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THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 20 Sep 2014, 16:28:53

Bárðarbunga Eruption More Likely

September 20, 2014

The likelihood of an eruption in the Bárðarbunga caldera is increasing, says volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson.

“It is becoming more likely that there will be an eruption under the glacier at Bárðarbunga,” Ármann told Vísir. “The eruption in Holuhraun can’t handle much more and this shit has to come out somewhere.”

...If an eruption took place in the caldera under the ice it would have serious repercussions.

“There would be a flood, likely up north and a considerable ash cloud,” said Ármann. “It could create a similar situation to the one we saw when Eyjafjallajökull erupted, but that will depend on the direction of the wind and so forth.”


http://grapevine.is/news/2014/09/20/bar ... re-likely/
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 21 Sep 2014, 03:05:03

Video demonstrates how big the fissure eruption is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGMHD6-aV34#t=141

There are km³ of lava flowing....

Our weather this winter and next summer will be crazy i think.
Image

SO2 plume.


LAKI II ?

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 21 Sep 2014, 08:43:34

Thanks for that awesome video, MBS, and for the map. Between them you wrote: "There are km³ of lava flowing...."

Presumably there was supposed to be a number before " km³"; any idea what it was supposed to be?
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 21 Sep 2014, 09:55:36

Can't comment on the original link but here's a nice one (aimed at US readers).
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/english/2014/ ... manhattan/

The lava-field in Holuhraun is big. Very big, even. Longer than a bunch of foot­ball fields put to­gether and big­ger in vol­ume than a whole lot of Em­pire State build­ings full of lava. From point-to-point, it mea­sures around 19 kilo­me­ters, nearly 12 miles.

The prob­lem is that when you have some­thing big­ger than, say, ten foot­ball fields put to­gether, you kind of lose track of just how big that some­thing is. How many foot­ball fields, end to end, would it take to cover the dis­tance from Vi­enna and Mu­nich? Prob­a­bly quite a few, more than you can eas­ily imag­ine, and too many for it to give a clear pic­ture of the dis­tance.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 21 Sep 2014, 11:40:24

Image

There are 5-15 km³ lava in the game but how many lava will errupt is not clear .

Earthquake 5.5 @ caldera still collapsing

The magma chamber is very deep 10km so the erruption will go on for mounths maybe the whole next year?

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 21 Sep 2014, 22:25:03

Thanks for the clarification, MBS. And what if all that stuff comes out much, much more quickly?
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 22 Sep 2014, 01:29:32

When the caldera crashes and the glacier meets 1-10 km³ lava: BOOOOOOM!

When > 10km³ lava are errupting without ice / water contact but millions of tons SO2 : Laki II event.


Image

GPS Data confirms the caldera is collapsing.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 22 Sep 2014, 07:54:06

I know this has the potential to be really bad for lots of people, but it is also pretty amazing.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby WildRose » Mon 22 Sep 2014, 11:39:41

Here is a link to a daily update of the Bardarbunga's status with notes from the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.

There continue to be good-sized earthquakes in the volcano caldera and subsidence of the caldera is continuing as well. It is believed that there will likely be an eruption from the caldera (which would produce an ash cloud and flooding because of the ice on top of it) but of course no one knows when, exactly.

If you scroll down to the end of the notes, they list the likely scenarios and "Other scenarios cannot be excluded." From what I've read on blogs and such, the "other scenarios" are worse.

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/myndsafn/F ... 140922.pdf
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 23 Sep 2014, 12:53:24

Bárðarbunga volcano daily update 22-September-2014
Posted on September 22, 2014 by Jón Frímann

There is continued risk of new eruptions in Holuhraun and south of it, including under the glacier.
According to Ármann Höskuldsson geologist at University of Iceland both Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption in 2010 (information here, Wikipedia) and Grímsfjall volcano eruption in 2011 (information here, Wikipedia) were smaller then current eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano and connected events.
It is expected that eruption is going to start in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera. When is not known.
Bárðarbunga volcano caldera continues to subside at the same rate as before, that rate is currently 50cm/day.
More magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano from depth (more than 10 km deep source). It is clear that current eruption and earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to continue for months at shortest. This might go on for years at the longest. With minor breaks as often happen in fissure eruptions.
On 1-October-2014 the eruption in Holuhraun has been ongoing for one month.


http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

The lava field at Holuhraun is now 0.5 km³. It is now the second largest lava field in Iceland during the past 150 years. Only Hekla lava field from 1947 is larger at the moment, it is 0.8 km³ in size. If the Holuhraun eruption continues as it has, it is going to get Hekla lava field size in about two weeks.
************************

So we are @ 1/30 of Laki (lavavolume ) now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Sep 2014, 16:16:59

Thanks WR and MSB-- Do keep us posted.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 28 Sep 2014, 15:42:48

ap wrote:LONGVIEW, Wash. (AP) — Ten years ago this week, Mount St. Helens awoke from an 18-year geological slumber.

The news media and volcano-watchers flocked to Johnston Ridge, the closest road with a crater view. Steam and ash eruptions shot thousands of feet into the air, and for several weeks, the area near the volcano was closed because of safety concerns.

Over the next three years, a second lava dome slowly appeared in the crater, eventually rising 1,076 feet above the crater floor. By the time the eruption ended in 2008, climbers had already been allowed back to the summit and media attention faded.

Though the mountain isn't getting as much publicity these days, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey are marking the anniversary to highlight new eruption warning technology they've installed around the volcano since then and to remind people that Mount St. Helens will continue to rebuilt itself.

The eruption that started a decade ago was the second of two dome-building phases.

The first one started after the explosive eruption of May 18, 1980. Twenty lava eruptions occurred over the next six years.

Geologists were surprised that the mountain stopped erupting in 1986. "Many of us were expecting it to continue a while," said USGS seismologist Seth Moran..

The second lava dome, which started appearing in 2004, appeared at a different spot in the crater. Lava that appeared from 2004-08 was much more solid than during the earlier phase.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Japan volcano: Mt Ontake rescue teams find 31 bodies

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 28 Sep 2014, 16:34:05

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29399306

Survivors filmed the eruption at close quarters and described volcanic rock falling "like hailstones"
Continue reading the main story
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Mount Ontake spews ash and stones Watch
Animated guide: Volcanoes

The bodies of 31 hikers have been found near the top of Japan's Mount Ontake a day after a sudden volcanic eruption.

The hikers were not breathing and their hearts had stopped. The search for a total of 45 missing climbers has now been called off for the night.

The volcano, about 200km (125 miles) west of Tokyo, erupted without warning on Saturday, spewing ash and rocks.

About 250 people were trapped on the slopes of the popular beauty spot, but most got down safely.

Japan is one of the world's most seismically active nations - but there have been no fatalities from volcanic eruptions since 1991, when 43 people died at Mount Unzen in the south-west.


This one caught them by surprise!
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Sep 2014, 20:29:28

Indeed. Thanks for catching this, db.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 28 Sep 2014, 20:44:46

"...erupted without warning on Saturday". Actually a bit of warning. A month ago there was some minor seismic activity but it subsided so not much attention was paid to the area since then.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Sep 2014, 20:46:16

Just as well. If there had been a more gradual build up, there probably would have been a swarm of vulcanologists at the site when it blew.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 29 Sep 2014, 10:50:27

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby WildRose » Mon 29 Sep 2014, 11:17:25

M_B_S wrote:Bardabunga Caldera

Very strong earthquake: 5.5

http://baering.github.io

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/b ... png?rand=0


The second biggest since Bardabunga started shaking again, as there was a 5.7 a few weeks back. But the quakes are getting shallower and are concentrating around the caldera rim. Some say it is deeper sources of magma on the move that is causing them, but others are not sure what they mean.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 30 Sep 2014, 14:16:05

Amazing 1 minute video of eruption :
http://nautil.us/blog/the-sound-so-loud ... four-times
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 01 Oct 2014, 15:26:42

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/0 ... st-iceland
Status Quo at Bárðarbunga and Holuhraun
BY EYGLÓ SVALA ARNARSDÓTTIR October 01, 2014 11:59

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/0 ... -holuhraun

The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera continues, as mentioned in the latest status report from the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues at the same rate with the new lava field now estimated to cover more than 46 square kilometers (17.8 square miles).

Very high sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution from the eruption in Holuhraun has been detected by Lake Mývatn in Northeast Iceland since late last night, with levels shooting up to as much as 6,000 μg/m3 at the Reykjahlíð school, measured by the Environment Agency of Iceland.

“Everyone may experience respiratory symptoms, especially individuals with underlying diseases,” the agency’s website, which is both in Icelandic and English, reads.

For those traveling in Iceland, it’s advisable to click on the different destinations on the map of Iceland on the agency’s website to observe the levels of SO2 pollution.
****************************
Still waiting for the big bang ....

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