Arthur75 wrote:economists such as Jeff Rubin do by the way
Jeff Rubin was the architect of "peak oil caused the credit crisis" meme. That doesn't mean it holds water.
Arthur75 wrote:discussing whether a speculative real estate bubble popped because of PO or not doesn't matter that much in the end.
I think the more 2008 recedes into the distance and the more peak oil begins to express itself more clearly, that's true. The worst is yet to come.
Arthur75 wrote:Also agree with pstarr on speculation having very little influence on oil price.
(or that the only ones that truly can speculate are OPEC)
Speculation and bubbles truly works for assets, not for hardly storable commodities
That's not really a very detailed response to the articles and things which have been shared that actually go into some detail on how oil speculators game a system that people think can't be gamed. Even if their influence is overstated by those who don't want to accept peak oil, that influence IS a factor nonetheless, and you only have to point to the tanking oil prices in the fall of 2008 to see how this works in both directions. That backwardation was not just demand destruction. It was the popping of the oil speculation bubble. Oil prices are therefore more of a sin wave obscuring what is a more modestly increasing oil price.
To continually get suckered into "this is the big one!" mentality on the crest of every peak of the sin wave is Boy Who Cried Wolf at its worst.