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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 30 Jan 2015, 05:41:18

Cmon man give us the stuff we know you have more.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 31 Jan 2015, 22:23:10

It only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline. Also there own domestic use of oil is increasing (because of an increasing population and also increasing per capita usage of oil), so they even have less oil to export to the rest of the world. When Saudi Arabia is no longer able to export oil to the rest of the world, the world will be in quite a shock. But it is no surprise this day will come because Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are not infinite. They will eventually peak and decline like what happened to the USA in the 1970s. And if Saudi Arabia peaks and declines that means the whole world will peak and decline because Saudi Arabia contains 1/4 of the world's oil reserves. Saudi Arabia contains the largest oil reserves on this planet.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 11:08:18

It only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.


nothing to do with supply, their exports are dropping because of lower demand for their oil.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 12:02:23

Saudi EXPORTS (not production) were declining long before the drop in prices and lower demand. And now the Red Sea refinery JV with China alone has the potential to reduce KSA oil EXPORTS by 600,000 bopd.

Cue westexas and ELM.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby westexas » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 13:12:13

As annual Brent oil prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive, annual Saudi net oil exports have been below the 2005 annual rate of 9.1 mbpd (total petroleum liquids + other liquids, EIA) for 8 straight years (and apparently 9 years, through 2014). Their net exports averaged 8.7 mbpd for 2011 to 2013, as annual Brent crude oil prices averaged $110.

While one can argue that they chose to reduce their net exports after 2005, I have a hard time seeing lower demand as an explanation in the 2011 to 2013 time frame. Note that as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 17:54:02

rockdoc123 wrote:
It only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.


nothing to do with supply, their exports are dropping because of lower demand for their oil.

Saudi Arabia has reached peak and will soon enter decline. Meaning the whole world has now reached peak and will soon enter decline. That's a fact. Of course, the government of Saudi Arabia will never tell its citizens that they have reached peak and will be going in decline because the average Saudi is expecting higher standards of living for their growing population.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 22:38:24

D - From the perspective of us heavy oil users perhaps we should start focusing more on POE (Peak Oil Exports) rather then POP (Peak Oil Production). In the future how much oil OPEC exports will become more critical then their production rates. Consider Indonesia. They hit their POP in 1995. But they reached POE four years earlier in 1991. And in 2009 they became a net oil importer and essentially dropped from the list of OPEC countries. We see lots of discussions about different oil exporters increasing or decreasing PRODUCTION in the future. But what should be of more interest to us oil gluttons is the increase or decrease in oil EXPORTS. Such as the potential for Saudi Arabia to DECREASE their oil exports by more than 200 MILLION BBLS PER YEAR now that their 600,000 bopd refinery JV with China has started up.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby TheEnergyMan » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 08:00:59

rockdoc123 wrote:
It only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.


nothing to do with supply, their exports are dropping because of lower demand for their oil.


yup exactly right Rocdoc this is all Saudis are saying. Westexas and others are assuming anything else otherwise.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby westexas » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 10:27:03

To recap, as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005 (approximately doubling), Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005.

As annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive (exactly doubling), Saudi net exports declined, as the Saudi Aramco CEO admitted, to an average rate of 8.7 mbpd for 2011 to 2013 inclusive.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 10:49:45

TheEnergyMan wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
It only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.


nothing to do with supply, their exports are dropping because of lower demand for their oil.


yup exactly right Rocdoc this is all Saudis are saying. Westexas and others are assuming anything else otherwise.
I am not so sure. A famous peak-oil geologist (his name is Jeffrey Bean) modeled something similar, he called it the the Export Land Model.
wiki wrote:As world oil exports approach (or pass) a global peak, the price of exported oil increases and further stimulates domestic economic growth and oil consumption in Export-Land countries, creating a positive feedback process between declining exports and higher prices. Eventually, however, the level of export decline outpaces the increasing oil price, slowing domestic growth. In some cases, an Export Land eventually becomes a net importer. It is unlikely that an Export Land would constrain domestic consumption to help importing countries. In fact, many oil exporting countries subsidize domestic consumption below price levels defined by the world market.

He' pretty famous. I go that from wiki
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 11:00:39

The more pertinent fact is that the total of crude oil exported anywhere in the world peaked in 2005 and is in decline. So as KSA reduces it's exports there is already nowhere else to turn to.
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 11:09:06

vtsnowedin wrote:The more pertinent fact is that the total of crude oil exported anywhere in the world peaked in 2005 and is in decline. So as KSA reduces it's exports there is already nowhere else to turn to.
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD

Your assumptions are wrong. Rockdock says demand peaked. Not oil. There is tons of oil under the ground. Everybody has tight-shale. (it's under the Big Ben clock for instance). Green River Shale is huge:

wiki wrote:The Green River Formation contains the largest oil shale deposit in the world. It has been estimated that the oil shale reserves could be equal up to 3 trillion barrels (480 billion cubic metres) of shale oil, up to half of which may be recoverable by shale oil extraction technologies (pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution of kerogen in oil shale).[12][13][14][15][16]

Do the math (I can't) but 3 trillion/30 billion (one year) is like 100 years or something. With high technology (AI, robots, etc.) this stuff is easy to get, without all those damn envros :-x
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 11:34:29

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:The more pertinent fact is that the total of crude oil exported anywhere in the world peaked in 2005 and is in decline. So as KSA reduces it's exports there is already nowhere else to turn to.
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD

Your assumptions are wrong. Rockdock says demand peaked. Not oil. There is tons of oil under the ground. Everybody has tight-shale. (it's under the Big Ben clock for instance). Green River Shale is huge:

wiki wrote:The Green River Formation contains the largest oil shale deposit in the world. It has been estimated that the oil shale reserves could be equal up to 3 trillion barrels (480 billion cubic metres) of shale oil, up to half of which may be recoverable by shale oil extraction technologies (pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution of kerogen in oil shale).[12][13][14][15][16]

Do the math (I can't) but 3 trillion/30 billion (one year) is like 100 years or something. With high technology (AI, robots, etc.) this stuff is easy to get, without all those damn envros :-x

That it declined is a fact not an assumption. With a growing world population any demand decline will be temporary until production costs rise to the point of universal non- affordability.
Green river is nice but how much can they produce from it on a daily basis all things including environmental concerns being considered.
You should have extended your quote from wiki to include this next line.
However, the above quoted estimate of 'recoverable' oil is in doubt, and challenged, by many renowned geologists[who?] because the technology for recovering oil from the Green River oil shale deposit has not been developed, and it has never been profitably implemented at any significant scale.[17]
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 12:45:15

I am not so sure of that snowyguy;

“THE Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” This intriguing prediction is often heard in energy circles these days. If greens were the only people to be expressing such thoughts, the notion might be dismissed as Utopian. However, the quotation is from Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as his country's oil minister three decades ago. His words are rich in irony.
Exactly.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 14:40:14

pstarr wrote:I am not so sure of that snowyguy;

“THE Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” This intriguing prediction is often heard in energy circles these days. If greens were the only people to be expressing such thoughts, the notion might be dismissed as Utopian. However, the quotation is from Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as his country's oil minister three decades ago. His words are rich in irony.
Exactly.

I'm not sure of what "that "you are referring too. As to total world exports I do believe it is the important number and trend if you are in an oil importing country. As production declines producing countries will satisfy their own internal demand first and only have the excess to export. As many exporting countries have growing populations and economies their own internal consumption is growing so while we might have a considerable growth in total world production the net exported can and will drop. It matters not if Iran (or anybody else) has more oil to drive around their own cars and irrigation pumps. That oil is meaningless to us. What we need to worry about is the amount they have to sell on the world market.
The USA is in a unique position in that we produce more then half of our consumption and also consume oil at more then twice the world average per capita rate. If there was no oil anywhere available to import to the USA we could get by by cutting consumption down to world averages.
The whining would be something to behold but we could do it and may well have to in the not to distant future.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 19:28:56

One of the issues is what all comprises demand. Some here like to think of demand for Saudi oil in terms of "world demand". The concept isn't the same. SA exports crude that has specific quality issues that makes it high demand in some areas and lower demand in others. We saw this quite well when SA stepped in to make up for the 300,000 bbls that were lost to Libya insurgency. That particular oil was sold into the European market and SA did not have the crude with the same characteristics available but they were able to trade their crude for the needed crude type elsewhere.

So demand for SA crude is of course rooted in world wide demand but it is just as importantly driven by who needs the type of crude they are producing. The Safaniya heavy crude and the Shabah super light crude have specific markets and hence compete with different sources.

In any event my original comment of trying to read anything into Saudi production capability based on a decrease in exports is rather silly, especially since they recently dropped the price for their exported crude to several markets. If they didn't have the oil available they wouldn't be selling what they did have at a discount. My point I made a long time ago still stands. When someone wants to buy SA crude at a high price and they can't deliver then you know there is a problem.
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 22:19:27

westexas wrote:To recap, as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005 (approximately doubling), Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005.

As annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive (exactly doubling), Saudi net exports declined, as the Saudi Aramco CEO admitted, to an average rate of 8.7 mbpd for 2011 to 2013 inclusive.

Might that have something to do with the fact that one of their largest customers, the US, has seen its own production increase dramatically, and thus don't need to import as much Saudi oil?

Naaaah. Couldn't be. Surely there must be a 1-to-1 correspondence to the price of Brent and Saudi exports, and that absolutely nothing else matters. Not a thing. The mere existence of higher prices must either mean the Saudis are going to export more oil, or if they don't, then that must mean peak oil is here! :roll:

Notice US imports from KSA are now at levels last seen during the height of the financial crisis ...

Image

... While US production has gone through the roof.

Image

But I think westexas is going to tell us it's all just a coincidence! :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our exports are gradually declining"

Unread postby marmico » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 04:17:49

To recap, as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $12.76 in 1998 to $24.99 in 2002 (approximately doubling), Saudi net exports decreased from 8.03 mbpd in 1998 to 7.13 mbpd in 2002.

Another example of negative correlation between the Brent price and Saudi net exports.

Westexas is a data cherry picker.
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Re: THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 22 Dec 2016, 22:18:48

They are still running a deficit on spending. And the King has said it is mainly about diversification.

Saudi Arabia to boost 2017 spending as it cuts into huge state deficit

Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it had successfully cut into its huge state budget deficit this year and will increase government spending in 2017 to boost flagging economic growth.

The deficit shrank to 297 billion riyals ($79 billion) in 2016. That was well below a record 367 billion gap in 2015, and below the government's projection in its original 2016 budget plan of a deficit of 326 billion riyals.

"Our economy, thank God, is sturdy and it has enough strength to cope with the current economic and financial challenges," King Salman said in a nationally televised address to introduce the budget for 2017.

The financial challenges for Saudi Arabia stem largely from the fall in the global price of oil over the past 2½ years.

http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/markets/saudi-arabia-ready-for-aramco-s-share-sale-in-domestic-market-1.1941299
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Cyberattack Targets Safety System at Saudi Aramco

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 09:57:51


Malicious software attacked a safety system in August at Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, in what is the first-ever example of malware targeting the computer systems designed to prevent a disaster at an industrial facility. The attack was first described by the computer security firm FireEye in a blog post last week, which did not name the victim of the attack. But a confidential report obtained by Foreign Policy and authored by Area 1 Security, a computer security firm founded by veterans of the U.S. National Security Agency, identifies Aramco as the victim of the attack. In a statement, Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company and a pillar of its economy, denied the attack took place: “Saudi Aramco corporate and plants networks were not part of any cyber security attack or breach.” FireEye declined to comment on its clients or the


Cyberattack Targets Safety System at Saudi Aramco
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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