DantesPeak wrote:The ones who have been complaining the most about speculators and bubbles have been the same people who have been wrong and PO and oil prices.
Lynch, Peter Beutel, and many others leading the bubble charge never thought prices would rise this high and can't see PO if it jumped up and bit them in the nose.
The commodity bubble is not just about oil. It's about all commodities: base metals (copper, nickel, zinc, lead, tin), precious metals, oil and other energy resources, and agricultural products.
I agree with Veneroso that oil is the commodity whose price is most justified by fundamentals. However, there are a few reasons why your points aren't that convincing:
1. The fact that prices remain high does not prove that oil is not in a speculative bubble. The dotcom bubble surged upward for quite some time after numerous people recognized it as a bubble. Lynch may be right, just off in terms of timing.
2. It's not just Lynch. Boone Pickens was recently shorting oil. He's a peak oil stalwart, and still thinks it's a bubble.
3. There's a big disconnect between concerns about the coming economic collapse in the U.S. (consumer of 25% of the world's oil) and crude prices simultaneously rising by 20% in the last month, and 10% in the last week.