Stock market shake-up: So what happens Monday?

[koyali]

Hi this is Koyali now a days stock market is fully up and downs once it increases other wise decreases so many companies as well as so many people could suffer this problem.Stokmarket is down rates will be increase so middle class people suffer.
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koyali

[jasonraymondson]

... because nobody is posting anything in this forum.

[AAA]

Haven't you heard peakoil.com is the new myspace/foxnews

[Arsenal]

That's because everyone is too busy getting out of their shorts..

[patience]

Well, must be quiet in D.C., huh? Every time some new brain fart save-it-all plan comes from there, the market tanks. But it's okay for the UK to print money like there's no tomorrow, right? And losing 650,000 US jobs a month is okay, too? I can't begin to think of any SANE reason why the market would go up now.

[JJ]

because my boss said the stock market ALWAYS goes back up, thats why....

[perdition79]

That's because everyone is too busy getting out of their shorts..

$371 back in my bank account! That's twice what I'll make at work tonight. Thank you, General Electric.

[jdmartin]

Well, it's a hell of a thing. Pandit writes a letter to employees that says "Hey, we're doing great" and Wall Street goes balls-out for financials. I'm going to laugh, laugh, laugh if Citibank shows a loss in their next quarter.

There's nothing - nothing - in the fundamental market that would say "buy financials". If anything, they're still teetering on the precipice. If the USG comes in and saves the day for more stock, that'll just kill off anyone who's left in the stock.

Oh yeah, the auto stocks went bonkers when Obama first got elected and there was great promise of a magical US bailout. I even bought some to see if I could make a few bucks. Thankfully I got out without getting killed - they're now selling at less than 50% of what I bought them at the beginning of December, and I thought they were a bargain then.

[AAA]

I know I am not the only person with a smile on my face today.

Everyone now is a little richer than they were yesterday. Tomorrow it might be gone but enjoy it.

[AlexdeLarge]

It is good to know this crisis is over. No need to worry about the Alt. A mortgages peaking, the commercial realestate market going bust, credit card debt not a problem. To think that all we had to do was borrow and spend a few trillion dollars to set the world right again.
Why soon all we will be left to fume about is the demand for oil driving the price back over $150.00/barrel. !!

The Messiah is in his temple and Madam Pelosi is in her jet ........Happy days are surely here again!

Just forget about these bears looking in your window:



http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

[erl]

We're not posting because we're all catching our breath waiting for the next leg down.

It's kind of like the pause at the top of the rollercoaster. Except we're not on the highest hill anymore. We've already come down a long ways.

[jasonraymondson]

It is good to know this crisis is over. No need to worry about the Alt. A mortgages peaking, the commercial realestate market going bust, credit card debt not a problem. To think that all we had to do was borrow and spend a few trillion dollars to set the world right again.
Why soon all we will be left to fume about is the demand for oil driving the price back over $150.00/barrel. !!

The Messiah is in his temple and Madam Pelosi is in her jet ........Happy days are surely here again!

Just forget about these bears looking in your window:



http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

Interesting chart, I remember seeing it before. If this follows the previous patterns, we should see the dow shoot back up to the 8400 range and then start heading back down to around 4500 range by December. Which would mean I was really off on my guess awhile back of a summer dow of 5000.

[Sixstrings]

I'll go ahead and call it -- dead cat bounce.

[jasonraymondson]

I'll go ahead and call it -- dead cat bounce.

The All powerful and mighty google seems to agree with you
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q ... afe=images

[SeaGypsy]

Interesting chart, I remember seeing it before. If this follows the previous patterns, we should see the dow shoot back up to the 8400 range and then start heading back down to around 4500 range by December. Which would mean I was really off on my guess awhile back of a summer dow of 5000.

Can you see the gray line Jason?
I can't see the blue getting above it in the next few months unless this cat is made of hard rubber. This seems unlikely given all the noise on the way down.

[eXpat]

I wanted to share this very nice (and long) article about how the "invisible hand" works. I´m reproducing just some selected parts:

The dollar's miraculous recovery, apparently thanks to large Wall Street firms, provides a rare glimpse into recent market interventions by the U.S. government. Rather than intervene directly in the markets themselves, the U.S. central bank [acting on treasury’s behalf] evidently gave instructions to trusted surrogates who did the Fed's bidding. Importantly, the Fed apparently did not merely provide instructions to each bank separately. Stephanopoulos stated that at the time of LTCM's collapse, "all of the banks got together" to prop up the currency markets." This was clearly a collaborative effort.

The LTCM revelation is also significant because it indicates that the Plunge Protection Team isn't merely concerned with the stability of the stock market. Supporting this, a report cited earlier from the Scotsman newspaper stated that in the aftermath of September 11, the PPT would "also attempt to deflect any pressure on commodity markets."

Taken together, these revelations demand a radical revision of prevailing beliefs about the current state of markets, not to mention the relationship between the private sector and the U.S. government. If major financial institutions are knowingly implementing government policy with regards to important markets, they have essentially become de facto agencies of the state. Just as importantly, the government's role has also changed markedly. Previously content not to intervene in certain spheres, now the Fed and Treasury apparently regard the stabilization of markets to be within their responsibilities.

The continuing silence of government officials about this expanded reach is easily explained. First, they no doubt recognize that an electorate supportive of free markets would frown upon market interventions. More pragmatically though, the government must also realize that to publicly acknowledge such activities would be to invite the greatest of moral hazard situations. To use a famous quote, the risks would be socialized while the rewards would remain privatized. Such a disconnect invites increasingly reckless speculation by investors who believe that the government stands ready to rescue them should crises arise.

Given the available information, we do not believe there can be any doubt that the U.S. government has intervened to support the stock market. Too much credible information exists to deny this. Yet virtually no one ever mentions government intervention publicly, preferring instead to pretend as if such activities have never taken place and never would. It is time that market participants, the media and, most of all, the government, acknowledge what should be blatantly obvious to anyone who reviews the public record on the matter: These markets have been interfered with on numerous occasions. Our primary concern is that what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/06/still-researching-corruption-at.html
and http://www.scribd.com/doc/11046124/The-Visible-Hand

[TheDude]

Which was when records began: For stocks, the worst decade ever

With two weeks to go in 2009, the declines since the end of 1999 make the last 10 years the worst calendar decade for stocks going back to the 1820s, when reliable stock market records begin, according to data compiled by Yale University finance professor William Goetzmann. He estimates it would take a 3.6% rise between now and year end for the decade to come in better than the 0.2% decline suffered by stocks during the Depression years of the 1930s. The past decade also well underperformed other decades with major financial panics, such as in 1907 and 1893.

"The last 10 years have been a nightmare, really poor," for U.S. stocks, said Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates. While the overall market trend has been a steady march upward, the last decade is a reminder that stocks can decline over long periods of time, he said. "It's not frequent, but it can happen," Mr. Gambera said. To some degree these statistics are a quirk of the calendar, based on when the 10-year period starts and finishes. The 10-year periods ending in 1937 and 1938 were worse than the most recent calendar decade because they capture the full effect of stocks hitting their peak in 1929 and the October crash of that year.

From 2000 through November 2009, investors would have been far better off owning bonds, which posted gains ranging from 5.6% to more than 8% depending on the sector, according to Ibbotson. Gold was the best-performing asset, up 15% a year this decade after losing 3% each year during the 1990s. This past decade looks even worse when the impact of inflation is considered. Since the end of 1999, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has lost an average of 3.3% a year on an inflation-adjusted basis, compared with a 1.8% average annual gain during the 1930s when deflation afflicted the economy, according to data compiled by Charles Jones, finance professor at North Carolina State University. His data use dividend estimates for 2009 and the consumer price index for the 12 months through November.

Even the 1970s, when a bear market was coupled with inflation, wasn't as bad as the most recent period. The S&P 500 lost 1.4% after inflation during that decade. That is especially disappointing news for investors, considering that a key goal of investing in stocks is to increase money faster than inflation. "This decade is the big loser," said Mr. Jones. For investors counting on stocks for retirement plans, the most recent decade means many have fallen behind retirement goals. Many financial plans assume a 10% annual return for stocks over the long term, but over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 is registering 8.2% annual gains.

How 'bout 'dem apples?

[dinopello]

How 'bout 'dem apples?

"Irrational Exuberance"

But, speaking of Apples, had you purchased $10,000 of Apple stock (AAPL) in January of 2001 and sold it yesterday you would have received $183,377 ...

[rangerone314]

How 'bout 'dem apples?

Jan 2001 was a pretty large peak in the overall stock market runup. "Irrational Exuberance"

But, speaking of Apples, had you purchased $10,000 of Apple stock (AAPL) in January of 2001 and sold it yesterday you would have received $183,377 ...

Did you know if you purchased a $5 lottery ticket you could have made $1,000,000?

And if you are much smarter than the market and the big players who have hordes of people to do analysis, and have inside information with no fear of getting caught...

Everyone THINKS they are above average lovers, drivers and investors. But averages are averages for a reason... LOL!

[dinopello]

How 'bout 'dem apples?

Jan 2001 was a pretty large peak in the overall stock market runup. "Irrational Exuberance"

But, speaking of Apples, had you purchased $10,000 of Apple stock (AAPL) in January of 2001 and sold it yesterday you would have received $183,377 ...

Did you know if you purchased a $5 lottery ticket you could have made $1,000,000?

And if you are much smarter than the market and the big players who have hordes of people to do analysis, and have inside information with no fear of getting caught...

Everyone THINKS they are above average lovers, drivers and investors. But averages are averages for a reason... LOL!

I changed my post by the way, since it was actually Jan 2000 that was the peak. But if you really view investing as a lottery, then you shouldn't be in stocks at all. Back in the day, they used to say, only invest in stock what you are prepared to lose. But overall, on average as you say, stocks outperform other types of investments. The days of every idiot becoming a millionaire off stocks are over, in my opinion. I've moved over to mostly dividend stocks and have been quite pleased. But my friend who invested in Apple throughout the decade despite me warning him of it being overvalued is paying off his home.