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THE Tanker [ship] Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of crude

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 23:01:46

4,500 tons of crude oil spill from Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean
Mon Aug 14 2006 23:42:39 ET:
About 4,500 tons of crude oil are believed to have spilled in the Indian Ocean from a tanker operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. after the tanker collided with a cargo vessel, the Japanese shipping company said Tuesday.
It may be the largest oil spill accident involving a Japanese tanker, KYODO wire reports.
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby Lighthouse » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 23:32:40

4500 tons. Ho many barrels are this?
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby joewp » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 23:34:54

Lighthouse wrote:4500 tons. Ho many barrels are this?

Use the EIA Kid's page calulator
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 00:57:03

So...around 33,000 barrels.

You know, this is going to happen more and more often as markets get tighter.
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 01:17:14

Dreamtwister wrote:So...around 33,000 barrels. You know, this is going to happen more and more often as markets get tighter.

I do not understand why? The tighter market, the less crude to carry, means lower risk of accident.
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby ClassicSpiderman » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 03:00:46

EnergyUnlimited wrote:I do not understand why? The tighter market, the less crude to carry, means lower risk of accident.

I think what he means is that as the spare capacity to deliver crude oil becomes tighter, that regulation and safety will be sacrificed in order to ensure the supply.
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby Etalon » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 03:08:12

Commercial vessels are notorious for very lax watch keeping. They tend to sit inside the bridge, relying on shipping lanes and radar to keep them safe. Shipwrecked sailors know the best ship to encounter is a military vessel, as they have good watch keeping. Your probably more likely to get run down by a commercial ship than rescued by it.

That said, a collision between two large ships? Both would show up on both ships radar.. how did they manage to do this? That really is some lax watch keeping.
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby Fergus » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 07:38:02

joewp wrote:
Lighthouse wrote:4500 tons. Ho many barrels are this?
Use the EIA Kid's page calulator

Sweet link. Thanks.
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 07:49:43

Etalon wrote:Commercial vessels are notorious for very lax watch keeping. They tend to sit inside the bridge, relying on shipping lanes and radar to keep them safe.
Shipwrecked sailors know the best ship to encounter is a military vessel, as they have good watch keeping. Your probably more likely to get run down by a commercial ship than rescued by it.
That said, a collision between two large ships? Both would show up on both ships radar.. how did they manage to do this? That really is some lax watch keeping.

They could be drunk like Exxon Valdez crew (and captain).
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Re: Japanese tanker in Indian Ocean spills 4,500 tons of cru

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 10:42:05

ClassicSpiderman wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:I do not understand why? The tighter market, the less crude to carry, means lower risk of accident.
I think what he means is that as the spare capacity to deliver crude oil becomes tighter, that regulation and safety will be sacrificed in order to ensure the supply.

Yeah, what you said. Thanks Spidey.
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Oil tanker capacity increase outpaces demand

Unread postby nth » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 16:10:37

Platts

Not only do we have a glut in refined-oil tanker per this article, but we are getting new shipyards ramping up production for the next few years.(see China and South Korea) We will not be restrained on oil tanker capacity at all, unless Iran starts sinking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
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Re: Oil tanker capacity increase outpaces demand

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 17:51:51

nth wrote:Platts Not only do we have a glut in refined-oil tanker per this article, but we are getting new shipyards ramping up production for the next few years.(see China and South Korea) We will not be restrained on oil tanker capacity at all, unless Iran starts sinking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Hang on a bloody dang second here, I have been hearing for YEARS that we are about to have a tanker shortage because all the single hull tankers are being scrapped due to new international laws, now you are saying we have a tanker glut? Who is telling the truth?
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Re: Oil tanker capacity increase outpaces demand

Unread postby nth » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 18:15:31

Tanada, Both perspectives are semi correct. The ones calling for shortage gave reasons that are correct, but they underestimated the number of ships being built and the number of orders submitted. They were expecting delays and lack of orders. Instead, shipyards work faster than anticipated and new yards ramped up. Ship owners also were ordering record number of ships. They also over estimated the demand of ships as they assumed Asia will suck up any lax in demand.

As for the glut side, they are telling you a future snapshot. It is difficult to gage how much future demand is required due to amount of oil and where they are from or ship to. Nevertheless, there were no shortage of oil tankers during the past few years and since oil production did not increase drastically, we will not have oil tanker shortages in the future either. But this is not to say that shipping fees will not rise as it is possible to hit tight demand/supply of ships.
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Re: Oil tanker capacity increase outpaces demand

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 24 Oct 2006, 18:16:56

Tanada wrote:
nth wrote:Platts Not only do we have a glut in refined-oil tanker per this article, but we are getting new shipyards ramping up production for the next few years.(see China and South Korea) We will not be restrained on oil tanker capacity at all, unless Iran starts sinking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
Hang on a bloody dang second here, I have been hearing for YEARS that we are about to have a tanker shortage because all the single hull tankers are being scrapped due to new international laws, now you are saying we have a tanker glut? Who is telling the truth? Sorry if I sound cranky but I have a head cold and my irritibillity level is way up!

Single-hull ships are being phased out in many markets in favor of double-hull ships that are less likely to spill oil. The US has the Jones Act, which requires single-hull tankers at the age of 35 to be retired. There are a significant amount of tankers that old.

On the other hand, keep in mind that oil exports, and the demand for tankers,will peak before total peak oil production peaks - as producers keep more oil for their growing populations.
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Re: Oil tanker capacity increase outpaces demand

Unread postby nth » Wed 25 Oct 2006, 14:16:48

DantesPeak wrote:On the other hand, keep in mind that oil exports, and the demand for tankers,will peak before total peak oil production peaks - as producers keep more oil for their growing populations.

Yes! Demand will peak before peak production. Also, capacity of tankers will definitely overshoot demand, and by a lot before PO.
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Oil Tanker Stocks Fall

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 09:47:30

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks of companies that own and operate crude oil tankers finished lower Monday after rates for the vessels plunged more than 20 percent on supply concerns.

In a client note, Jefferies & Co. analyst Douglas J. Mavrinac said rates for crude oil tankers took a hit last week when OPEC said crude exports would not increase in August as expected, and maintenance in some Asian refineries lowered demand and led to a tanker surplus.

Mavrinac said tanker rates should remain weak until a possible rebound in fall or winter, when OPEC is expected to increase production to satisfy fourth-quarter demand.


Oil Tanker Stocks Fall

I have been following Frontline (FRO) because I helped a buddy make a trade of $50k into this stock. I warned him that if PO hit the headlines or if Oil exports declined he should move out of this stock. He was lured by the lucrative dividends this stock is paying out. I guess I’ll break the bad news to him this afternoon. He actually has made about 12k since the investment. Time to bail!
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Re: Oil Tanker Stocks Fall

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 10:09:43

Yup. They'll join the empty cruise ships and sit at anchor someday.
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Re: Oil Tanker Stocks Fall

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 10:27:39

I wouldn't worry too much about that. Oil tankers have an average lifetime of around 25 years meaning, one would presume, about 4% are taken out of service annually. The demand for huge tankers will remain for quite a few more years and someone has to build them.
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Re: Oil Tanker Stocks Fall

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 10:36:54

eastbay wrote:I wouldn't worry too much about that. Oil tankers have an average lifetime of around 25 years meaning, one would presume, about 4% are taken out of service annually. The demand for huge tankers will remain for quite a few more years and someone has to build them.


Let's say the market has an anticipation of 95 mbpd 2010 and the shipbuilders are building ships for such an anticipation. Then the world peaks at 85 mbpd and declining. the demand for said ships drops leaving a glut of ships causing there to be a drop in demand therefore in price as well. Is this logical thinking?
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Re: Oil Tanker Stocks Fall

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 10:47:36

Frontline fell 10 to 291 on renewed concerns about weakening charter rates, dealers said.

Traders in Oslo cited a report in today's Finansavisen newspaper pointing out that, despite strong crude prices, tanker rates have dropped steadily in recent weeks, with rates for VLCCs coming west from the Gulf now falling below 21,000 usd per day.

Analysts have frequently raised concerns about the impact excess capacity will have on charter rates as new vessels enter the market.


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