Appendices III and IV detail the potential increases in nonconventional supply, and also possible transportation alternatives, etc. as follows:
- Code: Select all
Item Effect on Production/Consumption page
Enhanced Oil Recovery 1 mbpd by 2015, 2.5 mbpd by 2025 54
Deepwater Drilling .7 mbpd by 2015 56
Oil Sands 1.9 mbpd by 2030 57
Heavy Oil 50,000 bpd in 5 years 59
Oil Shale 1 mbpd by 2015 60
Ethanol 9-18 billion gallons by 2015, 60 billion gal by 2025 63
Biodiesel increase 2.5 billion gallons by 2015 64
Coal GTL 80K bpd by 2015, 1.8 mbpd by 2030 65
Biomass GTL 1.4 mbpd by 2030 (none by 2015) 66
Natural Gas displacement 1500 million gallons per year (current) 67
Advanced Vehicle Technologies 20K b/d by 2010, 1.07 mbpd by 2025 68
Hydrogen vehicles .28 mbpd by 2025 70
So if everything goes perfectly, we might be able to find another 6-7 mbpd by 2025-2030 time frame using the above technology stuff and nonconventional supplies.
It also says that the EIA thinks consumption will increase about 7 mbpd by that time, to 27 mbpd. If you do the calculation on this, it means they are assuming only 1.1% annual demand growth. Thus far this year, the reality has been more like 2.5-3.5% most of the time.
So this means that if existing production constant (which it's not) and demand growth being about half of what it is, we might be close to avoiding any sort of shortage situation in that time frame.
So it never does come out and say "if oil peaks in this time frame we are hosed" but in essence, this is what the numbers say, because there is no way to scale up the alternatives fast enough.
The bibliography is on page 53, by the way, and includes all of the PO regulars, balanced by a similar number of cornucopians.