1st off, I, like the Pope, believe WW-III has already been engaged, the parties are all blooded, and we're not doing a good job of stepping back from the table. I have some hope that nukes won't be used, but not because of fear, but simply because they are unnecessary. Our food / energy system is built to cut every possible cost, and is as efficient, and consequently fragile as it is possible for it to be. Without using a single nuke, or ballistic missile, Putin can destroy every large dam and nuclear power station in Europe, at will. Can destroy much of what makes it possible to move millions of tons of grain around the world, and the pipeline hubs that enable transport. Putin said it himself, nukes are really no longer necessary for strategic warfare. When cruise missiles hit their targets within a meter or few, 90% of the time, the nuke looses its value other than as a tool to suggest other nuclear states should likewise not use them.
They do still have some real value as tactical weapons against large formations, but I think its a tad overstated.
Sixstrings wrote:A Russian media site (sputnik) seems to say that NATO's told Turkey it won't get involved:
The way NATO is supposed to work, is that if NATO-A attacks Bob, and Bob fights back; there is no issue of "support"; its entirely NATO-A's problem to handle as they wish. Even, really, if Bob fires into NATO-A in the process of fighting back.
Also, again, if NATO-A is occupying Bob and Bob's friends attack inside Bobland, well, too bad, so sad, NATO-A can either win, or withdraw. Again, NATO-A has no grounds to require the rest of NATO to do anything. (Not that we can't make a good profit selling NATO-A more NATO compatible munitions of course.)
Now, if out of the blue, Bob INVADES NATO-A or stages a substantial attack not in the course of regular self defense; the Art-5 can come into play; but even then, NATO-A doesn't get to order the rest of the NATO countries around. Brussels provides that top-of-the-food chain thing, regardless.
Now, Russia's being annoying right now, they are flying their best stuff, with their best pilots right up to the Turkish border, and meticulously recording the radar and other telemetry, and listening to EVERYTHING we are emitting in the area. So far the Turks have behaved, and are playing within NATO appropriate rules. They're funding and supplying their jihadis as best they can; intervening with a bit (near insignificant is my read) of artillery into Syria, but otherwise aren't taking the bait and shooting at the skilled Russian who knows exactly where the border is, and will NOT make a mistake. (unlike the Su24 dude early, flying by eyeball and taped on consumer gps unit; I've named him "Chum", because he called the fish, just like Putin wanted him too.)
Really, a LOT of this whole mess from Russia feels like "chum". Seriously think about it. Does anything BAD happen to Russia even if NATO expends the (definitely massive) resources needed to kill Latakia? Not really. They get some dead heroes, an obvious propaganda story internally of NATO as the ultimate aggressor overthrowing regimes wherever and whenever it wishes, a good advertising demo of their hardware, because they WILL kill a lot of NATO jets and ships in the exchange; and no territorial damage in Russia. What they are after is to get an F22 or if they hang around long enough, and be annoying enough, maybe some F35s will become available, and someone in the US will be dumb enough to use them there; they want those jets to fly with active systems on, in front of that S400 and SIGINT jet's receivers + real truth Mark-I eyeball on the ground, for careful recording and relay via satellite back to Moscow. Getting that data would be worth the entire expense of Syria, and all the hardware they moved there. All by itself.
If you accept that "Putin is evil"; then you *must* accept that he is willing to sacrifice a few hundred or a thousand or so troops and some hardware to get something of unimaginable value. How much do you think China would pay for a copy of that data? If I were PRC chief, I'd fork over $100bn USD for it without even blinking, and slip Putin a few billion in a numbered account in Shanghai just for a gratuity. Its THAT kind of valuable.
Would be nice if there was some in depth news coverage to get an idea of the US position.
It's hard to believe Russia could be doing these things, without some kind of understanding with the WH / Pentagon.
The US consented to allow Russia to control the Syrian war the moment we(our jihadis) didn't destroy the Panstir's (and that other close in air defense whose name fled my aging brain cells). Once those were set up; they could bring in the S400 and set it up, along with the anti-ship missiles on that aging cruiser in a way that would take hundreds of blns of dollars in lives, ships, and planes to take out. And of course, now they are driving those corvette's around the med, basically saying we can blow up a dozen or so buildings, any dozen or so buildings, in Europe/MidEast, any time we want, for any reason we want and no one will be able to do beans to stop it.
We let them build a fully layered air defense system. That has consequences. And implies consent.
