I think so Ibon. I've said that it will be a chainsaw that uses the last drop of oil, lol. But then I've always been more optimistic than most that hang here. I believe that instead of going tits up, we will adjust. We'll pay more and work harder, but we wouldn't have gotten to this point if we were quitters.
Most of the oil we use does nothing more than heat the air, both literally and figuratively. Only a passing fraction has
ever done profitable work. We've had so much oil we didn't
need to be frugal, we just got a bigger truck.
It surprises me that there is not more discussion of conservation here, mostly either "We're Dead!" or "We're Saved!" I think most folks, whether they admit it or not, feel the same way as Cheney,
our way of life is non-negotiable. Lots think/hope their neighbors are sheep awaiting slaughter when the negotiations fail.
Because the early oil was so easy we got the idea it really wasn't worth much and proceeded to waste it at every turn. The biggest addition to our energy reserves is a long time was increasing the CAFE standard along with the rest of the Energy Independence bill in '07 and Obama's acceleration of it in '12 or so. Put simply, those 2 actions increase the effective eROI of oil at the wheels significantly. Call it mROEI (Miles return on energy invested).
The energy derivedfrom finding new oil back when it seeped out of the ground was many hundreds of times the energy cost. Today the eROI (not to mention the economicERI) of
discovering new oil - greater capacity - the
marginal barrel, is down in the single digits. As is the cost of producing LTO and x-heavy/tar mining.
But excluding the search for new oil, eROI of existing, producing wells and identified locations is much higher. The resource is already identified, infrastructure is already in place. A new infill well isn't a slam dunk but it is certainly less risky than exploring the arctic I'd imagine. Which is why I have always discounted the argument that eROI means the oil biz will collapse in a heap next week. There is 100mbd of oil flowing right now th is not likely to stop overnight.
In the early days here the specter was of overnight collapse. But the reality, to this point at least, has been increasing cost and increasing conservation. If another drop of oil was never found, there are many hundreds of billions of barrels yet to be developed and extracted and more than likely billions more of reserve growth. The problem of course it they just aren't as easy as the first trillion.
But Marion already said that, lol.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)