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THE Oil Drum Thread pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 00:09:39

John_A wrote:
This thread is about the REAL reason TOD is closing Ralfy, not the press release pablum you seem to have fallen for so readily.


But what TOD gave is the real reason. Claims that peak oil is "going, going, gone" is inconsistent with the use of unconventional oil and more reports that have appeared during the past five years.
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 00:12:22

John_A wrote:Pretty mealy mouthed answer Sam.

"Against the assault of laughter, nothing can stand." - Mark Twain

Credibility matters, sure. Mark Twain had this one covered, because while they might not laugh in public, exactly what do you think they are saying in private over lunch Sam?


I know what they were saying over lunch because I was there as well. I am not providing you any more ammunition on this topic, you appear to have an interest in this beyond just finding a plausible reason for why they really might have closed up shop. One of them piss in your Cheerios some morning or something?
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 00:14:45

ralfy wrote:
John_A wrote:
This thread is about the REAL reason TOD is closing Ralfy, not the press release pablum you seem to have fallen for so readily.


But what TOD gave is the real reason.


How do you know that?
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 00:35:23

John_A wrote:
Read the title to this thread Ralfy. From the Forbes article:

The main reason why Peak Oil theorists always turn out to be wrong is that they by and large appear to be unable to grasp the huge role advancing technology plays in allowing the industry to discover new oil resources previously unknown, to access known resources that were previously thought to be unexploitable, and to extract an ever-increasing percentage of oil long known to be in place via secondary and tertiary recovery techniques. They appear to believe – either through lack of imagination or due to political convenience – that current assessments of available resources in known formations will always remain static and never increase, never understanding or acknowledging that those assessments will rise along with advances in technology.


Go compare that to what Euan wrote here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10093

and you discover real quickly that Forbes is saying the same thing Euan is. You really shouldn't be this gullible Ralfy, Heading Out looks to be talking out of one side of TODs mouth, and then Euan comes along and kicks his head in and says Forbes was right.

Read the title to the thread Ralfy, this isn't about press release pablum or attempts by TOD staff to cover their retreat. Just in case your reading comprehensions stays at its normal level, I'll make sure to place the emphasis properly for you.

What really killed The Oil Drum.


But as explained to you many times discovering new resources doesn't lead to long-term and secure increases in oil and gas production, and there's no guarantee that the expected production rate will meet demand. See several of the reports that mentioned in this forum for details.

For example, the Citi report argues that oil consumption for North America will rise to 12 Mb/d in a decade, but after that will start to drop. Current consumption for the U.S. alone is 19 Mb/d.

The IEA 2010 report states that with maximum depletion rates reached all oil and gas sources worldwide will lead to energy produced by only 9 pct during the next two decades. But oil consumption has been rising by 2 pct a year during the last three decades. That means even with maximum production levels oil expected oil consumption will not be reached. That is why the IEA argues that oil consumption increase will have to be decreased by more than half, with renewable energy making up for what is lacking. This will require extensive cooperation and coordination between governments, something that we have not seen during the past few decades.

Some more points need to be repeated:

The fact that we are now resorting to unconventional oil doesn't show that peak oil is "going, going, gone" but confirms the problem. Otherwise, there'd be no need at all to use unconventional oil.

The problem is that rosy forecasts based ironically on the same claims to "advanced technology" and technofixes did not take place. Crude oil production did not rise considerably and oil prices did not drop to less than $30 a barrel. Saudi Arabia claims in 2009 of reaching a production rate of 15 Mb/d by 2011 did not materialize.

More important is the fact that oil production is used by a growing global population and growing resource demands. Thus, the claim that peak oil is "going, going, gone" comes too late as oil production per capita peaked back in 1979. Meanwhile, not only is the population still growing but so is resource demand due to a increasing global middle class. That is why even as oil consumption drops for the U.S., EU, and Japan due to economic crises it is rising considerably worldwide even with a tripling of prices.

According to the IEA, in order to meet that growing demand and economic growth, we will not additional production equivalent to one Saudi Arabia every seven years. And if we need additional oil to transition to other energy sources, then we will need even more. And if demand from that middle class continues to grow, fueled by increasing credit from a financial elite that can only profit through more production and consumption of goods.....

That is why in contrast to the Forbes piece, what Mearns offers is much more accurate and confirms what the IEA said. But what the IEA presents are not forecasts but scenarios given certain conditions met. And those conditions involve strong government policies and incredible levels of cooperation and coordination between governments.

When I look at what happened during the past six decades, I did not see that cooperation and coordination save in the Green Revolution, which ironically solved and created new problems. That is, the use of oil and other resources led to higher food production and manufacturing, which in turn led to lower infant mortality rates and longer life expectancy rates. But that in turn led to a doubling of the global population in only a few decades, leading to incredible levels of stress on ecosystems. Worse, as more of the same population vied for a middle class lifestyle, resource consumption increased readily.

Meanwhile, military forces were used to control various resources and ensure strategic advantages. The financial elite gambled heavily, leading to financial risks and in turn economic crises. The effects of increased oil consumption, which include global warming, has led to more stress on resource availability and growing concerns even from the IEA. All of these in turn have contributed to high food and oil prices, in turn contributing to social unrest worldwide. All of these points, BTW, were mentioned in Mearns' article.

Given these combinations of predicaments and problems, how can long-term cooperation, coordination, and planning towards effective energy and resource use take place?
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 00:37:31

SamInNebraska wrote:
How do you know that?


Because the reasons given by John are wrong. In which case, the best answer is given by those who closed the site. That's it.
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 09:53:36

ralfy wrote:
SamInNebraska wrote:
How do you know that?


Because the reasons given by John are wrong.


You don't know that any more than you know TOD is telling the truth.

And John, in his speculation on why TOD might be closing, the REAL reason, has already nailed something that HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. Worse yet, it wasn't in private.

You can disagree with his conclusions (that being laughed at is a part of the motivation to close TOD) but you can't say he is wrong when what he is basing his conclusion on is a fact.

ralfy wrote:In which case, the best answer is given by those who closed the site. That's it.


In other words you don't know, you are just taking their word for it. Some people are just not naturally gullible.
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby John_A » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 13:20:52

SamInNebraska wrote:
John_A wrote:Pretty mealy mouthed answer Sam.

"Against the assault of laughter, nothing can stand." - Mark Twain

Credibility matters, sure. Mark Twain had this one covered, because while they might not laugh in public, exactly what do you think they are saying in private over lunch Sam?


I know what they were saying over lunch because I was there as well. I am not providing you any more ammunition on this topic, you appear to have an interest in this beyond just finding a plausible reason for why they really might have closed up shop. One of them piss in your Cheerios some morning or something?


Spoil sport.

First you provide evidence of exactly the sort of giggle factor I figured must be happening, and now you intimate but won't tell us how bad it might have been during private conversations?
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 01:26:49

SamInNebraska wrote:
You don't know that any more than you know TOD is telling the truth.



All I am doing is challenging claims that peak oil is "going, going, gone."


And John, in his speculation on why TOD might be closing, the REAL reason, has already nailed something that HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. Worse yet, it wasn't in private.



The use of unconventional oil does not show that peak oil is "going, going, gone" but the opposite.


You can disagree with his conclusions (that being laughed at is a part of the motivation to close TOD) but you can't say he is wrong when what he is basing his conclusion on is a fact.



The problem isn't that facts aren't used. It's that the conclusions based on those facts are wrong.

ralfy wrote:
In other words you don't know, you are just taking their word for it. Some people are just not naturally gullible.


But the reason for arguing otherwise, i.e., peak is "going, going, gone," has been countered.
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 02:19:39

This thread has gone way beyond any sensible discussion. Cornucopians have seized on the closing of TOD as an indication that peak oil isn't happening. they seem to think fracking shale for dribbles of oil somehow means happy days are here again :roll:
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Re: What really killed The Oil Drum?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 08:59:24

Plantagenet wrote:This thread has gone way beyond any sensible discussion. Cornucopians have seized on the closing of TOD as an indication that peak oil isn't happening. they seem to think fracking shale for dribbles of oil somehow means happy days are here again :roll:


I'm still waiting for my $0.40/gal gasoline to come back, that was the happy days. We've been suffering in this endless oil crunch for nearly 40 years now, everything this century has been mostly just flash in the pan hullabaloo by those who haven't been around long enough to be told "there ain't no more buddy, now go home and be happy with the 5 gallons I let you buy".
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THE Oil Drum Thread pt. 2

Unread postby John_A » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 14:28:01

pstarr wrote:Snarky, childish grandstanding.

You don't stop, do you John. You done everything but insult the electrons that leave TOD site.


I am agnostic when it comes to electrons.

pstarr wrote: That place is still populated by dozens of folks, experts in power generation, well construction, engineers, geologists, etc. etc. who know more than you have forgotten. Show us your resume. Or STFU


And their contribution to the website (and apparently the quality as well, if Sam is to be believed) is so extraordinary that "That place is still populated" is about to change to past tense.

Anyone want to offer odds on when ASPO-USA collapses and dissolves for the same CLAIMED reasons that TOD is? Plus, the board members will announce they want to spend more time with their families (they are based in Washington after all). :lol:
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Re: THE Oil Drum Thread (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 22:25:05

If these organizations do not last, it won't be because peak oil is "going, going, gone" but the opposite.
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Re: THE Oil Drum Thread (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Sat 24 Aug 2013, 07:57:20

The world is a much better place without TOD in it.

Filled with greenie, progressive liberals whose only solution to energy needs was to tax the hell out of everyone so we would stop using energy. Thankfully, no important policy makers, except the Teleprompter-in-Chief every bought into that nonsense.
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Re: THE Oil Drum Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Sat 24 Aug 2013, 08:12:36

ralfy wrote:If these organizations do not last, it won't be because peak oil is "going, going, gone" but the opposite.


Yes, the horrifying consequences of peak oil have undoubtedly driven such a lack of interest in the topic that TOD is going belly up, with ASPO-USA to follow. Makes perfect sense.
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Re: THE Oil Drum Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 24 Aug 2013, 10:16:35

pstarr wrote:the short attention spam of the average internet-troll is not a measure of a web site's validity or usefulness. The Drudgereport get more hits than http://www.classicalarchives.com. Which one serves a purpose?


Oh come on Pete, both website serve a purpose. Just because you do not personally like Matt Drudge and his website or some punk inner city kid doesn't like the Classics has nothing to do with the value of either. I hardly ever look at the Drudge Report these days, it is far too easy to use internet search sites to find the news I am looking for independently. When he first created the site that wasn't necessarily the case. As for the Classics, they were a valuable thing to study way back in college and gave those who did so a solid grounding in how cultures can change over time. They are a great foundation to build upon, but if you don't do any building up then they are just trivia.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Oil Drum Thread (merged)

Unread postby Lore » Sat 24 Aug 2013, 11:11:40

You mean there are actually people who have built their foundation on the Drudge Report? :?
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: THE Oil Drum Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Sat 24 Aug 2013, 14:34:01

Lore wrote:You mean there are actually people who have built their foundation on the Drudge Report? :?


or on TOD? :?
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