THE T. Boone Pickens Thread (merged)

[whereagles]

$5 a gallon is nothing. In Europe we're paying ~$6 and most middle-class families could easily pay two or three times as much. Even four times, if they really wanted to stick to the car.

I estimate that only at $15 a gallon would the lower classes be unable afford a car anymore, and at $30 the middle-class.

[frankthetank]

$5 gas in the US would probably lead to riots in certain places.

[emersonbiggins]

$5 a gallon is nothing. In Europe we're paying ~$6 and most middle-class families could easily pay two or three times as much. Even four times, if they really wanted to stick to the car.

I estimate that only at $15 a gallon would the lower classes be unable afford a car anymore, and at $30 the middle-class.

Apples and oranges. What's your VMT there in Portugal, like 6 000 km/year? Americans drive 3-5 times that much in vehicles that are half as efficient as yours, mostly because they 'have to'.

[TorrKing]

In Norway we pay about $7,20 a gallon these days. After Katrina we payed about $10 a gallon.

Torjus Gaaren

[Zardoz]

Five bucks will hardly have any effect.

We're addicted to bloated, oversized, gas-swilling vehicles. God knows what it'll take to get people out of their Suburbans. Most will have to be dragged out bodily, no matter what the price. We'll chain ourselves into our Escalades. We'll tape our hands to the wheels of our Navigators like suicide bombers.

Kunstler really is right about us, sad to say.

[gego]

When the AARP gets wind of the NY Times proposal it will be dead. Seniors don't pay payroll tax, but they do drive. This would be a tax on this powerful voting block. Can you see thousands of little old ladies swinging their umbrellas at the politicians?

[emersonbiggins]

When the AARP gets wind of the NY Times proposal it will be dead. Seniors don't pay payroll tax, but they do drive. This would be a tax on this powerful voting block. Can you see thousands of little old ladies swinging their umbrellas at the politicians?

Never fear, when the social security fund runs out, these little old ladies will be too busy panhandling for food and too poor to pay their AARP dues. I doubt AARP would continue lobbying on behalf of seniors out of altruistic intent.

[Leanan]

I wasn't sure from the article what Pickens meant when he called for a rise to $5/gallon. Worldwide, it certainly would cut consumption. In many Third World nations, that would eliminate gasoline use. (Ironically, many oil-producing countries like Iraq and Nigeria might find themselves priced out of the market.)

If he meant $5/gallon in the U.S., via increased gas taxes, refunded through a drop in a payroll tax...that would cut consumption, though perhaps not as much as he hopes.

Even $3/gallon made a difference. Public transportation use went up 7%, and even in Texas, people didn't want SUVs any more.

[whereagles]

$5 a gallon is nothing. In Europe we're paying ~$6 and most middle-class families could easily pay two or three times as much. Even four times, if they really wanted to stick to the car.

I estimate that only at $15 a gallon would the lower classes be unable afford a car anymore, and at $30 the middle-class.

Apples and oranges. What's your VMT there in Portugal, like 6 000 km/year? Americans drive 3-5 times that much in vehicles that are half as efficient as yours, mostly because they 'have to'.

Last time I checked, Europeans spend about twice as much in fuel than americans, as a percentage of their monthly earnings. So, if we could double or triple our monthly spendure without going bankrupt, I'm pretty sure americans could withstand a 5 or 6-fold increase.

Besides, I don't think americans are "endplayed" into long range commutes on inefficient vehicles. As for the efficiency, you can already buy better cars. As for long range commute, I'll give in this is harder to solve, but how about this: instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.

[emersonbiggins]

Last time I checked, Europeans spend about twice as much in fuel than americans, as a percentage of their monthly earnings. So, if we could double or triple our monthly spendure without going bankrupt, I'm pretty sure americans could withstand a 5 or 6-fold increase.

You're missing the point. You have transit options in Europe, 'murkans aren't so lucky. If gas goes 3x higher in Europe, you have a fallback plan - take the train, bus or walk. Americans simply have no choice, because of the way we've been developing urban form in the last 60 years. If gas goes 6x higher in the U.S. (hell, even 2x higher), there will be massive political fallout, the ramifications of which will affect every part of our economy, much of which is predicated on endless suburban growth.

Besides, I don't think americans are "endplayed" into long range commutes on inefficient vehicles. As for the efficiency, you can already buy better cars. As for long range commute, I'll give in this is harder to solve, but how about this: instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.

You're preaching to the choir, my friend. I wish we had spent that 2 billion on TGVs and light rail, but, apparently, it wasn't my decision. Also, I drive a turbodiesel right now, so I can attest to attitude changes, but many Americans are so in debt to the hilt right now that trading in their bulky SUVs for a huge loss to pay a premium on a small, efficient car won't make sense for quite some time. And many families are too poor to envision such a choice.

[Zardoz]

...instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.

Add three more zeroes. The total cost will exceed two trillion. I try not to think about what we could have done with that money instead.

[Daculling]

When the AARP gets wind of the NY Times proposal it will be dead. Seniors don't pay payroll tax, but they do drive. This would be a tax on this powerful voting block. Can you see thousands of little old ladies swinging their umbrellas at the politicians?

Why the hell don't we have an association for the protection of productive people (APPP)?

[gnm]

Last time I checked, Europeans spend about twice as much in fuel than americans, as a percentage of their monthly earnings. So, if we could double or triple our monthly spendure without going bankrupt, I'm pretty sure americans could withstand a 5 or 6-fold increase.

I doubt it. The other problems that come into play here are the fact that we also have to pay huge premiums for healthcare/insurance, most food/goods are trucked long distances and as fuel prices rose so prices in general would skyrocket (massive inflation). As far as Europe absorbing a tripling of fuel goes I don't know about you but I know several people in Germany for instance who would be impacted pretty hard by a tripling of fuel costs. I don't think theres as much "excess income" as you say.

Besides, I don't think americans are "endplayed" into long range commutes on inefficient vehicles. As for the efficiency, you can already buy better cars. As for long range commute, I'll give in this is harder to solve, but how about this: instead of spending 2 billion invading Iraq, use that money to build/improve mass transit systems.

I agree completely. We have the means and the money (for now) to create a first rate light rail network/misc mass transit. But apparently not the will...

[emersonbiggins]

Why the hell don't we have an association for the protection of productive people (APPP)?

Where shall we both meet?

[whereagles]

You're missing the point. You have transit options in Europe, 'murkans aren't so lucky. If gas goes 3x higher in Europe, you have a fallback plan - take the train, bus or walk. Americans simply have no choice

I understand this. But my points are:

A. People in Europe have mass transit, but many can't be bothered to use it. It would take a massive increase in fuel prices to "persuade" people to drop the car. This is to say that although most americans have no mass transit, they can still take on a 3-fold fuel price rise. The low class I'm not completely sure, but the middle class certainly can. This is another way to say oil prices are still ridiculously low, as we probably all agree.

B. The whole capitalist system can deal with a substantial oil price increase. The barrel price doubled the last years and it's still all "business as usual".

Note: as for the price of the war in Iraq, yeah.. it should be in the trillions. I was also finding my own 2 billion a bit of a "bargain".

[Starvid]

We're addicted to bloated, oversized, gas-swilling vehicles.

We're?

You are!

[emersonbiggins]

A. People in Europe have mass transit, but many can't be bothered to use it. It would take a massive increase in fuel prices to "persuade" people to drop the car. This is to say that although most americans have no mass transit, they can still take on a 3-fold fuel price rise. The low class I'm not completely sure, but the middle class certainly can. This is another way to say oil prices are still ridiculously low, as we probably all agree.

Say that the middle class can absorb another two-fold increase (as it has done in the last year) with gasoline. Where is that added expenditure coming from? Well, if it's America we're talking about, that has become added consumer debt, mainly on credit cards and the like. And that has to be repaid at some point, and has been partially repaid in the past with home refinancing loans. Well if gas is 2-3x greater in cost, those shiny waferboard houses out in the burbs (where the middle class lives) will eventually start to see lower appreciation rates and perhaps even depreciation rates - that obviously means no more cash-out refis for credit card debts on home mortgages. The economic fallout precipitates from there. Economic growth falls tremendously because families are spending more of their relatively flat and finite income (and credit) on energy costs, meaning that TVs, furniture and shiny new cars become unattainable for the masses on a whim. The lower classes working at the restaurants and retail outlets start to see their pink slips and those holding 401Ks start to panic. There's your economy.

B. The whole capitalist system can deal with a substantial oil price increase. The barrel price doubled the last years and it's still all "business as usual".

It's not "business as usual", it's sheer inertia. The full impact of added energy costs won't be felt until Americans stop buying and start repaying debts. You might say that 'will never happen', but all debts must be repaid at some point - and that point is fast approaching.

[Eli]

Whereagles

Point well taken.

5 dollar a gallon in the US would go a long way to spurring the development of mass transit in the US.

If people in the US were forced to give up one car because of the costs, mass transit systems would get a huge boost. So much money is wasted in the US on the 2 car plus family it is ridiculous.

[Barbara]

Huh come on. Here we pay $6 and people drive 20.000 km or more (about 12/15.000 miles per year).

We don't live on trees as you may think. Simply, the most thirsty car here goes at 10 km per liter. And I'm speaking of Mercedes and BMWs, not Fiat. Buy smarter cars and you can afford $10.

[Petrodollar]

Well,
The fuel prices did very briefly double in western europe back in September 2000. This was due to 1) a small dip in oil production, but far more important 2) an artifact of the euro's currency risk when it reached the lowest point relative to the dollar in its history (.82 to $1).

The result was near rioting, here are some pictures: