[NEOPO]

13.6 years

[Sleepybag]

They didn't say what day in 2020. It could be January 1st, or December 31st.
Hirsch estimated we needed at least 20 years for a transition, so we are going to hit the wall, whatever we do.

[nero]

Wow. Can't get more mainstream than that.

The world of oil is a pretty strange place where the head of a major oil producer call's on government to limit demand for his principle product and where the head of the oil cartel calls on his competitors to produce more.

[Cynus]

History suggests that the majors are overly optimistic. They didn't see a peak in the North Sea until 2010, so if they're off by 10 years again, their prediction fits just right with the ASPO. But maybe they learned from their mistakes and are right this time.

[Concerned]

Wow. Can't get more mainstream than that.

The world of oil is a pretty strange place where the head of a major oil producer call's on government to limit demand for his principle product and where the head of the oil cartel calls on his competitors to produce more.

It suggests to me that PO is becoming a run away train.

There is not enough oil able to be extracted fast enough to keep up with demand. Hence the comments to reduce demand and increase production. In the context of PO it makes perfect sense, in a business as usual world it would cause you to scratch your head.

[nth]

Don't get your hopes too high.
If I am not mistaken, EIA has claimed PO for late 1990's(?) back in the 70's. I don't remember exactly.

[whereagles]

History suggests that the majors are overly optimistic. They didn't see a peak in the North Sea until 2010, so if they're off by 10 years again, their prediction fits just right with the ASPO. But maybe they learned from their mistakes and are right this time.

Well, maybe them majors learned from their previous mistakes and got it right this time

/sarcasm off

[clv101]

This isn't the first we've heard from Total. Their head of exploration was far more realistic back in April. He said:

The world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising projections of demand for fuel over the next decade.

And that:

120 million barrels per day will never be reached, never.

The Oil Drum

[Tuike]

Here the story has been picked up by Kauppalehti and Talentum which are business news publications.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Oil executives tend to deride the notion of peak oil, the point at which production starts to decline. Figures like BP Plc's (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive John Browne usually insist there is plenty of oil left and say some previous predictions of peak oil have turned out to be false.

Nonetheless, most analysts say the increasing difficulty and expense the industry faces in raising production will ensure oil prices do not return to historical low levels for many years, if at all.

This is my favorite part. Aka: there's no such thing as peak oil, but were having problems getting at the rest of it and its getting more expensive. but hey, theres lots left.

/sarcasm off

[sameu]

gooooo! msm

[KeeperC]

The Times, 8th September 2006

THE world will struggle to raise oil output to levels much greater than 100 million barrels per day, Thierry Desmarest, chief executive of Total, has given warning.

The head of the French energy multinational is sceptical that the global oil industry can raise output from current levels of 85 million bpd to meet demand forecasts by the International Energy Agency of 120 million bpd by 2030.


Article and Graphic

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

In other news Total chief crowned, "Master of Understatement."

[Fergus]

Oh I dont like it when oil company execs start talking all doomerish. It really ratchets my doomerocity up a level or two, and I am already more doomerish then I want to be.

[frankthetank]

Lies lies lies lies lies. We all know that hybrid mutant poplars are going to be planted on endless acres of unused rainforest to make endless millions of barrels per day of high quality black crude. This man should be imprisoned and tortured for talking up such ludicris thoughts.

[Twilight]

Can't link to a hosted version, but check back here or Reuters sometime.

Speaking at a conference, the CEO of Total said 100 mb/d would be "extremely difficult to achieve" and asked people not to take the figure for granted. He blamed "depletion rates in existing fields" for the problem, and said within 13 years the world would struggle to replace depletion from existing fields with new capacity.

He also attacked oil service companies for pricing projects out of existence, and said the oil price was no longer driven purely by supply and demand, but by engineering costs.

[seahorse2]

Yes, isn't it funny how the oil companies hate regulation until they have to pay more to service companies under the law of supply and demand.

[frankthetank]

Someone should get him and George Will into a meeting together and televise it. George can tell him how wrong he has that PHD in geology!!

Interesting stuff from TOTAL CEO... Just more proof that we are or near peak...

[Aaron]

I have worked with a few Total folks recently & I can report that as a company they are quite peak aware.

All of em are... just scared to mention it.

[Leanan]

Financial Times:

The world’s capacity to produce oil will fall well short of official forecasts, the chief executive of Total warned on Wednesday

In an unusually stark prediction for the head of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, Christophe de Margerie, CEO of the French group, said it would be difficult to reach even 100m barrels a day.

The International Energy Agency, the rich countries’ watchdog, in its “business as usual” projections, has said oil supply will reach 116m barrels a day by 2030, up from about 85m b/d today. The US government has a similar forecast of 118m b/d in 2030, including a relatively small contribution from biofuels.

Mr de Margerie, however, said while forecasts could always change, “100m barrels [per day] . . . is now in my view an optimistic case”.

He added: “It is not my view: it is the industry view, or the view of those who like to speak clearly, honestly, and not . . . just try to please people.”