[Tuike]

The Swift cut off from Iran was top news at evening tv news. The news reporter said Iran could still sell oil even if money was disabled by accepting gold bars as payment.

[Tanada]

Something people are discounting is how Russia will react if they feel Saudi Arabia is pushing them to the wall with low oil prices ruining the Russian economy. Economic warfare can become shooting war with a few orders given. When KSA did this in 1986 it was with the full backing and support of the US Military. The USA today is a shadow of what it was in 1986 and even worse those in service are exhausted from seemingly endless war in Iraq and Afghanistan for the last 11 years and counting.

It could be as simple as dumping a few dozen mines in the Persian Gulf, or as harsh as sending 100 cruise missiles to destroy the Saudi Arabian export terminals. Breaking things is much easier than building or repairing them. Don't back the bear in the cornered, even a cornered rabbit will fight if it thinks it has nothing to lose.

[Timo]

Interesting scenario, Tanada. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but i highly suspect that the US would lift sanctions and become BFFs with Iran in order to secure the free flow of traffic through Hormuz. Any attempts by Russia to disrupt the SoH would be a huge act of hostility toward both Iran and the US. We'd probably use the Iranian Navy to more actively patrol the Straight in order to keep the Russians completely out, rather than let them sow a few mines in the waters to disrupt the flow of crude.

Call me crazy, but you'd be correct.

[Subjectivist]

Great, something new to worry about. I don't think Russia would actually have to attack anything, just rattle the saber and hint that they could. Panic the speculators a little and prices will go back up.