pstarr wrote:I know ennui, you have repeated your tired old saw a thousand times: let's all repeat it one more time. It's a supply glut!
But it is not. It is a demand dearth.
OK pstarr, with respect -- help me understand this please:
If it is a demand dearth, why is the amount of global oil consumption rising meaningfully every year since 2009?
If it is a demand dearth, why has the big oil price drop only occurred after significantly higher sustained production, since the basic global economic climate has consistently been fairly slow growth since spring of 2009 (overall)?
If it is a demand dearth, why are high consumption countries like the US and China seeing record quantities of new cars being bought recently, at record prices (implying burning more gasoline on average, which increases demand?)
If it were a demand dearth, I would expect to see a far more widespread trend of things that indicate lack of demand. Like people buying far less new cars -- or buying high mileage hybrids. Or driving far less, since they can't afford to.
The net increase in oil demand is even in the face of technology which is raising the global vehicle fleet average mpg significantly over time (i.e. US CAFE standards and fleet average mileage).
If it were a demand dearth, then the amount of oil consumed globally should be decreasing, to match the decreasing demand.
...
If you can clearly explain in simple econ 101 terms why what is going on in the real world of supply and demand represents a demand dearth, I'll take your claim seriously, and investigate this further. Otherwise, I just can't begin to buy it.
And claiming the ETP model says it must be so, etc. doesn't cut it, IMO. I'm talking about facts on the ground, not theories that say what must happen years or decades or months from now -- when those dire events never (historically, anyway) have materialized. IOW, I'm looking for evidence, not conjecture.