[yull]

Wow. Look at this too: http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=69

IEA chief economist Fatih Birol has told lastoilshock.com that the agency will review its use of resource estimates from the United States Geological Survey, in a move that seems certain to prompt a major downward revision of its long term oil production forecast.

Looks like the game is up. A bombshell, perhaps the biggest news yet in regards to oil? Official acceptance?

Us peak oil loonies were right all along it seems!

[Leanan]

Bart of Energy Bulletin says he thinks it's a sea change. Not just those two stories, but Voice of America sending a camera crew to cover the ASPO conference, the IEA warning that prices will only go higher, and Sadad al-Huseini admitting that the big jump in OPEC reserves in the '80s aren't real.

[mattduke]

Wow. Hey. Great. Thanks for the early warning heads up.


"The world’s capacity to produce oil will fall well short of official forecasts, the chief executive of Total warned on Wednesday

In an unusually stark prediction for the head of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, Christophe de Margerie, CEO of the French group, said it would be difficult to reach even 100m barrels a day. "


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0d83bfa-87df ... ck_check=1

[emersonbiggins]

Well, the French usually are the first to surrender...

(sorry, couldn't resist and, yes, I've read the War Nerd's account. no, I do not agree with the above statement )

[Starvid]

I think this might very well be the moment.

Peak oil has been simmering in the mainstream for the last two years, and the record oil prices have sent the journalists scrambling for answers.

[ohanian]

[MD]

Which means people will change the way they use energy.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Not necessarily. As the father of modern economics once noted certain items that are considered "must have" items like bread do not follow the standard supply and demand curves.

Instead if their supply maintains its current trend, their demand and cost will rise or stay the same regardless of and the supply.

It was noted that when an economic collapse happens, these "must have" items defy rules for "supply and demand" traditional graph.

[Graeme]

Total: World oil output to reach 95 million b/d by 2020

Worldwide oil production will stabilize at about 95 million b/d before 2020, including extra heavy crude from Venezuela and Canada, said Total SA Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie based on a long-term, internal company oil study, just released.

Energy savings and efficiency are therefore "absolutely necessary" to limit an ever-increasing demand pulled along by emerging countries and transport with an ever stronger focus on light products, the study said.

A further 5 million b/d might be added with products processed from biofuels, gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids, condensates, LPG, and the addition of refining gains, raising to 100 million b/d the overall oil supply to which the world will have to adapt within the time frame, the study said.

"A very ambitious plateau, which will be difficult to uphold," De Margerie said.


Total's "energy vision" is that by 2030 the share of fossil energies in the energy mix would still be about 75%. While in 2005 energy fossils accounted for 81% of the mix—of which 35% was for oil and 21% for gas—by 2030 oil will account for 30% and gas for 22%. Coal, nuclear, hydro, biofuels, biomass outside biofuels, and renewables will account for the rest.

pennenergy

[Cashmere]

In unrelated news, I expect to grow another 12" in my 40s.

[Starvid]

What are you complaining at?

Total, one of the main companies constituting Big Oil, is calling the peak. Read this again:

Worldwide oil production will stabilize at about 95 million b/d before 2020

[TonyPrep]

I thought worldwide oil production had already stabilised at 86 mbpd. Does de Margerie imagine that oil production is increasing right now?

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

TOTAL CALLS THE PEAK!!!!

Er, too bad they missed it by 14 years.

[Twilight]

What are you complaining at?

Total, one of the main companies constituting Big Oil, is calling the peak.

That's like a graduate student winning a spelling bee. Big whoop. A willingness to accept the concept of peak was impressive at the start of this decade. Now it is just a source of irritation. They get no cookie from me.

[Peleg]

What are you complaining at?

Total, one of the main companies constituting Big Oil, is calling the peak.

That's like a graduate student winning a spelling bee. Big whoop. A willingness to accept the concept of peak was impressive at the start of this decade. Now it is just a source of irritation. They get no cookie from me.

Well, can we at least admit that they are walking the fine line of not causing an immediate panic and also telling everyone that the future of oil is limited? Everyone who knows anything about the global economy knows that any sort of hiderance in supply growth is at the very least a major necessity for change in how we get our energy. I did appreciate the subtleness of their 'extra heavy crude.' Meaning EROEI of something like 2. So, basically, since we know that LSC has peaked, you are going to get that extra 10 mbpd by burning about 30 mpbd to turn oil laden dirt into synthetic oil. He gave us no olive branch on price. The age of cheap oil is over, the age of cheap energy is over, at least until demand has gotten the message about supply constraints.

I actually believe the majors are soft-serving this big time. I think that the system as we know it will not survive even the revelation that we are moving from a 40:1 EROEI regime to a 5:1 regime (I'm estimating the effect of what we call net oil, or peak energy, or something like that I forget the 'official' term.) So everything now has this multiple of eight needed in terms of work to get the same amount of energy. That is going to effect prices, constrain growth and ultimately prove the undoing of the global energy market. That said the tyranny of the global financial market will not end yet, but I believe will be bolstered in time by a short lived world political union where the religion of the masses will be the most deceptive form of liberal humanism.

And yes, during that time real Christians will be persecuted for simply believing what the Bible says. After that Christ returns.

So host that for mixing paradigms. Still, even if you reject the faith of which I speak, the analysis of the oil market is corroborated by the testimony of many trusted experts. The goose is cooked, and it's a tough bird.

[Twilight]

Well, can we at least admit that they are walking the fine line of not causing an immediate panic and also telling everyone that the future of oil is limited?

Alarm is necessary to spur action. Adaptation requires some form of stress as an instigator, in the human world and the animal kingdom alike. Hubbert relied on reason alone in 1956 to advocate change and never stood a chance. We do not respond well to reason unless accompanied by stress. The oil shocks of the 70s were our best shot, unpleasant though they were. They introduced insecurity and that got results. The only tragedy was the stress did not remain in place long enough for effective follow-through.

Our present predicament is a legacy of those wasted years. Avoding panic amounts to avoiding giving people a reason to change their ways. Stress is a powerful motivator. Its most common guise is the plethora of economic incentives that underpin a market, though they are rarely recognised as such. In the interests of saving people from fear, the entire problem is being obscured. In the interests of saving people from fear, they continue to be told that energy prices are a speculative bubble and the result of uncompetitive practices, with eventual resolution by third party naturally being implied. The effect of this is a substantial countering of the economic incentive to switch to a higher-efficiency vehicle. A helpful stress response is postponed.

The instinct on the part of technocrats to minimise untidiness is something I can understand, but this has even been nullifying price signals up to this point! They cannot see the damage they are doing. Some surely do, but are bound by organisational cultural intertia. This policy is dysfunctional.

This is an unpopular stance, but fear is healthy. Rational fear helps you avoid harm. Individuals, societies, they need it. Instead we do not allow people real fears and replace them with irrational ones that are more easily controlled and disposed of. In my opinion this represents a strategic failure of influence. Where is the expectation management? Above all that is what we need, and we need it yesterday.

[MD]

... The oil shocks of the 70s were our best shot, unpleasant though they were. They introduced insecurity and that got results. The only tragedy was the stress did not remain in place long enough for effective follow-through.
...

And the facts of that failure have deeply reinforced resistance to market signals this time through. Big Money has been very resistant to alternatives because it was burned so badly the first time through.

As soon as they are convinced that no one can re flood the market with cheap crude, capital will flow into alternatives like there's no tomorrow.

We've rounded that knee, I believe.

{got any chocolate-chip?}

[Twilight]

... The oil shocks of the 70s were our best shot, unpleasant though they were. They introduced insecurity and that got results. The only tragedy was the stress did not remain in place long enough for effective follow-through.
...

And the facts of that failure have deeply reinforced resistance to market signals this time through. Big Money has been very resistant to alternatives because it was burned so badly the first time through.

As soon as they are convinced that no one can re flood the market with cheap crude, capital will flow into alternatives like there's no tomorrow.

We've rounded that knee, I believe.

{got any chocolate-chip?}

I agree absolutely. Sure, you can have a cookie. Be sure to eat it quick though, it expires in 24 hours.

Off-topic, when did you become Community Manager? What does the role entail? That sounds like the sort of position ISPs have for being the voice of PR to users when service is unexpectedly degraded.

[MD]

...

Off-topic, when did you become Community Manager? What does the role entail? That sounds like the sort of position ISPs have for being the voice of PR to users when service is unexpectedly degraded.

Oh, I hope not. We're trying to march forward, not degrade.

If our Moderators are Teachers, then I guess I'd be the Vice Principal's Office.

Behave now and no running in the halls!