THE Price of Crude pt 4 (merged) Archived

[chuck6877]

BitterSweetCrude,

Do you think buying the energy mutual funds would be a good idea?

One of the mutual funds i mentioned has about 28% and the other about 46% foreign energy companies like Canadian companies that are going to extract from the oil sands.

Chuck

[BitterSweetCrude]

I know that about foreign stocks. I was asking if I should buy them, because everyone seems to think the U.S. is going to be completely crippled and that the US Dollar is going to plummet.

If the US Dollar plummets I'll make a lot in the foreign stocks. But I guess if the other foreign stocks PLUMMET MORE, I'll be hurt, especially if every economy on the planet is crippled.

So you're worried that the other economies currencies could do worse than ours huh?

Chuck

Take Japan for example, if you had invested some money in a basket of stocks in their markets about 20-25 years ago, your stock would be about the same value today because their stock market has sucked even in these relatively good times for the global economy. It's just so hard to say what is going to go up and down when times are good that I think it becomes even harder to predict what will happen when things go bad.

Diversification is usually the best move.

[chuck6877]

Would a mutual fund called Capital Preservation fund which basically buys US SHORT TERM treasuries be a bad buy? This way if interest rates rose significantly I would be always buying the new short term tbills.

Would the US govts economy ever get so bad that they couldn't repay their bonds?

Chuck

[BitterSweetCrude]

BitterSweetCrude,

Do you think buying the energy mutual funds would be a good idea?

One of the mutual funds i mentioned has about 28% and the other about 46% foreign energy companies like Canadian companies that are going to extract from the oil sands.

Chuck

I'm not an investment banker but I think that eventually oil from tar sands will be in very high demand. People are always going to want oil even when it gets to $100+ per barrel. And if they can't get what they want from the ground, they'll get it from these tar sands. The best substitute for oil is oil.

[rockdoc123]

Bittersweetcrude

One of the issues with the tar sands and heavy oil is the costs related to the method of extraction. As the cost for energy goes up so do the operating costs for in-situ mining as well as projects such as SAGD. In fact one could argue that the latter may never be economic at any price given that to make steam you need energy. This can come from gas but as oil prices rise so do gas prices. The only hope of extracting oil sands and other heavy oils is going to be in alternate energy sources dedicated to powering the extraction process. As a consequence my guess is the tar sands would be used more for petrochemicals than fuel sources.

[threadbear]

The price of oil will put an automatic ceiling on economic growth. There will be a perpetual recession. When we start to crawl out of it, oil prices will spike up, driving us back down. This is a good thing for the planet. Oil is the most apparent manifestation of an exhausted planet, one that will provide an instant karmic lesson about the nature of the finite. Let the free marketeers try to convince people of the endless abundance of everything, when they're on rationed energy, or when they have very little energy as the rich get it all.... The Mercedes/donkey cart economy.

I'm very suspicious of anyone advocating stratospheric gas prices, for this reason. If they don't understand demand destruction, they're simply not reliable, in terms of analysis. Even with big oil manipulation of price, the prices will not be driven up past the point where people will starve en masse, in the US. Noone wants that, not even the Mayberry Machiovellis and their buddies.

[Barbara]

http://www.mosnews.com/money/2005/05/20/oilprice.shtml

Russian Expert Predicts Oil Prices of $80 Per Barrel by August
Created: 20.05.2005 14:58 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 16:10 MSK

MosNews

The world oil price could grow to $80-100 per barrel by late August, Vasily Petrov, an expert from the Russian Center of Strategic Developments said on Friday, May 20. The forecast was published in Russia’s Independent Gazette (Nezavisimoya Gazeta) political daily.
The oil industry is experiencing a bear market, as oil prices plunged to their three-month low in secondary trading. Oil prices reached their first peak in September 2004, after which they declined. A second peak was registered in March. Petrov says that the third peak could come in late summer, as China is expected to sharply increase its demand for electric power and will require a large amount of oil to process it into diesel fuel.
Alexei Belashov from the Barrel investment company is more moderate in his forecasts. “The demand in China is strong and growing and its economy is developing. However, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the United States is introducing quotas on Chinese products, like textiles. Nevertheless, the United States is trying in every possible way to restrain the upsurge in China’s growth,” he said.
According to Belashov, the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi has said that oil reserves are sufficient and oil-producing nations would be able to meet the demand. “That is why I do not see any strong prerequisites for growth, like in the situation when oil prices leaped to $60 per barrel. At that time, there was uncertainty in the Far East and the dynamics of China’s demand was unclear. Besides, the U.S. petroleum stocks had declined significantly. Today they are growing and there are no reasons for any anxiety,” Belashov said.
The world oil market is now looking for a fair oil price, expected to hover between $45 and $50 per barrel. “The only thing that could prompt rapid growth is the start of a U.S. military campaign against Iran. This event would cause a swift rise in oil prices. However, this is unlikely to happen. The U.S. is bogged down in Iraq,” the expert added.

[linlithgowoil]

i'll believe it when i see it. i could only see $80 a barrel if we lost about 2-4 million barrels a day of production, not just because demand is strong and supply is barely meeting it.

yes, if iran is attacked, we'd see $80 or even $100, but that isnt going to happen, i dont think. the US wouldnt really get away with it, unless iran actually overtly comes out and fires a missile at israel or something.

[aahala]

I find the prediction very unlikely, barring a complete shutdown of a
major oil producer. Sharply higher prices reduce the amount demanded
and a percentage increase like that will probably drop demand 10MBD or
more.

While consumers resist reductions in use, producers are addicted to
the money received. What combination of countries is going to drop production by double digits?

[lexicon]

If Hersh and Ritter are right about Iran being the next PNAC target this summer, $80 sounds about right.

[goldfishbowl42]

I can see oil going to $80 this summer. Late this summer and year we will see the annual rise in demand and as far as I can see OPEC has no answer. The rest of the world certainly doesn't.

We will hit $80 by the end of the year and $55 will be next springs bottom of the market, before going into the $150 range late 2006.

[Armageddon]

http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/


it seems rather easy for terrrorists to do also.

[Armageddon]

TARGET: OIL

1 June 2005: Terrorist web sites are posting numerous threats to specific oil pipelines, wells and tankers, concentrating on hitting a tanker to block commercial oil traffic in strategic areas, including narrow straits and inlets. Although this concept is nothing new, there appears to be a resurgence of such communications. Many postings contain satellite images of specific potential target areas. All such data has been turned over to the proper authorities and companied identified by name have been alerted.



=========================

i coppied it because they update their site alot.

[EnemyCombatant]

booga booga

Al CIAda will attack when they are good and ready. Expect for Patriot Act XYZ to be on the House floor the day after.

Seriously, if there is another terrorist attack, wonder to yourself why -- what's the agenda, not who.

[frankthetank]

Not sure if i'll be able to sleep tonight...

[rockdoc123]

interesting how the picture shown in the article is a tanker cruising through the straits of Hormuz with a nice panoramic view of the Iranian coastline........perhaps building up more excuses to invade Iran and secure oil resources for the world before the Al Qaida terrorists who are no doubt in control of the Mullahs blockade!

[smiley]

interesting how the picture shown in the article is a tanker cruising through the straits of Hormuz with a nice panoramic view of the Iranian coastline........perhaps building up more excuses to invade Iran and secure oil resources for the world before the Al Qaida terrorists who are no doubt in control of the Mullahs blockade!

It would be. Only it's a picture of the Bosporus

[seldom_seen]

That's the French oil tanker Limburg, that was attacked off the coast of Yemen, October 6, 2002.

[savethehumans]

The Bosphorus would be a heck of a good target. . .ship traffic alone can clog the place up. Ship traffic blocked by a blown-up ship--well, I'm surprised they haven't tried that yet.

Suez Canal would be good, too--do oil tankers go through there? Oh! And the Strait of Gibralter!

Geez, I'm just a pacifistic, PO-aware, middle-aged woman. If I can think of these things, the terrorists and insurgents must be awaiting the day....

[pea-jay]

Forget the shipping channels...worry about the bottle neck locations where crude funnels through a very small area. Like near loading faciliies in Saudi Arabia or receiving terminals in the gulf of Mexico