Newsseeker wrote:Loderunner wrote:There was really no talk about conservation. They are basically going with the assumption that alternatives will simply replace all the oil we currently use. That it's only a matter of timing, and not to worry, you can still have your suburban lifestyle. There were really no details explaining the enormity of the problem.
Coincidentally, oil is now up to $2.01 to $66.09 as I write this.
What else are we to expect from the government?
Well, if you read the report, you will see that they don't assume alternatives will replace "all the oil we currently use."
34% maybe, if the challenges are met and if the peak is delayed, and if the price of oil stays high.
We can only be assured of the last "if." Failing a depression.
If the peak is delayed, however, these technologies have a greater potential to mitigate the consequences. DOE projects that the technologies could displace up to 34 percent of U.S. consumption in the 2025 through 2030 time frame, if the challenges are met. The level of effort dedicated to overcoming challenges will depend in part on sustained high oil prices to encourage sufficient investment in and demand for alternatives.
34% by 2025/2030. Is this current consumption or projected?
If current, that means about 7mbpd.
If projected, that means about 10 mbpd.
If peak oil is now or before 2025, then that will be just peanuts.
I saw no discussion of projected decline rates in the report.