqxpfoY
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 10:07:15

A true story:

Around Summer 1995 myself and a camping buddy were setting up a tent in a camp about 90 minutes from pavement in the Mammoth Lakes region of California. An irate Park Ranger on horseback rode up and told us to leave, even though we had a written confirmed reservation and the campground was otherwise deserted.

It seemed that the local volcano was stirring, which had over the geological ages formed that huge section of California called the Long Caldera, the latest large eruption of which had grown the massive mountain that had become the Mammoth Lakes ski resort.

A daily average of 300 metric tons of carbon dioxide gas was silently rising from the sandy soils in the area, creeping downhill invisibly, pooling on lakes and in valleys like our campground, and suffocating both wildlife and people in tents. We "should have been" notified of this fact because of our long-standing reservation, and there "should have been" a posted notice at the trailhead we parked at, and we had two hours to leave or we would be arrested and he had half a mind to arrest us anyway....

We gathered our stuff and walked wearily back to the car. I suppose we should be grateful and he possibly saved our lives. But he managed to offend and anger us as do so many government employees.

But I never forgot the lesson that the one slumbering and inactive volcano was emitting more carbon dioxide than all the vehicles in the USA that fine day, and many others besides. Of course in this case the carbon dioxide does not matter, it is "natural" carbon dioxide, not at fault in Global Warming.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 11:18:06

An important reminder that, in sufficient quantities, CO2 can be an immediate killer, rather than the longer-term, less-direct killer it represents through GW. Thanks for the story. I, for one, am glad the irate ranger showed up to warn you. Perhaps you owe him, even though represents the government you hate, your life?
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 12:18:14

"I suppose we should be grateful and he possibly saved our lives." As I pointed out earlier volcanologists have the highest mortality rate of any professional scientist. And it’s almost always from the various gases emitted and not lava bombs, etc.

But they do make battery powered CO2 detectors so maybe you can strap onto your belt and sneak back in. But be sure you bring enough batteries with you. LOL
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 12:23:53

Ah, but we did thank him, while he was there. He had spotted our camp and ridden 1/2 mile out of his way to check the campground that should not have been in use. But this had annoyed HIM, so he had annoyed US. (Seems like the horse should have been the annoyed one, the trail was steep.)

Which is typical of government employees I have known. The worst being a group of Haitians that run our local DMV office, who delight in waiting until you have reached the window to tell you you are in the wrong line, and turn any task into a half day ordeal - because they can, and it amuses them to do so.

Nor do I hate governments - I used to be a government employee. My job in the USCG was helping people, sometimes at the risk of my own life.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 14:04:51

KJ - Yep...some folks bitch about the coasties down here but when they need help they don't hesitate to radio. I've developing a bit of an attitude towards our Rail Road Commission. I've dealt with them for decades and didn't have many problems: they have rules and if you follow them things go smooth enough. But lately they've become a major pain in the ass. Not really anyone's fault IMHO. But the work load has boomed since the shale plays boomed. And though they do tend to be fairly smart (but not a lot of practical experience) there's a reason they work for the state govt and not private companies that demand greater efficiency since, as we know, "time is money". LOL.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 15:23:15

ROCKMAN, this might puzzle some, and amuse others: http://www.proudproducers.com/proddetail.php?prod=WO04-m
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 15 Sep 2014, 19:42:48

KaiserJeep wrote:A daily average of 300 metric tons of carbon dioxide gas
...
more carbon dioxide than all the vehicles in the USA that fine day, and many others besides.
The US consumes 2 million tons of oil per day.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 17 Sep 2014, 04:15:52

Currant status of Bárðarbunga volcano at 13:47 UTC

There is now one month since activity started in Bárðarbunga volcano. Around 20.000 earthquakes have been detected in this one month. Normal quiet year in Iceland has around 12.000 earthquakes. There have been around 229 earthquakes larger than magnitude 3,0. Almost all of them have taken place in Bárðarbunga volcano and in the ring fault that has formed.
It is expected that rift episode that is now taking place north of Bárðarbunga is going to last for months. So it is important to be patience when waiting for nature to do its thing.
Bárðarbunga volcano caldera is currently dropping around 50cm/day. That might change without warning.
The eruption in Holuhraun is ending slowly. It is expected that it is going to end in next few days. This does not mean the eruption is over, it means there is now increased risk of new eruption along the dyke. There is high risk of any new eruption taking place under the glacier. Since most of the dyke is under the Vatnajökull glacier.
ESA has interesting article about the SO2 pollution here.
Largest earthquake today had the magnitude 4,8 at 10:36 UTC. It is the largest earthquake so far. Second largest earthquake took place at 09:13 UTC and had the magnitude of 3,6.
Harmonic tremor data suggest that pressure might be increasing again inside Bárðarbunga volcano system. That is not good news and might start an eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera.
Rifting episode has not yet started south of Bárðarbunga volcano. When that is going to start I do not know. I do however expect it to happen soon, so there is risk of eruption both north and south og Bárðarbunga, along with eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano it self. This does not mean that all areas are going to erupting at the same time, that might happen in some cases.http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
*********************

The caldera is still collapsing....... :!:

biggest earthquake : 5.4 last 24h

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 17 Sep 2014, 04:46:51

How long can Icelanders live in a state of not knowing whether they are all going to have to be evacuated or if this is going to just continue to be a relatively low level lava flow?
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 17 Sep 2014, 14:14:02

dohboi wrote:How long can Icelanders live in a state of not knowing whether they are all going to have to be evacuated or if this is going to just continue to be a relatively low level lava flow?

Icelanders are used to this type of situation, so far it's nothing unusual and the area is largely uninhabited (for good reason), the populated areas are far away from the active volcanic regions.

Unless something spectacular happens, they'll just carry on as usual.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 17 Sep 2014, 21:46:50

Soooo, would you say it's more an issue of:

Image

OR:

Image
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 18 Sep 2014, 11:17:28

First eyewitness accounts of mystery volcanic eruption
This eruption occurred just before the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption which is famous for its impact on climate worldwide, with 1816 given memorable names such as 'Eighteen-Hundred-and-Froze-to-Death', the 'Year of the Beggar' and the 'Year Without a Summer' because of unseasonal frosts, crop failure and famine across Europe and North America. The extraordinary conditions are considered to have inspired literary works such as Byron's 'Darkness' and Mary Shelley's Frankenstein.
However, the global deterioration of the 1810s into the coldest decade in the last 500 years started six years earlier, with another large eruption. In contrast to Tambora, this so-called 'Unknown' eruption seemingly occurred unnoticed, with both its location and date a mystery. In fact the 'Unknown' eruption was only recognised in the 1990s, from tell-tale markers in Greenland and Antarctic ice that record the rare events when volcanic aerosols are so violently erupted that they reach the Earth's stratosphere.
...
Dr Erica Hendy said: "There have to be more observations hidden away, for example in ship logs. Having a date for the eruption will now make it much easier to track these down, and maybe even pinpoint the volcano. Climate modelling of this fascinating decade will also now be more accurate because the season of the eruption determines how the aerosols disperse around the globe and where climatic effects are felt."
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 19 Sep 2014, 05:25:31

Current status on Bárðarbunga volcano at 20:36 UTC

Largest earthquakes in Bárðarbunga yesterday (17-September-2014) was a magnitude 5,2. Largest earthquake today (18-September-2014) was a magnitude 5,3. Other earthquakes have been smaller.
Bárðarbunga volcano caldera continues to drop. When the magnitude 5,3 earthquake happened today at 14:21 UTC the caldera dropped 20 – 30 cm.

Harmonic tremor data

I can see two things in the harmonic tremor data. The pressure is increasing in Bárðarbunga volcano system. I am also seeing pulses of harmonic tremor and that is not good. It means that magma has somewhere found a path to the surface, it just isn’t there yet, but it is working way up. It is impossible to know if this magma gets all the way up or not. Small eruptions are also not impossible, since there signature might simply be lost in the noise on the tremor plots that I am using from Icelandic Met Office

http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
*********************************************

We are waiting for the explosion........
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 19 Sep 2014, 22:16:29

So is it about to blow or not?
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 20 Sep 2014, 04:10:06

dohboi wrote:So is it about to blow or not?


We will or will not see it. Time will tell us. The caldera is still collapsing.

Eartquakes in or near caldera still > 5

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