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The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 05 May 2007, 09:07:32

Last week, US gasoline stockpiles dropped for the 12th straight week by another 1.1 million barrels as US motorists continued to burn up gasoline at a rate 1.6 percent higher than last year. While refinery utilization at 88.3 percent is still well below what is needed to build up stocks for the summer driving season, refiners did manage to produce another 300,000 barrels of gasoline per day which reduced the pace at which gasoline stockpiles have been dropping; 1 million barrels last week vs. the 4 million barrels per week we saw earlier last month. US imports remained the same last week at 1.2 million barrels per day, also well below the 1.5-1.6 required to build up stockpiles for the summer.


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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 05 May 2007, 12:18:29

US imports remained the same last week at 1.2 million barrels per day, also well below the 1.5-1.6 required to build up stockpiles for the summer.


I wonder where Tom could have read that?
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby NEOPO » Sat 05 May 2007, 14:47:32

shortonoil wrote:
US imports remained the same last week at 1.2 million barrels per day, also well below the 1.5-1.6 required to build up stockpiles for the summer.


I wonder where Tom could have read that?

I wonder if any of our members live near Falls Church VA? 8)
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 05 May 2007, 16:03:01

This has happened for the last two years and isn't indicative of a peak so much as a shortage of refinery capacity. During 01, 02, and 03 forward supply was ~25 days, in 04/05 it was ~22 days, and now it's ~21 days. Our refinery capacity otoh has been relatively flat, which is why the ~1-1.5% increase in consumption each year has, and likely will, bring about higher prices, especially during the travel seasons. Now, I'm not saying we have or haven't *peaked, just that refinery throughput probably isn't matching consumption increases, which can just as easily drive up the price of gasoline.

If gasoline price swings were based on oil prices, we would be seeing a steady $75-80/bbl, but we're not.
Image
If refinery capacity continues to lag behind demand, the minimum price for each year will increase, the peak price will increase, and the peak will last longer as well.

*We can only definitively say we've peaked after the fact. Everything else is just speculation. ;)
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 06 May 2007, 12:58:24

yesplease said:

We can only definitively say we've peaked after the fact. Everything else is just speculation.


The only thing we can say, about anything definitively, is after the fact. There is no branch of human knowledge that definitively predicts the future. We can only look at the probabilities that something will be occurring in the future. Comments like the one above are nonproductive and misleading.

What is the probability that we have hit peak? - quit high from the point of view of my evaluations and calculations; I guess you are suggesting that yours are low? Would you care to put a number on it?
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 06 May 2007, 13:35:23

That's interesting. Why don't you post those evaluations and calculations? I'd like to see why you think the probability of a peak at this moment or earlier is quite high.

Btw- by stating that we won't know we've peaked until after the fact, I'm implying that I don't believe I have enough information to predict when we will peak with a high degree of certainty, and that imo no one has enough information to predict it with a very large degree of certainty, unlike descriptive methods like Physics, which is pretty damn accurate. Not that I'm suggesting the probability of a peak now is low. In fact, I don't see how you can get that I'm stating the probability of peak is low at all... Do you also think I like oil refineries because I mentioned them in my last post? :P
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 06 May 2007, 13:58:38

yesplease said:

That's interesting. Why don't you post those evaluations and calculations? I'd like to see why you think the probability of a peak at this moment or earlier is quite high.


You will find a short discussion of it here -

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic22248-0-asc-60.html

Posted: Sun Apr 29, 2007 4:10 am

A more thorough analysis is coming in the next few weeks.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 07 May 2007, 08:15:02

I don't know where Tom would have read that but I wouldn't doubt him because he has access to information that many don't. He compiles the ASPO USA daily and weekly newsfeeds and is a news junkie.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 14:40:04

shortonoil wrote:What is the probability that we have hit peak? - quit high from the point of view of my evaluations and calculations; I guess you are suggesting that yours are low? Would you care to put a number on it?


So a decade after you were quite bullish on peak oil, and it led to glut and low prices, is THAT the reason you need to randomly assemble curves to pretend it matters, THIS time?
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby sparky » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 22:37:09

.
@ yes please
"If gasoline price swings were based on oil prices, we would be seeing a steady $75-80/bbl, but we're not."

I'm confused , are you telling me the US gasoline price drive the crude oil barrel price ?
I would have thought there are many others drivers .
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 00:27:54

sparky wrote:.
@ yes please
"If gasoline price swings were based on oil prices, we would be seeing a steady $75-80/bbl, but we're not."

I'm confused , are you telling me the US gasoline price drive the crude oil barrel price ?
I would have thought there are many others drivers .


I'm not sure yes will be able to respond. I've been digging around in the archives, and yes please might be one who decided to leave and hope folks wouldn't notice that he fell for the kind of stunts shorty has been pulling. Oil is going up! Wait! But it didn't! I changed my mind! Now it can only go down! Let me get you a Larouche reference proving it! Wait...nobody will take me seriously if I do that. So let me make up a random equation...look at that R squared! It is BEE YUUUU TEE FULLL!
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 00:53:40

I cannot answer what Yes was thinking, but when I take the statements made and then look at the graph provided, what I understood it to mean was that there is not a 1-to-1 correlation between crude oil prices and the at the pump price of gasoline. In other words the price at the pump has not declined from the peak price nearly as fast (in % terms) as the oil price.

In simple maths terms (rounded etc). If there was a 1-to-1 correlation then if oil prices dropped from $140 to $45 that is a 68% fall from the peak, but the pump price (as shown in the graph) fell from $4.00 to $3.30 only a 17.5% drop.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: Week twelve

Unread postby sparky » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 10:31:01

.
What make you think there is a 1to1 correlation between the US gasoline and world crude prices per barrel

1- crude price is one of the input into refineries cost ,they do make a lot of other stuff
it depend on the feed-stock but out of one barrel of crude there is 20 gallons of gasoline made
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=327&t=9
even discounting the 10 gallons of distillates plus many other products, the relationship would be 1/20 for a price rise
2- there is something called "the rest of the world"
you would be shocked to know the US account for one tenth of the world car market
https://www.statista.com/topics/1487/au ... -industry/
3- the oil companies are notorious for delaying the downward movement of their products prices to get better margins
as long as imports don't break the market , why not ,
the first law of economics is to get as much as the customer is willing to pay
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