THE T. Boone Pickens Thread (merged)

by **AirlinePilot** » Mon 02 May 2005, 15:29:57

Mr Pickens was just on CNBC's closing bell segment and basically said the words out loud. Peak world production. Demand outstriping supply by the 4th quarter, maybe sooner. No excess production coming on line anywhere. He predicted 60$/bbl by the end of the summer and 3+/gallon here in the states this year. This guy is not usually wrong when it comes to this stuff.

It doesn't get any more mainstream than this. Maria Bartiromo didn't quite get what he was saying I think. She asked even though there has been a good run amongst energy stocks as of late when will there be a pullback? T. Boone didnt even miss a beat, he said he didnt think there will be one!

by **RonMN** » Mon 02 May 2005, 15:42:09

WOW! I wish i would have seen that!

by **AirlinePilot** » Mon 02 May 2005, 15:59:42

I keep CNBC on in the background around the house when Im doing stuff. Caught that he would be on today this morning, so I made it a point to sit and listen. Made my duaghter listen too. He actually suggested investment in SunCor as one of his favorites.

by **DriveElectric** » Mon 02 May 2005, 16:05:13

Many of the CNBC idiots view oil prices as just another market or stock ticker. So many of them keep referring to the oil market as in a "bubble" similar to internet stocks or housing prices. They really just do not understand the concept of oil depletion causing widespread issues for society at large.

by **threadbear** » Mon 02 May 2005, 16:09:49

Boone Pickins is the most compromised piece of--never mind. He's crediting peak oil because he can make money off the theory, period, end of story, it has nothing to do with honesty. The truth is only approached obliquely, by the mainstream when some creep like Pickens stands to make a fortune by inadvertantly touching on it.

by **AirlinePilot** » Mon 02 May 2005, 16:16:55

threadbear,

While I don't deny your premise, I do raise the BS flag on that post. Pickens, whether you like him or not has been right far more than he is wrong, whether it benefits him or not. He has been recognized as one of the old heads that knows what he is talking about.

His take on this seems to be right on the money. In the end I guess it is possible he is manipulating us , just like you would probably say the government and all the other large oil corporations are too. Frankly I don't believe that. It's a matter of opinion really and I don't agree with yours.

by **Grimnir** » Mon 02 May 2005, 16:25:42

The problem in this and other matters is that the people who are most qualified to make predictions on any given subject are often the ones who stand to gain or lose based on the outcome. It only makes sense; if you're in the oil business you'll make sure you know everything you can about oil, and that will leave you in a good position to make predictions. If you start discounting the opinion of everyone with a vested interest, you won't have much left to go on.

by **tdrive** » Mon 02 May 2005, 17:07:16

This guy is not usually wrong when it comes to this stuff.

Caveat emptor.

I tend to take whatever Mr. Boone Pickens say with a pinch
of salt, given that he is really not impartial at all. He has a pony
in the game and would say anything to make profit.
Knowledgeable people say he has large long open positions
in crude 2010 and later, so he is sitting pretty.
That is not to say he is wrong, but that does not mean he is
entirely right, either.

Cheers,

by **tdrive** » Mon 02 May 2005, 17:26:34

threadbear wrote:Boone Pickins is the most compromised piece of--never mind. He's crediting peak oil because he can make money off the theory, period, end of story, it has nothing to do with honesty. The truth is only approached obliquely, by the mainstream when some creep like Pickens stands to make a fortune by inadvertantly touching on it.

Dude:
Hate to say that, but Mr. Boone Pickens is actually helping, since he is one of the market drivers to the price going up. The only way the economy and the society can notice the issue of hydrocarbon depletion and prepare for a transition is via market signals such as high energy prices, which will rise to a backstop level of an alternative replacement. We currently do not know what this is, it could be a demand destruction, massive die-off, a new energy source, whatever.

The only way this could happen is if elements like Mr. Boone Pickens drive the price up. If you think that you just mention hydrocarbon depletion to people and they slap their foreheads and start riding bycicles to work and install solars and windmills, you are in for a big surprise. The only way to wake people up is to hit them where it hurst most - IN THE POCKET!

In the process, people like Mr. Boone Pickens have to make money, which is in a way a fee paid to them by the society for being woken up to the reality. Whether this is moral or ethical or fair is same as asking "How many angels can dance on the head of a needle?"
I challenge anyone to dispute what I just said.

by **MicroHydro** » Mon 02 May 2005, 17:35:47

tdrive wrote:
This guy is not usually wrong when it comes to this stuff.

Caveat emptor. I tend to take whatever Mr. Boone Pickens say with a pinch of salt, given that he is really not impartial at all. He has a pony in the game and would say anything to make profit. Knowledgeable people say he has large long open positions in crude 2010 and later, so he is sitting pretty. That is not to say he is wrong, but that does not mean he is entirely right, either.

Well, I am sitting right beside Boone, long in 2010 and 2011 - I bet half of my life savings on long oil. So go pony.

by **tdrive** » Mon 02 May 2005, 17:41:03

MicroHydro wrote:TWell, I am sitting right beside Boone, long in 2010 and 2011 - I bet half of my life savings on long oil. So go pony.

Joined: Apr 10, 2005 Posts: 104
Location: Silicon Valley, California, USA

What's your zip code?

by **BigBear** » Mon 02 May 2005, 18:14:37

Mr. Pickens is an old man and a multi-billionarie---you actually believe a man so rich who will likely be dead by 2010 has anything to gain!!! He is telling the truth -- if all of you that deny him ----would do your homework and drum up some courage---- you would believe him also.

by **threadbear** » Mon 02 May 2005, 20:09:44

AirlinePilot wrote:threadbear,
While I don't deny your premise, I do raise the BS flag on that post. Pickens, whether you like him or not has been right far more than he is wrong, whether it benefits him or not. He has been recognized as one of the old heads that knows what he is talking about.
His take on this seems to be right on the money. In the end I guess it is possible he is manipulating us , just like you would probably say the government and all the other large oil corporations are too. Frankly I don't believe that. It's a matter of opinion really and I don't agree with yours.

Your naivete on this issue, is none of my concern, but others should be protected from it.

I actually think there is something to peak oil. However, I know there are a lot of scumbags out there anxious to turn a major challenge into a nightmare of manipulation (150 bucks a barrel, overnight) to make a tidy profit, before they quickly pull out of the game. I don't trust people like Pickens, and I suggest others do the same.

Though I have some money in energy stocks, I would NEVER place it all in oil. How on earth can anyone know if this isn't the biggest sucker's game on the planet right now. Big Oil is squeezing every last cent out of the average Joe, getting him to pay high prices at the pump, and then encouraging him to invest in energy stocks with the change that's left over. And who better a mouthpiece for this bunch of hoods, than Pickens?

While all this is happening, companies like BP (Beyond Petroleum) form a consortium of **"oil companies concerned about peak oil" and through their research and development (using average Joe's lunch money) come up with a reasonable alternative. Who gets left holding the bag?

This has nothing to do with Peak Oil, and everything to do with manipulation. Peak cheap oil is only a part of the equation, and now the theory has hit the mainstream, it's going to become part of Barnum's "Biggest Show on Earth" which will appeal to all the morons who just haven't had enough 401k pain yet.

**OCCPO--Can't you just see it now?

by **SidneyTawl** » Mon 02 May 2005, 20:22:04

TBoone has used the word peak before. He has used it several times on CNBC. T B is also in the process of buying up water rights currently. He isn't out of the money game. He say's he is buying water, not oil.

What's fun to watch is the reporter's on the shows reactions when he uses the word "Peak" in relation to the oil price. They either play dumb or they go out of their way to change the subject and move on. No follow up ever.

What T B P is doing is using the word Peak in his interviews. Now, he may be gaining, but several here are investing because they believe that it will benefit them. Many old timers remember T B. and the same goes for Jan Lundberg. When you can use names like that in explaining Peak oil to joe schmoe, it isn't a negative in my opinion.

Matt Simmons is about to make some money doing it. He will hit the circuit soon for promotion.

So where's the beef imo

by **Ebyss** » Mon 02 May 2005, 20:45:20

His motivation for talking about Peak oil is irrelevant. He will either be right or wrong. The question is where is he putting his own money? If he doesn't follow his own advice, no-one else will. It would appear, if he is so rich, that he has been right many times.

by **DriveElectric** » Mon 02 May 2005, 20:56:41

When discussing PO, if we only listen to people who have no vested interest in the topic (oil business, books, etc) then there will be nobody to listen to. Matt Simmons (often cited here on this website) owns an investment bank that is heavily invested in energy.

by **AirlinePilot** » Mon 02 May 2005, 21:51:38

"Your naivete on this issue, is none of my concern, but others should be protected from it"

Oh, touche'! Come on no need to be condescending about this stuff threadbear. I submit to you that Pickens is a lot less of a monster than you seem to portray. My father did some consulting work back during the late 60's and early 70's and worked directly for Pickens and got to know him fairly well. After talking with my dad about him I realise that he is a checkered figure and obviously has a colorful past. Even so he is a man of his word. He is intelligent and grasps things others just dont seem to get. These are my dad's observations and I trust his perspective.

Big Oil as you call it, isnt squeezing anything out of anybody, they are making money hand over fist because we are consuming this stuff like crack addicts! The demand is so huge its almost impossible to NOT make a profit. Simple economics really. Tried to buy a Prius or any other hybrid lately? I guess those car companies are raping everyone who wants to get one of those too.

As others who are on this forum have said at some point you need to listen to the folks most people consider experts. Whether you agree with thier principles or not there is always good intel to be had by listening. Your posts here indicate to me your a conspiracy theorist type and while again I don't doubt this could be the biggest hoax perpetrated on mankind, I tend to doubt that due to the mountain of evidence which looms larger and larger all the time. Every time something bad happens it isn't because some government or corporation orchestrated it. I think we as a society today read far too much into many things, so much bogus speculation about everything it's absurd.

I think it's ok to agree to disagree about Pickens. I hear what he is saying, yeah it may be a huge manipulation but even then he will influence things to go however he wishes. You and I are not going to change that. I think the guy is actually trying to alert the industry in a way that he can benefit from, but which will also potentially help us in the long run.

What is in it for him if he precipitates a worldwide depression with his machinations? A guy like that just doesn't do this kind of stuff unless it's in some fictional novel. It's more likely he is trying to rattle our cages to wake up from the slumber. Thats my dads take on it anyway.

by **threadbear** » Mon 02 May 2005, 22:46:19

Ebyss wrote:His motivation for talking about Peak oil is irrelevant. He will either be right or wrong. The question is where is he putting his own money? If he doesn't follow his own advice, no-one else will. It would appear, if he is so rich, that he has been right many times.

I don't doubt he's onto something when it comes to peak oil. However, he along with other men of influence will affect the price of oil, just by encouraging others to think in the very worst case scenarios. His prescriptions aren't to encourage the general public to cut back on consumption, but to invest in stocks like Suncor.

"As others who are on this forum have said at some point you need to listen to the folks most people consider experts. Whether you agree with thier principles or not there is always good intel to be had by listening. Your posts here indicate to me your a conspiracy theorist type and while again I don't doubt this could be the biggest hoax perpetrated on mankind, I tend to doubt that due to the mountain of evidence which looms larger and larger all the time. Every time something bad happens it isn't because some government or corporation orchestrated it. I think we as a society today read far too much into many things, so much bogus speculation about everything it's absurd." Airline Pilot.

Talk about condescending. I will repeat that I think the oil companies are squeezing people, most people aren't invested in them, and if you think they don't conspire that will ultimately be your problem, not mine. You have repeated several times words to the effect that I don't believe in peak oil. As a matter of fact, I do. It's a geological conspiracy of amazing proportions.

And Pilot, because you make good money flying a plane, doesn't mean you're on the inside track of the power elite, so give it a break. If you don't think corporations conspire you're entitled to your thinking, but let's stick to the facts and avoid religious ideation.

by **AirlinePilot** » Mon 02 May 2005, 23:32:51

threadbear wrote:
Talk about condescending. I will repeat that I think the oil companies are squeezing people, most people aren't invested in them, and if you think they don't conspire that will ultimately be your problem, not mine. You have repeated several times words to the effect that I don't believe in peak oil. As a matter of fact, I do. It's a geological conspiracy of amazing proportions.

And Pilot, because you make good money flying a plane, doesn't mean you're on the inside track of the power elite, so give it a break. If you don't think corporations conspire you're entitled to your thinking, but let's stick to the facts and avoid religious ideation.

Ok I think you took that one totally out of context, No condescension was meant. I was just trying to amplify the fact that listening to both sides of the argument, no matter what it is can be enlightening. I apologise if you took it that way. I'm not sure I remember labeling you as not believing in Peak Oil, sorry if I did or implied it. I think we just see things a bit differently when it comes to things like Pickens, Big Oil, and whether or not it's a conspiracy. Sticking to the facts and leaving out the "ideation" is a fine idea.

I don't know where you are getting the feeling I think I'm part of some "power elite" . I am labor plain and simple, well compensated labor, but I dont have ANY delusions about being elite. I had some unique insight due to my dads past dealings with Mr Pickens, just thought I would share. I value my fathers advice and his take on things. He is a smart guy I can learn a lot from. There are always two sides to a story.

by **threadbear** » Mon 02 May 2005, 23:56:40

AP, Pickens makes fine pickins, for people like me. I have a kind of gag reflex when it comes to the word "billionaire". I don't think anyone becomes a billionaire without being a slimeball, at least on some level. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe I'll meet a billionaire who will surprise me one day.
I am kind of condescending sometimes. Imagine that--a highschool dropout communicating with the highly educated and putting them in their place. Talk about ego. Whooo boy. :lol:

THE T. Boone Pickens Thread (merged)

Boone Pickens on CNBC closing bell

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