THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 2 (merged)

[eXpat]

I bet is to power the russian tanks, they stole previously

[alokin]

There is something wrong with this story:
First you cannot hide an oil tanker, as said before. What would pirates do with the tanker? Sell it for scrap?
They can sell the oil, but why the would pirates not wait for some month until oil rebounds (as you cannot hide the tanker you must sell it right away). With all the satelites it is easy to trace were the ship is and the unloading of the ship.

The only thing is I can imagine, that if it is not a made-up thing, that pirates hijacked the vessel just to show us how weak and vulnerable we are.

[Plantagenet]

There is something wrong with this story:
First you cannot hide an oil tanker, as said before. What would pirates do with the tanker? Sell it for scrap?
They can sell the oil, but why the would pirates not wait for some month until oil rebounds (as you cannot hide the tanker you must sell it right away). With all the satelites it is easy to trace were the ship is and the unloading of the ship.

The only thing is I can imagine, that if it is not a made-up thing, that pirates hijacked the vessel just to show us how weak and vulnerable we are.

The tanker isn't "hidden." Its been taken into a port in Somalia. The pirates aren't interested in selling the oil. They will hold the tanker and the crew for ransom..... 2 million barrels of oil at $50 a barrel is worth a cool 100 million dollars, and the ship is probably worth another 100 million or so.

How much ransom do you think the Saudis will pay?

[ReverseEngineer]

It would seem to me that unless the hijackers are the suicidal types willing to scuttle the ship while they are still on board that the Navy SEALS should be able to hijack the ship BACK before it makes port. Maybe this is a setup job to showcase the talent of the Special Forces?

The Brit Hostages present a problem of course, soon as you bring in the SEALS for a boarding party, Hostages will be shot and pitched overboard. However, which is worth more, the Oil or a few Brit sailors?

If they do let the ship make a harbor that will fit the draft and it drops anchor, then there is about no way you could get the ship back without either paying a huge ransom or mounting a huge military operation, and chances are the Somalies would then scuttle the ship before you could get it out of the harbor.

There is a decent possibility this is a covert CIA operation designed to get the Saudis to pay us to be their Sea Lane Police Force. Pay off the Somalies to hijack the ship, which then convinces the Saudis they can't sell any oil overseas to anywhere without our protection.

In any event, I can't see Supertankers taking any route that passes within 500 miles of Somalia without having an armed escort at this point. Without the ability to safely export their Oil, the House of Saud is up a creek without a paddle, so they will have to either pay Protection money to the Somalies, or pay Protection money to the US Navy. So basically, we can charge the entire war in Iraq to the Saudis as a Gangland style Protection scheme. We no longer will have to pay taxes to fund the US Military, the Saudis will have to pay the bills

Reverse Engineer

[Ayame]

It would seem to me that unless the hijackers are the suicidal types willing to scuttle the ship while they are still on board

Bagged it in one. The Somali pirates have often threatened to blow themselves up along with precious cargo if a ransom wasn't coughed up.

[ReverseEngineer]

It would seem to me that unless the hijackers are the suicidal types willing to scuttle the ship while they are still on board

Bagged it in one. The Somali pirates have often threatened to blow themselves up along with precious cargo if a ransom wasn't coughed up.

If that is the case, and if this is not a set up job with "prepaid" ransom by the CIA, it still doesn't matter, the only difference is you have to write off this particular tanker and its cargo as a loss. That further reinforces the need for all future tankers to be accompanied by a Protection force of US Navy ships, which the House of Saud has to pay for if they want to market their oil to anyone.

You are only talking here maybe a little over a Billion dollar loss here, what is that compared to the trillions being thrown at the banking industry? There is actually a PROFIT to be made in this one using the US Navy as an Ocean Going Protection Racket.

Reverse Engineer

[ROCKMAN]

Thanks Dude for the catch up.

Dude/Doc -- as far as the high recovery factor I would also be suspicious. But I'll pass along one amazing anecdote. Shell Oil had produced an oil field in S La which we eventually bought. I won't go into the log story as to why the kept producing after the water cut reached 99%+ but they did. I drilled two wells through the series of depleted oil reservoirs. It was something to see. The original water sats were around 40%. Calculating the water sats off my new logs essentially yielded 100%. They apparently recovered 90%+ of the OOIP. A few months after we closed a flow line on top of a well head popped a leak and spewed into the bayou all night before someone noticed. Not only was there no pollution but there wasn't even a sheen on the water. I could guess how long they had continued producing a well with 0% oil cut.

But it does show how high a recovery you can achieve if you produce beyond economic limits.

[GoghGoner]

The tanker as dropped anchor off the coast near Eyl. The locals can see it from shore.

I haven't really followed these piracy stories in the past but it seems most of them end peacefully with ransom paid. I just can't imagine the U.S., Britian, and Saudi Arabia (as the director) not attacking on this one.

[Starvid]

Guys, a supertanker is not $100 million.

More like a billion.

More like $125-150 million. Link.

Not exactly complicated designs. Just freaking big.

Huh. Just goes to show what you can accomplish with cheap labour and mass production. I really thought they were much more expensive than that. Imagine, that huge ship goes for the same price as two 6 tonne fighter-bombers.

I think this is a very good example of the fact that the really expensive things in this world is not commodities like oil and steel, but high-tech and skilled manpower.

[eastbay]

These guys have several hundred crewmembers held hostage as well as about a dozen other ships.

Regaining control of the ship would be fairly simple, but doing so would endanger the several hundred hostages.

That's the concern.

The primary objective is ransom. And stealing whatever they can from the ship and crew. Pretty clever scam.

[Dreamtwister]

Regaining control of the ship would be fairly simple, but doing so would endanger the several hundred hostages.

And now we see why they have such a "noble" code of conduct regarding crews. Or should I say "human shields"?

2 million x 50USD/barrel = 100 million ransom just for the oil. The ship might be wroth the same so maybe 200 million ransom.

That's far too much. The ship and cargo are only worth ~$200M, asking for that much in ransom is just begging for a cruise missile.

Remember, these ships are insured. If the ransom comes anywhere near the cost of ship+cargo, it's cheaper for the company to write it off, claim the insurance money, and pass the cost of increased premiums on to the customers.

Smart pirates would ask for something in the neighborhood of $10-20 million. Of course, smart pirates wouldn't bother with an oil tanker in the first place. With prices this low, it's just not worth the risk.

[davep]

And now we see why they have such a "noble" code of conduct regarding crews. Or should I say "human shields"?

Who said anything about it being noble? It's purely an expedient measure to smooth the commercials by their bosses.

Don't forget that these people are generally ex-fishermen (and their children) who lost their livelihoods after the Government collapsed in the early nineties, leaving their territorial waters unguarded. The waters were then over-exploited by European fishing vessels, leaving the locals with no chance of continuing their lower-impact fishing techniques. Stop fucking demonising people.

[Revi]

They use grappling hooks fired from a cannon and hang cargo nets to climb over the side of these ships. Here is an article from the NY Times from about the time they took those tanks. Interesting to hear what the pirates think is going on:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/world ... ?ref=world

They must consider themselves to be like Robin Hood.

[Dreamtwister]

And now we see why they have such a "noble" code of conduct regarding crews. Or should I say "human shields"?

Who said anything about it being noble? It's purely an expedient measure to smooth the commercials by their bosses.

Don't forget that these people are generally ex-fishermen (and their children) who lost their livelihoods after the Government collapsed in the early nineties, leaving their territorial waters unguarded. The waters were then over-exploited by European fishing vessels, leaving the locals with no chance of continuing their lower-impact fishing techniques. Stop farking demonising people.

I'm not demonizing anyone. I am fully aware of why they are doing it. Under similar circumstances, I would do the same thing.

However, that does not change the fact that they are using the crews as human shields.

[Quagmire]

.
The home port of the Somali pirates is now thriving with newfound wealth:

Somali Pirate Port Becomes Boom Town.
and
This from the BBC:

The coastal region of Puntland is booming.
Fancy houses are being built, expensive cars are being bought - all of this in a country that has not had a functioning central government for nearly 20 years.

.

[GASMON]

Every ship in the area around Somaila / Yemen should have two Gurkahs on board, hidden below decks.



God help the pirates.

Gasmon

[Tanada]

Every ship in the area around Somaila / Yemen should have two Gurkahs on board, hidden below decks.

God help the pirates.

Gasmon

That was more or less my thought, pretty soon the ship owners will start putting a few "Sea Marshall's" on as adjunct crew members whose job will be ship security and dealing with borders. If the pirates lose a boarding crew or two they will have a major attitude adjustment. It is one thing to sail out and board a merchant ship that is basically defenseless and make a tidy profit, its a whole nother story if your freind's went out and never came back.

[yesplease]

The problem w/ that sort of retaliation is that the pirates might respond in kind. A billion dollar ship at the bottom of the sea won't do any good for anyone. Something live a cover over the edges of the ship so that pirates couldn't get any purchase w/ grappling hooks/similar would be the best bet IMO, and maybe cheaper than hiring another two crew members in the long run.

[ReverseEngineer]

Reading further on this story, to this point the shipping companies have been resistant to the idea of hiring armed crew, the reason for this being you actually do the work for the Pirates of getting arms aboard.

If you are an armed guard on a Supertanker worth $200M making say $100K a year, it would be pretty tempting to hijack the ship YOURSELF and pilot it to Somalia. Give the local Somali Pirates a piece of the action, they would be your best friends. LOL.

Anyhow, to adequately protect each ship probably takes a good dozen well armed mercenaries, so your security force for each ship is around $1M/yr if you get your Killers on the cheap at $100K a pop. Now it becomes an actuarial analysis. If there are few hijackings and each one only costs you $10M in Ransom, its probably cheaper to just pay the ransom than hire security personnel. Nowadays with hijackings on the increase, you proabably need to buy some security. It will drive up the cost of doing business, no doubt.

The Good Old Days of Piracy are BACK. Unless Oil Tankers and Food Cargo ships are accompanied by military protection, they WILL be Pirated.

Reverse Engineer

Every ship in the area around Somaila / Yemen should have two Gurkahs on board, hidden below decks.



God help the pirates.

Gasmon

[eastbay]

Every ship in the area around Somaila / Yemen should have two Gurkahs on board, hidden below decks.

God help the pirates.

Gasmon

That was more or less my thought, pretty soon the ship owners will start putting a few "Sea Marshall's" on as adjunct crew members whose job will be ship security and dealing with borders. If the pirates lose a boarding crew or two they will have a major attitude adjustment. It is one thing to sail out and board a merchant ship that is basically defenseless and make a tidy profit, its a whole nother story if your freind's went out and never came back.

Passenger aircraft routinely carry armed anti-hijack officers. Why not ships? A handful of armed men and women would deter most of these pirates and do it fairly cheap too!