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THE [French] Total Oil Company Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby frankthetank » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 09:41:22

THE world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational.
The world is mistakenly focusing on oil reserves when the problem is capacity to produce oil, M de Margerie said in an interview with The Times. Forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), have failed to consider the speed at which new resources can be brought into production, he believes.

“Numbers like 120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never,” he said.


M de Margerie argued that the resources were simply not available. He said: “Take Qatar. How many projects can you have at the same time? You have more than 100,000 people working on sites. It’s a big city of contractors. Now they have the problem of having to build a new power plant to supply a city of contractors.”



and this...
The world was confusing the issue of reserves with the scale of the problem in producing those reserves. He said: “The oil reserves are there, that is the good news, but what we can bring on today to meet demand is limited by factors other than what scientists see in a lab or think-tanks.”

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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby Aaron » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 10:07:54

I attended an event at a Total refinery recently and the inside scoop says they understand PO perfectly well, as do all the oil majors & governments.

The implication is staggering of course, since if something could be done to avert the worst implications of peak production of oil at least some of these companies or governments would be singing it loud.

To be fair, Chavez has said his piece on peak, and some other smaller players, but the big boys still tow the line.

Face the facts boys & girls... you are all unnecessary by-products of a consumer culture created by greedy old men, & perpetuated by greedy young ones.

We are now at that uncomfortable point when the waiter arrives with the check, & nobody can believe we all spent so much money on a single meal, as we nervously peer into each others eyes wondering who will speak up & volunteer to pay the bill.

You may commence the wailing & gnashing of teeth now.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby Novus » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 10:38:06

Essentially he gave the full definition of Peak Oil when he could have just said two words. Oil will peak and decline. Economists think pumping oil is like logging a rain forest. Just keep logging until it is all gone. Thankfully geology does not work that way.
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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby clv101 » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 11:05:00

I think this is a very important statement especially coming from someone who should really know the score. The Oil Drum
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby sameu » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 12:36:02

pfrt I could have told you the same :-)
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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby coyote » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 14:21:49

Aaron wrote:We are now at that uncomfortable point when the waiter arrives with the check, & nobody can believe we all spent so much money on a single meal, as we nervously peer into each others eyes wondering who will speak up & volunteer to pay the bill.

Jethro Tull wrote:Well the lush separation unfolds you --
And the products of wealth
Push you along on the bow wave
Of the spiritless undying selves.
And you press on god’s waiter your last dime --
As he hands you the bill.
And you spin in the slipstream --
Timeless -- unreasoning --
Paddle right out of the mess.
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby Grimnir » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 20:15:55

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/artic ... 87,00.html

THE world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational.
...
“Numbers like 120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never,” he said.
...
The IEA was mistaken in using recovery factors that failed to consider the timing of new resources coming on stream. M De Margerie said. The world was confusing the issue of reserves with the scale of the problem in producing those reserves. He said: “The oil reserves are there, that is the good news, but what we can bring on today to meet demand is limited by factors other than what scientists see in a lab or think-tanks.”
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Re: Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 20:21:56

I really believe 85 mbpd is all the earth will ever produce at one time. Decline will keep new production even. How long will the plateau last before we start the downslope ? No way of knowing untill after. But we are definitely at the top of Hubberts peak.
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Re: Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby coyote » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 21:50:35

Do you base your belief on Deffeyes Thanksgiving date? Or something else?
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 08 Apr 2006, 21:53:07

Deffeys and all the info i have gathered over the past 2 yrs. We are at peak no doubt.
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Re: Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby Gvil » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 00:55:25

I agree... You have a great article about production.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/4/3/235314/3734
:(
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Re: Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 08:30:11

Things are even worse, as to stand still at 85bmd, we'll have to deal with heavier and heavier oil, meaning EROEI will start to get bad.
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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby nth » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 11:00:57

I wonder what is the oil production rate they think we will top out at.
I know they stated not even 100mbpd.
Do they think 90mbpd is possible?

I am beginning to question if we will achieve 90mbpd.
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Re: Total says 120mbpd...never!

Unread postby Grimnir » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 12:14:11

There's already another thread on this:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic18949.html
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Re: Total Executive: "World Cannot Meet Oil Demand"

Unread postby nth » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 13:31:37

Gvil wrote:I agree... You have a great article about production.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/4/3/235314/3734
:(


I thought the conclusion of that article was that there was no significant news to point to up or down as far as peak production.

I guess people who believe 85mbpd and are following production issues very carefully must be thinking decline rates will accelerate in North Sea, GoM including Pemex, and maybe other declines elsewhere to. If these declines do not accelerate faster than predicted, then the next couple of years will see over 1mbpd increase in production. I am not betting on that, but do fail to see 85mbpd as the top. I do agree we are at a plateau give or take 4 mbpd. I have a hard time seeing 90mbpd. I also have a hard time seeing 85mbpd is peak. I also see 80mbpd minimum production lasting till 2015. I don't have much data on new projects post 2015 to decide if 80+mbpd can continue past that. With so many brown fields in the world, it is hard to see very clearly, and very pessimistic we can increase production significantly.
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Senior Total executive: "the real problem with peak oil

Unread postby thorn » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 09:36:44

Senior Total executive: "the real problem with peak oil"
http://www.eurotrib.com/?op=displaystor ... 193511/863


People are failing to deal with the reality of the price, which has nothing to do with speculators or even any lack of reserves, which are ample. "It is a problem of capacities and of timing," de Margerie says. "This is the real problem of peak oil."

The oil is there, he says, but the amount you can deliver today depends on how many wells you can drill and how fast you can deplete an oilfield, not to mention gaining the co- operation of governments, which guard access to the precious resource jealously. There is no prospect of reaching the lofty peaks that economists at the International Energy Agency, predict will be needed to satisfy world demand for oil.

...

There are not enough engineers, rigs, pipelines and drillers to increase current world output of 85 million barrels per day to 120 million, he says.

It would be possible only in a world without politics, he says. "If there were no Americans, no Iranians, no English, no French and no Italians. Not a world I know."




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TOTAL expect peak in 2020

Unread postby SoothSayer » Wed 07 Jun 2006, 08:59:42

TOTAL expect peak Oil in 2020 if we have 2% demand growth.

They say that this could be postponed 10 years if we can get demand growth down to 1%.

Link to Reuters article.
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Re: TOTAL expect peak in 2020

Unread postby mekrob » Wed 07 Jun 2006, 09:23:10

Holy shit. I'm surprised they would actually say this. Or is this thing not so rare for european companies? This is the first time I've really heard they acknowledge peak oil and state those two words as well. Better than in America where we laugh at PO.
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Re: TOTAL expect peak in 2020

Unread postby SoothSayer » Wed 07 Jun 2006, 09:27:18

So really all we are doing now is arguing about the date.

How long did Hirsch say we needed to prepare?

How many preparations can you see being put in place?

Hmmm ...
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Re: TOTAL expect peak in 2020

Unread postby Sleepybag » Wed 07 Jun 2006, 09:33:35

Besides that, the World Gas Conference is attended by a lot of important people, including several ministers and CEOs of oil companies. Saying Peak Oil is coming around in 14 years time can be considered a break through.
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