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The US Governmental Accountability Office (GAO) Thread (merg

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Aaron » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 10:44:34

sylviah wrote:I'm confused. The last two posts say they were posted on Friday March 30th 2007. Is PO.com getting messages from the future? Last I checked, today is Thursday, March 29th, 2007.


Yes we do... & the future says:

Thanks for nothing.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Bas » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 10:53:55

sylviah wrote:I'm confused. The last two posts say they were posted on Friday March 30th 2007. Is PO.com getting messages from the future? Last I checked, today is Thursday, March 29th, 2007.


The servers are on a secret and remote location somewhere in the south pacific, just across the date line 8)
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 11:13:21

Isn't this site hosted on a computer deep inside the pentagon (by the nuclear reactor)???
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 11:59:51

A Washington Post politics reporter took a question on this topic today at

Post Politics Hour - Lois Romano

Arlington, Va.: You probably won't take this question, because its not on "the list," but I'll ask anyway hoping that someone will look into it and maybe we'll see some follow-up someday. There is a press conference today by Reps. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) and Tom Udall (D-N.M.), between 11:30 am and 12:00 noon in HC-9 of the Capitol to discuss the release of an embargoed GAO report. The report will reveal the United States is particularly vulnerable to and unprepared to respond to severe consequences from an significant disruptions to world oil supplies from peak oil and other above-ground political and economic factors, which are viewd as an increasing risk. Some very real questions are how "severe" the consequences are and what "increasing risk" means -- and why no mainstream press will cover this.

Lois Romano: I can't tell you that the press won't cover it. It certainly sounds like story the way you have described it.
What list??
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 12:23:50

So was it on C-SPAN or anything?
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby chuck6877 » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 12:31:30

Leanan wrote:So was it on C-SPAN or anything?


I looked and never saw it.

If it was it would probably be on "C-SPAN 8, the OCHO" anyways :)

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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Pablo2079 » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 12:37:21

The "I told you so" won't be that great.... cause the family will then accuse me of not preparing enough.... or not trying hard enough to convince them.

It's a no win situation. That's why I don't talk about it much at home anymore. Wife thinks we should move into a bigger house and buy all sorts of other crap. I've successfully headed this off for about a year, but it hasn't been easy!

Hopefully, this report and other related news will start being reported on in the mainstream. It will make my homelife easier!
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby joewp » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 12:38:36

Joe P. joeparente.com
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Aaron » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 12:52:34

Overall, the report makes the point that, all other things equal, the faster the world consumes oil, the sooner we will use up the oil and reach a peak. The report also makes the point that future demand for oil, which depends on many factors, including world economic growth, will determine just how fast we consume oil.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby killJOY » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 12:55:58

This is so far looking like pabulum.

Four times I've seen the figure, "between now and 2040."

This looks like an attempt to bore people away from the topic.
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Pablo2079 » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:00:58

They do the switch from barrels to gallons to barrels in the document. That should help muddy the water.

The info on Oil Shale seems particulary optimistic.
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Bas » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:03:04

Such a peak may be involuntary if supply is unable to keep up with growing demand. Alternatively, a production peak could be brought about by voluntary reductions in oil consumption before physical limits to continued supply growth kick in


BWAHAHAHahaha!

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Last edited by Bas on Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:05:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby killJOY » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:05:16

Summary:

"Peak oil is coming. The timing is very uncertain. This could be very bad. We need to find ways to keep things running as they are."

I don't see anything new or interesting here. I'm going to re-read it tonight.
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:28:45

"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby simontay78 » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:28:49

Nasdaq Article on Gao's Report

US Auditor: Energy Dept Should Develop Plan For Peak Oil Era

By Ian Talley, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The U.S. Department of Energy and other federal agencies need to develop a strategy to mitigate the effects of a peak in oil production, which studies show could occur by 2040, a federal oversight body said Thursday.

While there was a great deal of uncertainty over the timing of peak oil because members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries don't open up their crude reserves for audit, the U.S. would be one of the hardest hit by a such a peak due to the nation's dependency on oil for transportation, according to a report issued by the Government Accountability Office.


more at Nasdaq Article on Gao's Report

Hey...I found out that Nasdaq's article had somehow changed the tone of Gao's report...2040? haa...Energybulletin version is better.

Congress' attention to the potential problem of peak oil illustrates how worries over energy prices have come to the forefront, especially after gasoline prices rose past $3 a gallon in many parts of the nation last year. The GAO recommendations come amid other government initiatives, such as targets for biofuel consumption, aimed at reducing U.S. dependency on crude.


Targets for Biofuel consumption?? Very bad reporting indeed...the energy bulletin report shows much more substance.
Last edited by simontay78 on Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:39:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby simontay78 » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 13:33:19

United Press International report on Gao's finding is better but energy bulletin version is much more detailed.

The GAO report also says the push toward alternative fuels and transportation technologies face challenges, including cost, that may hurt their ability to mitigate the consequences of a decline in production.

"For example, although corn ethanol production is technically feasible, it is more expensive to produce than gasoline and will require costly investments in infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage tanks, before it can become widely available as a primary fuel," it says.

It notes that key alternative technologies supply only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products, and by 2015, they could displace 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.


Gao's Report by Energy Bulletin...
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 14:05:12

The report is now up at the official GAO site:

http://www.gao.gov/docsearch/pastweek.html

You can download an abstract and highlights, as well as the full report.
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby seldom_seen » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 14:14:27

studies show could occur by 2040

I think we need a name for the common occurrence of authors writing about peak oil to recognize peak oil but conclude that its arrival date does not fall within the lifespan of the author.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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GAO Report on the Peak and Decline of Oil Production

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 14:27:30

CRUDE OIL:Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production

The U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward. Concerns about meeting increasing demand with finite resources have renewed interest in an old question: How long can the oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production—a peak—from which it can only decline?

GAO (1) examined when oil production could peak, (2) assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production, and (3) examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequences. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed studies, convened an expert panel, and consulted agency officials.


What GAO Found

Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil. Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation.


http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
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Re: GAO report on peak oil to be released

Unread postby Loderunner » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 14:32:06

There was really no talk about conservation. They are basically going with the assumption that alternatives will simply replace all the oil we currently use. That it's only a matter of timing, and not to worry, you can still have your suburban lifestyle. There were really no details explaining the enormity of the problem.

Coincidentally, oil is now up to $2.01 to $66.09 as I write this.
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