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The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 13:51:17

Certainly, money and connections are not lacking for SA
Saudi Arabia to acquire nuclear weapons to counter Iran
SAUDI Arabia could acquire nuclear warheads within weeks of Iran developing atomic weapons as the threat from Tehran triggers an arms race across the Middle East.

In the event of a successful Iranian nuclear test, Riyadh would immediately launch a twin-track nuclear weapons program.

Warheads would be purchased off the shelf from abroad, with work on a new ballistic missile platform getting under way to build an immediate deterrent, according to Saudi sources.

At the same time, the Saudi kingdom would upgrade its planned civil nuclear program to include a military dimension, beginning uranium enrichment to develop weapons-grade material in the long term.

Saudi officials emphasise that Riyadh has no military nuclear program at present and will continue to lobby for nuclear disarmament across the region.

But the Saudi government accepts privately that there is no chance of Israel surrendering its undeclared arsenal of warheads, and Riyadh is determined to match Tehran if its arch enemy in the Gulf goes nuclear.

Like many Western powers, Riyadh is convinced that Iran is seeking to build nuclear weapons, and is preparing for a worst-case scenario should Western efforts to halt Iran's nuclear advance fail.

The Times has learnt that commanders of Saudi Arabia's Strategic Missile Force have been actively considering the missile platforms on the market.

"There is no intention currently to pursue a unilateral military nuclear program but the dynamics will change immediately if the Iranians develop their own nuclear capability," one senior Saudi source said.

"Politically, it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom."

Pakistan is the most likely vendor of warheads to Riyadh, according to Western officials
.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/saudi-arabia-to-acquire-nuclear-weapons-to-counter-iran/story-fnb64oi6-1226268171576
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 13:57:17

Wouldn't it be really ironic if the "end of the world battle" really does happen in the middle east, after all those decades of ragging on evangelical rapture types and their plans for Armaggedon?
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 14:10:53

India is sending a huge trade delegation to Iran.

India ignores US sanctions on Iran, is sending huge trade delegation to Iran to increase trade

If the US and EU are really going to stop trading with Iran, then India will be more than glad to step in and take over the business of supplying Iran with food, construction eqipment, oil field equipment and other goods in exchange for Iran's oil.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby Revi » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 15:25:51

India wants to trade gold for oil. They want to subvert the petrodollar system. That's why we need to take the Iranians out.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 20:19:12

PM defies U.S. diktat on oil import from Iran
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Friday stressed that diplomacy should be given maximum scope in resolving the Iran nuclear issue and made it clear that India will continue to import oil from there despite fresh sanctions by the U.S. and European Union (EU).

Both the U.S. and the EU have been pressuring India to use its good offices to bring Tehran to the negotiating table.

Threats of strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities have been looming large with the U.S. and Israel talking about 'the timing' of the strikes.

The issue was discussed prominently at the 12th India-European Union Summit here on Friday.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2099584/PM-defies-U-S-diktat-oil-import-Iran.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 20:27:25

rangerone314 wrote:Saudi Arabia has serious nuclear-capable missiles http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/saudi.htm

To add to this, it is also reported that Saudi Arabia may have a deal to purchase warheads from Pakistan, thus being able to be nuclear armed within weeks of Iran developing a nuke.

There´s a fundamental difference rangerone314 the people from SA is really, really nice people, unlike those Iranians folks.:lol:
SA is a benign, illustrated and visionary regime that just want world peace and the betterment of humanity. Iran on the other hand, plots the destruction of Israel and all civilized world :shock:

Saudi Arabia going nuclear - why no uproar?
Saudi Arabia recently announced its intention to launch its own nuclear program, saying it needs to diversify its energy sources. But a Saudi prince raised the possibility that the kingdom might develop nuclear weapons if Iran joins Israel as a nuclear weapons possessor.

Why no international uproar?

While Iranian officials, whether sincerely or not, insist that their nuclear program is solely for peaceful energy purposes, Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal openly linked his country's nuclear energy and nuclear weapons interests.

If both Israel and Iran have nuclear weapons, "it is our duty toward our nation and people to consider all possible options, including the possession of these weapons," Prince Turki, a former Saudi intelligence chief and U.S. ambassador, told a Persian Gulf security conference in Riyadh in December.

That same month, Saudi Minister of Commerce and Industry Abdullah Zainal told a U.S.-Saudi business conference in Atlanta that his country will spend $100 billion on building 16 nuclear power plants over the next few years to generate electricity.

http://peoplesworld.org/saudi-arabia-going-nuclear-why-no-uproar/
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 21:05:24

Could be the grand plan is to end up letting the Shia and Sunni at each other with the big stuff? The resulting population reduction would alleviate apparent and immediate ELM pressures throughout the region. The resulting spike in oil prices and availability would force a new base price well up from where we are now/ with US/ Canadian oil barely profitable. Beggaring regimes, if there were any such thing post nuclear war.

Another aspect is the triumph of Christianity over Islam were Sunni and Shia to destroy most of each other. An Islamic civil war could keep these folks busy for a few centuries more once western powers give up trying to police the region.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Feb 2012, 22:49:04

eXpat wrote:Saudi Arabia may have a deal to purchase warheads from Pakistan, thus being able to be nuclear armed within weeks of Iran developing a nuke.....why no ..... uproar?


Obama is busy campaigning right now.

He should have time to get back to work on stuff like this in about 11 months, assuming he doesn't have any golf matches, basketball games or vacation time set up for that time. :roll:
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 05:58:25

.
It's a a non issue , the whole point about the Iranian getting nuke is not Israel
bugger them ,they just provide the dialectic for indignation
the point is that Iran could then seriously cut the straits ,
as opposed to disturbing the shipping schedule for two weeks
....it would have its foot on the west throat

Saudis are no problem since they want to keep it open
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 07:29:19

Closing the Straights would pretty much end the Iranian's dream of a nuclear bomb overnight. Even the Chinese would support a military intervention to reopen the Straight. Bombing their nuclear facilities would be simply part of an overall campaign to restore oil flow.

I do not believe the Iranians will close the Straights unless they are attacked in a military way by the West or Israel. Now perhaps that is what is being planned but it carries high risk.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 12:59:04

Revi wrote:India wants to trade gold for oil. They want to subvert the petrodollar system. That's why we need to take the Iranians out.


Why not India too? <sarcasm off>
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby rangerone314 » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 13:15:11

careinke wrote:
Revi wrote:India wants to trade gold for oil. They want to subvert the petrodollar system. That's why we need to take the Iranians out.


Why not India too? <sarcasm off>

Because the American 1% need somewhere to ship the jobs of the 99% to.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby Sys1 » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 13:58:47

As soon as a war involving Iran or worse, Saudi Arabia, occurs, everything will fall apart fast.
It could eventually end in a global thermonuclear war in case Israel is hit by Iran.
This hypothesis looks to me crazy in terms of consequences, but perfectly plausible by looking at the current situation.

Even if we manage to avoid any nuclear exchange between China, USA, Europe and Russia, the price of oil will skyrocket to the point that martial law will be enforced on the whole planet in order to control rioting.
Iran produces a lot of oil and is located in a nevralgic point at a time where spare capacities are exhausted and capitalism is dying under the weight of an exponential debt. A little pitch and the house collapses.

Even 2008 looks to me the good old time.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby rangerone314 » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 17:06:53

Sys1 wrote:As soon as a war involving Iran or worse, Saudi Arabia, occurs, everything will fall apart fast.
It could eventually end in a global thermonuclear war in case Israel is hit by Iran.
This hypothesis looks to me crazy in terms of consequences, but perfectly plausible by looking at the current situation.

Even if we manage to avoid any nuclear exchange between China, USA, Europe and Russia, the price of oil will skyrocket to the point that martial law will be enforced on the whole planet in order to control rioting.
Iran produces a lot of oil and is located in a nevralgic point at a time where spare capacities are exhausted and capitalism is dying under the weight of an exponential debt. A little pitch and the house collapses.

Even 2008 looks to me the good old time.

Relax, the CIA will take care of it, because its a party at the CIA:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-CG5w4YwOI
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 20:29:36

.
I'm not sure what is going on ,
a quick scan show Israel talking tough but sitting on its hands
a Strike on Iran is really difficult to achieve because of the distance

The U.S. seems to have a policy of slow , progressive strangulation
never providing a spark while providing the kindling
letting the Iranian come out as the bad arsed which would start the shooting
Iran doesn't want to fall for that ,they know the score , know of all the U.s. military assets
and all the missiles sitting across the gulf in the oil sheikdoms
but the pressure is unrelenting , Teheran seems divided on a response
there has been plenty of friction between the hard and the soft line
Ahmadinedjad is the dove while Kameini the supreme mullah seems to be pretty harsh
still the weapons get piled up , it's becoming highly unstable
Obama doesn't seems to want any shooting before the elections
But It could come down to a stuff up , war by inevitable accident
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby jbrovont » Sat 11 Feb 2012, 20:33:52

What incentive is there for Iran to mess with the flow of oil to Russia or China? They're effectively protecting Iran, and its allies. No incentive, no action. Figure out who's got an incentive to do what, and you'll probably have a good idea of what the players will likely attempt.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Sun 12 Feb 2012, 04:44:13

.
so far , the only thing which seems to make sense is that because of the sanctions
Iran has great difficulties importing food , the payment system is in a spin
result empty shops just before the Iranian elections
people might not care much about some theoretical western democratic ideal
but imagine hundred of thousands mother in laws on the rampage because the cupboard is bare
we are talking weapons of political mass destruction .
I'm not joking , shortage and starvation have started a few regime changes recently

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... Q420120208
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/I ... story.html
.......food wars , the future
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 12 Feb 2012, 09:13:22

I think indeed that USA don't have any interest in a confrontation with Iran. The situation is so instable that any moveYte
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby rangerone314 » Sun 12 Feb 2012, 13:18:49

Maybe the US doesn't but Obama might want to wag the dog.
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Re: The Strait of Hormuz Thread (merged)

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 16 Feb 2012, 09:34:51

And while oil is cut to France and Netherlands...
National Iranian Oil Co., China Reach Agreement On 2012 Crude Supply
BEIJING (Dow Jones)--National Iranian Oil Co. has reached an agreement in principle with China International United Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Unipec, for a long-term supply contract to supply crude oil in 2012, a person familiar with Iran's oil sales said Thursday.

The deal paves the way for the resumption of imports by China's largest buyer of Iranian crude, which had already skipped orders in January and February due to deadlock over a new contract.

Unipec's latest agreement with NIOC indicates that a decline in Iranian crude exports to China earlier this year was due to a commercial dispute rather than political reasons. The deal is another sign that China has no immediate plans to obey U.S. sanctions, which were tightened late last year to increase pressure on Iran over its nuclear activities.

The European Union already has agreed to completely ban imports of Iranian crude from July, but Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are still deciding whether to cut their orders. India has said it will continue to import crude from Iran as it abides by U.N. sanctions only and not sanctions by any country or bloc.

Although terms of the new contract between NIOC and Unipec are unclear, last year's contract was for 220,000 barrels a day of crude and 60,000 barrels a day of condensate, a light crude that can be used to make premium fuels such as kerosene and naphtha, from Iran's South Pars field.

The volumes represented about half of Iran's crude exports to China in 2011, which totaled about 560,000 barrels a day.

Sinopec Corp., the parent company of Unipec, couldn't be immediately reached for comment.

Iran's state-run Mehr news agency reported Wednesday that the country's deputy oil minister, along with an Iranian delegation, traveled to Beijing earlier this week to negotiate a new crude supply contract and other joint projects in oil, gas and petrochemicals.

Although crude sales to China fell by as much as 250,000 barrels a day earlier this year, shipments will likely rise back to above 500,000 barrels a day in the next few weeks, Mehr reported.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120216-706690.html
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