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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 11:51:47

EnergyUnlimited wrote:So you have really 2 choices:

1. Return to pre-Lincoln time.
2. Repetition of Third Reich




Or any number of other choices.

Wow, kinda stuck in a false dilemma there, EU. 8O
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 12:00:13

Ludi wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:So you have really 2 choices:

1. Return to pre-Lincoln time.
2. Repetition of Third Reich




Or any number of other choices.

Wow, kinda stuck in a false dilemma there, EU. 8O

Yep, they will all do gardening.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 12:03:45

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Yep, they will all do gardening.



They might. Seems easier than slavery or death camps.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 12:29:18

Ludi wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Yep, they will all do gardening.



They might. Seems easier than slavery or death camps.

Not really.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prison_farm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_ ... nitentiary

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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 13:35:12

In a real post-apocalyptic doomer scenario everything becomes precarious including precious metals. Why even bother to predict what would happen under such circumstances? I'd rather be dead then be on the run from the zombie hordes until they finally chase me down made a meal of me. 8O
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 13:46:44

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Not really.



You really believe people would rather go into slavery or death camps than garden? Really? You would really rather go into slavery or a death camp than garden? Really? 8O
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 14:27:40

Ludi wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Not really.

You really believe people would rather go into slavery or death camps than garden? Really? You would really rather go into slavery or a death camp than garden? Really? 8O

We are discussing about what solutions are likely to be available to consider once economy comes to crunch, not what I would like to do and what I wouldn't.

Zombie problem was discussed on this forum many times.
It seems to be intractable by civilized means.
There will be just too many of them.
Say 50 millions in US if things go really badly.
Further 20 millions can come from Latin America and Mexico if border control fails.
And no, you won't make sustainable gardeners out of them.
Completely unworkable.

Sharing with zombies is a nonsense. You will be stripped of all assets until no single chicken and cucumber is left on your perma-farm.
Then you will become to be a zombie yourself.

Like I have said, once you have a major zombie outbreak, your (or rather TPTB's) options will be very few:

1. Do nothing and allow zombification to proceed.
Look on Haiti to get a hint of possible outcome.

2. Enslave.

3. Exterminate.

4. Expel (but you may lack resources to do that and they may come back).
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 14:53:52

Well, gold has set a new high so what better place to post this than my "gold is useless" thread:

Gold settles at fresh record high, tops $1,350

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold on Monday rose above $1,350 an ounce, overcoming a wobbly start to post its 15th record in a little over a month. Gold for December delivery advanced $9.10, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,354.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver soared to a fresh 30-year high and copper posted its best settlement since July 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-settles-at-fresh-record-high-tops-1350-2010-10-11


I think what the Automatic Earth's point on this is that gold is just one of the the last refuges of fleeing capital. So it's a transitional medium; what TAE talks about is pretty much the end of the world as we know it, when there is no structure anymore to give meaning to concepts like gold investing, real estate investing, pork belly futures, securitized financial products, etc.

We're a long way from here to Mad Max of course, and personally I don't see that ever happening. So in reality gold and silver are good places to be in that middle ground of chaos, where things get pretty bleak but don't totally collapse.

Unless somebody just takes your gold from you, that would be a bummer.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Pops » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 15:56:08

I think what everyone forgets is that in the event the world as you've imagined it ceases to exist, a new one will begin soon thereafter. I'm guessing getting your wealth over the gap is where gold is good.

But the gap where just in time isn't in time, well, that's where things get tough and where I'm not sure gold will be the best preparation - especially if its your only preparation.

Like TAE says, you'll be trading gold for little Holstein calves with nothing on their bones but hair...

I'm no one to listen too since I didn't buy any gold in the first place but if it were me and I had no supplies to get met across the "gap" I'd sell some of my bullion and invest in something useful. Of course if you are thinking you might not get the TOP price by selling today, I'm gonna say you've learned nothing in the last few years.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 16:08:24

Pops wrote:I'm no one to listen too since I didn't buy any gold in the first place but if it were me and I had no supplies to get met across the "gap" I'd sell some of my bullion and invest in something useful. Of course if you are thinking you might not get the TOP price by selling today, I'm gonna say you've learned nothing in the last few years.


I think what TAE is getting at is that we're not fully grasping what societal collapse means. There won't be the stability required for buying and selling farms; people won't have access to credit or an organized medium of currency to facilitate much trade. Banks would be as obsolete as an iPad; if someone wanted a farm they'd be more likely to squat on an abandoned one, or take one by force, than to buy one with gold and silver.

Even if valuable, gold and silver will still be too rare to be a common currency. There aren't enough bits of gold in the US to replace all our paper money.

Or lets say you do buy a farm with gold coins -- would there be any government around to recognize and protect your legal right of ownership? And without banks, would folks just keep their gold and silver in the house? Eventually a group bigger than your own will come by and take all your stuff; gold, silver, food, preps, and even the scrawny cow -- in fact, the more you have the more likely you won't have it for long.

Again, I'm not saying Mad Max is likely, I just think that's pretty much what TAE foresees. I agree with you that without total collapse, then gold sure beats worthless hyperinflated currency. I guess if someone preps for doom, the middle ground is really what they're prepping for since all bets are off in a total collapse.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 16:13:06

Sixstrings wrote: Eventually a group bigger than your own will come by and take all your stuff; gold, silver, food, preps, and even the scrawny cow -- in fact, the more you have the more likely you won't have it for long.



I guess I wonder how they know you even have stuff they want? Or are you assuming roving bands of Zombies?
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 17:06:11

Ludi wrote:I guess I wonder how they know you even have stuff they want? Or are you assuming roving bands of Zombies?


I don't know, maybe when you pull out your bag of cold coins to buy something? ;)

I get your point though Ludi; the "what-if" game is circular and never ending, doom or not.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 17:19:49

Well, "what if" is fun and probably mostly harmless except I sometimes worry about people getting caught up in paranoid fantasies. 8O

But usually I think of a lot of Peakoil.com "what if" as a version of "Premise Beach" :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itbUSS-gZPc
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Pops » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 17:24:26

Sixstrings wrote:I think what TAE is getting at is that we're not fully grasping what societal collapse means. There won't be the stability required for buying and selling farms; people won't have access to credit or an organized medium of currency to facilitate much trade.

I meant if I had a sack of gold today, 10/11/2010, and all I had in the cupboard was a half empty box of cat liter, I'd take an ounce or two of gold to the gold store and sell some so I could stock up on some pinto beans or even better - a way to grow them, to get me through until things settle down and the next phase emerges. I'd sure not want to be out there clawing for the last bag when the momma bears come out!

And the next phase will emerge, I don't care HOW many trillions of dollars in imaginary bets some computer somewhere has with some other computer some otherwhere. The next day, that bag of beans will be worth something, just as will my labor and your skills and someone else's tools - it doesn't matter if every dollar turned into dust this instant, those things have intrinsic value, dollars (and gold) are just chips from past winning hands.

Ilargi wrote:It's called debt deflation, people, and once you’re in debt way over your head as a society or as an individual there's nothing you can do but to lay low and let it run its course.


But I'm like you six, I don't see myself in firefights with suburban housewives on the tramp anytime soon - I do have some beans though...
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Kristen » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 15:43:18

First of all, death camps and slavery are not an option. I doubt anyone with a shred of morality would support such an atrocity. Instead of getting all turned on by massive slayings you should realize that these people being killed would be your friends and loved ones.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 16:14:17

Kristen wrote:First of all, death camps and slavery are not an option. I doubt anyone with a shred of morality would support such an atrocity.

However those who are ruling you have no morality, so they won't have much problem with ordering that.
They will try to do whatever works.
They didn't have enough morality not to raze city of Fallujah (in Iraq) to the ground, they had not enough morality to prevent them running Vietnam war, so don't be mistaken here.
Morality is in short supply these days.
Instead of getting all turned on by massive slayings you should realize that these people being killed would be your friends and loved ones.

Nope.

These peoples will be *they*.

Say helpless wanderers who erupted out of ailing cities to seek food etc.

As individuals they will be usually strangers to you.
You will not know them or alternatively you will not know those whom you are trying to loot, if you are in "zombie" group.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Puddnhead » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 16:33:29

Over 60% of Americans are homeowners. Isn't it unlikely that property will simply disappear as a category that has some force, even if there is a rapid decline? Spend your gold on land, and get to know your neighbors. Just because our world-system is going town the toilet doesn't necessarily mean that every form of social value and every form of community will go with it.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Pops » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 16:37:46

I agree with you puddin, but I'll bet you a doughnut that no one here with gold has any intention of selling - the price is still rising donchno!
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 17:20:57

Kristen wrote:First of all, death camps and slavery are not an option. I doubt anyone with a shred of morality would support such an atrocity. Instead of getting all turned on by massive slayings you should realize that these people being killed would be your friends and loved ones.



Don't pay any attention to EU, he doesn't even live in America, though he likes to comment on American issues for some reason. A lot. A whole lot.
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Re: Automatic Earth: all your gold and silver will be usele

Unread postby green_achers » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 20:41:15

None of the zombie horde talk has anything to do with the value of gold and silver. In even a scenario involving death camps and prison farms, there could very well be an elite of wealth (in whatever form) holders who would probably value precious metals as they always have.

How about... a long time before any of that doomer porn is necessary, the government institutes a WPA-type project in which workers are bussed to farms in their area to replace some of the petro-inputs. The landowner pays for the labor with a share of the produce, which are then used to pay the workers. Having the govt as the go-between could eliminate the problems of the sharecropper system. Of course, it wouldn't have to be limited to farm work. There would be needs for human labor to take the place of all sorts of work now done with fossil fuels.

Yes, this would be a wasteful, inefficient, and probably corruptible system, but it would keep a lot of people out of the zombie category, long enough for more market-based low-energy solutions to come along.

I also found myself writing a short dissertation on the plantation system, but will instead put it in a seperate entry to make it less confusing.
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