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THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 16:32:23

Some probably know this already: the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is the spreading boundary between the N American and European plates. Which is why S America and Africa look like jigsaw puzzle pieces that could be pushed together. And they were at one time with the MAR splitting them apart. For hundreds of millions of years magma has swelled up and driven the two plats apart like a giant conveyor belt. A ridge dominated by volcanic activity including today. Iceland is a surface outcrop of the MAR: eastern and western Iceland are moving away from each other. Thus the volcanic activity that has existed for those hundreds of millions of years.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 17:52:10

I guess some people missed this from the last page of this thread.

Around 15-16,000 year ago, planetary warming triggered rapid melting of the glaciers, reducing the load acting on the volcanoes beneath and on the underlying asthenosphere.

By 12,000 years ago unloading was sufficiently advanced to trigger a spectacular response. Over a period of 1500 years or so, the volcanic eruption rate jumped by between 30 and 50 times, before falling back to today's level.


Yes, we don't know whether this particular volcano was partly triggered by melting, but it would not be surprising for future volcanoes to be so triggered, since that has happened before on this very island.

The quote if from Bill McGuire's latest book, Waking the Giant about exactly these kinds of inter-relations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McGui ... ologist%29
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 18:54:09

dohboi wrote:I guess some people missed this from the last page of this thread.

Around 15-16,000 year ago, planetary warming triggered rapid melting of the glaciers, reducing the load acting on the volcanoes beneath and on the underlying asthenosphere.

By 12,000 years ago unloading was sufficiently advanced to trigger a spectacular response. Over a period of 1500 years or so, the volcanic eruption rate jumped by between 30 and 50 times, before falling back to today's level.


Yes, we don't know whether this particular volcano was partly triggered by melting, but it would not be surprising for future volcanoes to be so triggered, since that has happened before on this very island.

The quote if from Bill McGuire's latest book, Waking the Giant about exactly these kinds of inter-relations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McGui ... ologist%29


Because of Iceland’s location, we can be fairly certain that GW has no role in its development, the spreading of the tectonic plates alone is sufficient to cause such activity.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 19:30:21

I think everyone knows that Iceland is on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

The point is that the last deglaciation did lead to an unusually large amount of volcanic activity there. The question is whether the same thing will happen as GW melts even more glaciers there.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 19:49:02

dohboi wrote:I guess some people missed this from the last page of this thread.

Around 15-16,000 year ago, planetary warming triggered rapid melting of the glaciers, reducing the load acting on the volcanoes beneath and on the underlying asthenosphere.

By 12,000 years ago unloading was sufficiently advanced to trigger a spectacular response. Over a period of 1500 years or so, the volcanic eruption rate jumped by between 30 and 50 times, before falling back to today's level.


Yes, we don't know whether this particular volcano was partly triggered by melting, but it would not be surprising for future volcanoes to be so triggered, since that has happened before on this very island.
I think that refers to the rebound from the melting of the km thick glaciers after the last glaciation. The glaciers today are much smaller.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 19:51:47

dohboi wrote:I think everyone knows that Iceland is on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

The point is that the last deglaciation did lead to an unusually large amount of volcanic activity there. The question is whether the same thing will happen as GW melts even more glaciers there.

That is the question I answered, volcanic activity in Iceland is "normal" this event is also "normal" due to the proximity of the mid Atlantic ridge. If you were referring to somewhere like the Alps or Scandinavia then you may be correct, but not in Iceland.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 19:54:02

Good point, KM. I'm still not ruling out a connection. I need to read more of that book I just quoted.

Meanwhile, here is what some anonymous dude on a blog has to say as far as predictions for this one goes:

Irpsit
August 23, 2014 at 22:12

I have a feeling that since every day the dike seems nearer the surface (10km a few days ago, 3km today), that a fissure eruption is going to start in just a couple of days from now.

Also I also see that every passing day the intrusion progresses northeastwards. Today the dike was just 3km away from the edge of the ice cap. At this rate, it will erupt partially outside of the ice cap, in ice-free land.

So my guess now is for a 10km long fissure eruption occuring in 2 days, part explosive/ash, part just lava fountains. Eventually, the tip of the fissure becomes a small shield volcano eruption, around 0.1-0.5 km3. Either that, or we will see this build-up for months and the episode is going to involve much larger volumes of magma, 1-10km3.


http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/0 ... -the-move/

Thoughts?
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 23:13:55

"The point is that the last deglaciation did lead to an unusually large amount of volcanic activity there." Or did an unusual amount of volcanic activity lead to deglaciation? I wish I could quantify the energy levels involved but too far afield for me. But qualitatively the weight of even a mile of ice pales in comparison to the forces behind seafood spreading, magma movement and volcanic activity. And bear in mind that there's a significant amount of volcanic activity happening in areas where there has never been glaciers. Such as Surtsey:

"The Surtsey eruption is among the longest eruptions to have occurred in Iceland in historical times. The first sign of an eruption came early in the morning of November 14, 1963. The eruption is believed to have commenced a few days earlier on the sea floor, at a depth of 130 m. Explosive phases characterized the Surtsey eruption in the beginning, and due to the rapid cooling effects of the sea, the hot magma transformed into tephra (volcanic ash). The tephra production was tremendous, and an island had already been formed the day after – on November 15. By the end of January 1964, the new island’s elevation was 174 m, or over 300 m above the sea floor where it had all begun. The eruption activity moved to the northwest on February 1, 1964, where tephra erupted from young Surtur (Surtungur) until the beginning of April. From December 28, 1963, to January 6, 1964, a submarine eruption was evident in a location approximately 2.5 km east-northeast of Surtsey. A ridge some 100 m high formed on the sea floor. It was given the name Surtla but never grew to become an island, as did Surtsey."

Basically the current volcanic activity in Iceland is more on the order of a pimple on the ass of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. It's only garnering so much attention because of the potential effect on humans since it isn't happening thousands of feet below the ocean's surface.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 23 Aug 2014, 23:29:51

Next eruption will be much less devastating to global economy

THE anticipated eruption of an Icelandic volcano will not have as big an impact on aviation as the ash cloud crisis that struck in the summer of 2010.

As much as €3.5bn was wiped off the value of the global economy back in 2010 as a result of the euruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano.

More than 100,000 passenger and freight flights were cancelled as a result of no-fly orders because of fears that an ash cloud that spread from Canada to Siberia would damage aircraft flying through the particles.

The direct cost to the airline sector was around €1.3bn.

Airlines were forced to tear up timetables and wait for the ash to disipate.

But this time around the disruption is likely to be far less, because airlines have adopted a more scientific process to identify dangerous skies.


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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 24 Aug 2014, 00:46:42

Graeme wrote:More than 100,000 passenger and freight flights were cancelled as a result of no-fly orders because of fears that an ash cloud that spread from Canada to Siberia would damage aircraft flying through the particles.

The direct cost to the airline sector was around €1.3bn.
How much FF was not burned as a result?
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby oddone » Sun 24 Aug 2014, 08:39:05

Some interesting comments and graphics:

http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
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Iceland volcano: Aviation risk level from Bardarbunga lowere

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 24 Aug 2014, 12:15:37

The calm before the storm perhaps or the storm has passed.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28917495
Iceland has lowered the warning level to aviation from the Bardarbunga volcano from "red" to "orange", its second-highest level.

However, the Icelandic Met Office said there were "no indications that [seismic] activity is slowing down" and added "an eruption cannot be excluded".

Earlier, two earthquakes shook the area around Bardarbunga.

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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Aug 2014, 15:17:35

Thanks for the great links. This from Gasmon's second:

Civil Protection: emergency phase lifted

and

Bardarbunga: Aviation alert downgraded

So is the thinking now that nothing much is going to come of this, at least in the short-ish term?
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dblk » Sun 24 Aug 2014, 18:53:06

dohboi wrote:So is the thinking now that nothing much is going to come of this, at least in the short-ish term?


No, it just means that the previous eruption alert was a false alarm. No actual eruption has happened yet. The swarm of earthquakes/underground magma flow keeps currently moving towards Askja, which is a much more potent volcano than Bardarbunga. If it reaches Askja's magma chamber and triggers an eruption there who knows what will happen.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Aug 2014, 12:05:53

New quakes raise concern over large eruption

A volcanic system close to Iceland's Bardarbunga's volcano was hit by a magnitude 4.5 earthquake in the early hours of Wednesday


http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28943708

It adds to concerns that magma from Bardarbunga could feed into the nearby Askja volcano.

British and Icelandic scientists say that 50 million cubic metres of molten rock has moved in a 24 hour period.

If it continues to head north, it could link up with the Askja system and trigger a large eruption.

Scientists working in the area have said that they will be withdrawing from the exclusion zone on Wednesday after they have deployed some more instruments.

Prof Bob White, from the University of Cambridge, said "It's headed straight for it."

But he cautioned that volcanoes were hard to predict.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 27 Aug 2014, 14:07:18

If it's fifty million cubic meters of magma does it really matter which chuck hole it pops up out of?
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 27 Aug 2014, 15:05:17

vtsnowedin wrote:If it's fifty million cubic meters of magma does it really matter which chuck hole it pops up out of?
I think it's worse if it's under a glacier.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby WildRose » Wed 27 Aug 2014, 16:50:45

Keith_McClary wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If it's fifty million cubic meters of magma does it really matter which chuck hole it pops up out of?
I think it's worse if it's under a glacier.


Apparently that's the worst kind of scenario for a disruptive ash cloud, if the eruption comes up through a glacier.
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Re: Possible new volcanic eruption in Iceland

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 27 Aug 2014, 18:58:30

WildRose wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If it's fifty million cubic meters of magma does it really matter which chuck hole it pops up out of?
I think it's worse if it's under a glacier.


Apparently that's the worst kind of scenario for a disruptive ash cloud, if the eruption comes up through a glacier.
Well you wouldn't want to live in a cabin at the foot of the glacier as you might get a lot more hot water then you can handle but compared to the poison gasses that often are thrown out by erupting volcanoes along with the earthquake potential I'd think some fresh water steam would be the least of your worries.
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