THE T. Boone Pickens Thread (merged)

[BitterSweetCrude]

did they figure it out?

This made me laugh.
I'm guessing another $0.25 a gallon. What's that, $70 oil?

[lateStarter]

As long as it just keeps creeping up, it won't have a major impact until companies start laying people off. I don't know at what price point that process will begin. Most average americans are already stretched pretty thin, so a large spike could lead to all sorts of interesting household discussions like: "should we pay the mortgage this month or the gas credit cards, and how much can we cutback on food expenses this week"?

[Leanan]

did they figure it out?

Not really. They hyped it, but didn't even discuss it directly.

Pickens definitely sounds like a peak oiler, though.

...we whistled through $50 a barrel pretty fast, and didn't seem to cause any problems. I don't know whether we can whistle through $60 and beyond. I don't know. But I do believe this -- that the fourth quarter this year is maybe going to be the most interesting quarter that I have ever experienced in my 50 years in the oil industry. I think we're coming up on a brick wall very fast. If the projections for 86 million barrels a day demand holds up, I don't see how we can service 86 demands with 84 supplies.

The whole transcript is here:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ ... tm.01.html

[dinopello]

The classic thing about this transcript is that after the interview with Pickens, who basically is saying the world can't supply any more oil (and we all know what the consequences of that are, or at least that it is very not good) they lead into the commercial with this teaser:

And chasing fame. The paparazzi love Paris Hilton, but what does she do to deserve that attention. We'll look at what it takes to make a celebrity these days.

[turmoil]

they lead into the commercial with this teaser

just shows to go ya...

thanks for posting the transcript Leanan!

[NeoPeasant]

T. Boone Pickens is on CNN's In the Money right now. He's predicting $3/gallon gas by the end of the year.

They're trying to figure out how high gas will have to go before "demand destruction" kicks in...

In America, a gallon of gas is $2-something. It will start getting people seriously concerned when it reaches $3-something. Then people will start to think -"Hey wasn't it only a year or two ago that it was $1-something? Some serious shit must be going on. Maybe I ought to pay more attention to my loonie brother in-law who walks to work and has a big vegetable garden and is always ranting about peeking at oil, or something."

[savethehumans]

I think demand is gonna be harder to destroy than any of the pundits claim.

[cammo2004]

I think demand is gonna be harder to destroy than any of the pundits claim.

Depends which economy you're talking about. Some, it'll be easy. The US has overextended itself by a shocking margin - and will topple like a house of cards.

Here in Australia, the economy's a little more robust, and it'll take a while. We've weathered just about everything that can be thrown at us in the last 10 years. We won't 'ride this one out', but it will take a little longer for it to affect us (especially with a tax cut coming to many that the government can actually afford!).

We're also not AS heavily dependant on our roads (we are, but nowhere near the extent of the US). This is primarily due to our generally poor regional roads (SYD-BNE is particularly shocking north of Grafton - Trucks on a two lane road (one each way) is not a good mix...

[I_Like_Plants]

I went on a nice 2-day trip up into "wine country" and spent $30 on gas, and didn't even use all I bought, more like $25 for the gas cost. I paid about $2.50 a gallon for the stuff, and a fair amount of it was town driving, climbing/descending the mountain between Calistoga and Middletown, and general poopin' around. Oh, and gotta run that A/C, it got a bit hot too.

Let's see, my hotel was $70 and even that wasn't so bad, so gas has got to go a lot higher, at least $5 a gallon, double what I paid, to make me think the trip was expensive, and even then $5 gas would not have made me not take the trip. It was fun!

[Leanan]

The problem isn't just gas. The problem is the invisible "fuel tax" attached to just about everything here in the U.S.

Right now, businesses are pretty much eating the extra costs. Some truck drivers are taking their rigs off the road, because they can't afford gas and they can't raise prices in the current market.

But this is all on the assumption that this rise is temporary. No one wants to lose market share over a "temporary" fuel price increase.

Of course, if it's not temporary, or if it gets worse, it'll be a different story. Businesses will have no choice; they'll have to pass on the price increases or go out of business. People will be paying more for electricity, water, groceries, and all the manufactured goods they buy: iPods, shoes, rubber bands, underwear, DVDs, computers, etc. Meanwhile, closing businesses will mean a lot of them will be losing their jobs.

I think the American consumer will keep on buying gas as long as he can afford it...but once the breaking point is reached, the collapse could be sudden and nasty.

[pea-jay]

Don't forget agriculture.

Can't say that enough. Farmers are getting eaten alive by increased fuel costs, and thanks to the Green Revolution we are now dependent on huge fossil fuel subsidies for our food stuffs. Packaging and transportation costs aside, food prices will have to increase. Most farmers operate on thin margins and crop prices are generally low when harvests are good. An uptick in prices will shove lower margin farmers right out of business. That won't immediately translate into higher prices until the number producing any given crop declines to a level to actually affect yields. Then commodity prices will finally increase. Some farmers may come back into production if they can make money, but that will likely only slow the price hikes. Eventually you will have food problems if that continues long enough. I don't think it will. The economy and or energy supply system will sieze up long before a gradual rise does us in.

When it comes to ag, this is what I REALLY worry about:

After a period of increasing energy costs panic in the greater economy ensues either because of a sudden decline in energy supply, a run on financial institutions or a combination of both effectively results in a cutting off of energy delivery to farmers. Not price hikes but an actually shortage. If the government cannot forceable redistribute energy (read diesel, electricity or natural gas) to farmers then what? Crops rot in the field or are never harvested. Or maybe they never make it to market.

THe ag system is one of the most dependent on energy inputs. Disrupt one part of the production chain and you are in a world of hurt. Look at North Korea, Soviet Union, or Cuba. All suffered an agricultural crisis of some sort due to fuel. How they dealt with it depended on the quality of their leadership and available replacements.

We cannot ignore these kind of implications.

[NeoPeasant]

I clicked to see the Boone Pickens Interview on money.cnn.com where he says 84 million barrels a day is it folks and gas will be $3 in a year. But before they show you the interview, they make you watch a Cadillac Escalade Ad!. For some reason I wasn't eager to go out and buy one, even with the "Employee Discount".

[Lore]

T Boone Pickens showed up on Hardball with Chris Matthews tonight in a one-on-one interview. Bottom line for the brief segment was that T Boone is predicting a wild fourth quarter for oil prices. He continues to stress that maximum capacity is 85 mbd while use within the fourth will exceed 87 mbd.

His polk salad down home delivery left no doubt, at least in his mind, that prices would drop anytime, if ever, soon and sees North of $75 USD oil much sooner then later.

He also predicted that the talk of the town in the next three months on shows like this would be the energy crisis we're facing. Not a hard prediction to make especially if the first one comes true.

[MicroHydro]

North of $75 USD oil much sooner then later.

Yes!

[WebHubbleTelescope]

Pickens is quite the Swift-Boat supporter as well. $2,500,000.00 later and it got us Bush as president. link

[The_Toecutter]

Boone Pickens may be right in many regards, especially to peak oil, but one must not forget he's also an oil speculator with a profit agenda. He should not be taken at face value, even though at this current time I do agree with most of what he says about this issue. Despite this, he is the lowest of the low and people like him are responsible for their share of mis-information, price driving, and fear mongering.

This is the guy that also recommends changing our cars to natural gas. Given his investments, one should not be surprised about this. It will worsen the crisis, and the unabated demand will make both fuels increase in price. Ole' Boone ends up pocketing more cash from both oil AND natural gas. Genius.

First, we need to get away from using fossil fuels for our cars, period. They're limited in quantity, reserves are shinking fast, and in my opinion using these important resources to fuel things like automobiles is just plain stupid. Second, natural gas is in short supply to begin with; other alternatives should see more press and hype such as biodiesel, electricity, and maybe celluoistic ethanol, even if none are a complete solution. Third, we need to drastically CUT car use altogether. One car for every 2.5-3 people of driving age and about 5,000-6,000 miles per year average driven per car should be sufficient, so long as we allow mass transit, bikes, and electric rail to pick up the bulk of transportation and keep the cars for occassional utility use(some shopping, erands for when speed is of utmost importance, ect.), trips to nearby rural areas not served by any future mass transit, and mostly, SPORT.

Old Boone... Maybe such speculators and also oil execs should be shot? To some that would seem extreme, but no more extreme than a few oil men hiring mercenaries to kill innocent people so they can take their land and drill on it, lobbying politicians to fight illegal oil wars so they can drill and make money off the conquered land and by selling oil that does not belong to them, siphoning billions of dollars of welfare money from hard working taxpayers through the socialized government, blocking adoption of alternative fuels through negative PR campaigns, lobbying, and falsified studies, attempting to keep demand for their product as high as possible with collaberation of other industries and the government, and then raking in the profits when the shit hits the fan and prices skyrocket, avoiding most of the negative consequences it will entail for the rest of us. Evil, evil, sick fucks.

Their oily hands have permanently tainted this country and everything its founders stood for.

[GrizzAdams]

Boone Pickens was on MSNBC just recently saying that, there is no future for supply, and that demand has to be killed in order for things to remain smooth. He also went on to say that we are in for a "wild ride," in the near future.

I think the message is really starting to hit home, and the message being that, we have seriously backed ourselves into a corner with this overwhelming dependacy on oil.

[seldom_seen]

You're just rubbing it in cause you know you have that big bear to eat.

[GrizzAdams]

lol, yeah, the grizzlies are treating me better than the humans.

[killJOY]

Pickens is quite the Swift-Boat supporter as well. $2,500,000.00 later and it got us Bush as president.

Despite this, he is the lowest of the low and people like him are responsible for their share of mis-information, price driving, and fear mongering.

One thing that make PO so compellling is that people I loathe, as well as those I respect, are making sense. Look who you have in bed together: Simmons, Pickens, Rep. Bartlett; plus Ruppert, Kunstler and Heinberg. Throw in a few geologists--Campbell, Deffeyes, Skrebowski--and you have one hell of a goddamn stew.

This is why I sat up and started paying attention a long time ago. Not to mention that fact that my geology professor, Craig Hatfield, fired an early warning shot in 1997. [url=http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Hatfield_97-4.pdflink[/url]