[dunewalker]

Patience, I see better where you were headed regarding pv, thanks. It's a no-brainer that you don't generate electric heat via pv as there are more direct ways. I meant that given that you want electricity, pv is the simplest--what you do with the power is another issue.

[Mike Morin]

I should clarify that the reason I won't consider socialist solutions here, is that it involves govt, which invariably screw up everything they touch. Exhibit A: Where we are right now.

I rest my case.

That's why I referred to it (in my second post) other than socialist, because many, including yourself, misunderstand the term socialist.

There are many schools of thought that sail under the banner of "socialism" and big government is very unpopular with most socialists these days, as with many more in the past than you would think.

The big government label is a smear tactic against socialism. The tendency that I ascribe to would best be called libertarian cooperative communitarianism.

The word socialism was coined by an English cooperative communitarian, Robert Owen, because he argued that it was important to take care of the truely needy, the infirm. He did not argue that such was the responsibility of government, but the responsibility of society (family, neighbors, community).

Certainly, government will persist as long as an economy and "civilization" does. We agree that government should be minimized. What government that does remain should help faciltate the peaceful cooperation of private parties whose economic activities are motivated by peoples' needs, not personal profit.


Mike Morin

[AgentR]

Do you disagree with just the language, or with the concept as well (pun intended).

I disagree strongly with the principles of taking hundreds of millions of people and mixing up their lives trying to get them to do what they aren't any good at doing; and then using a deified personality cult to cover up the disaster that insues.

I liked "rewrite"; as its peaceful, and when people read or write, its a personal experience; and I think the change would have to be personal. A revaluation. For instance, while I am completely removed from any sense of desiring the approval of those around me, most are not. A modest person, gainfully employed, will not react favorably to receiving scorn or pity from those around him simply because he might choose to walk or ride a bike a few miles to work. How does one propose to cause my beloved, but likely insane cousin, Redneck Bob, to not want to throw his mostly empty beer can at the modest person riding their bicycle to work. Bob's not being mean, he just thinks its funny. Rationalizing with Bob usually results in more drinking, and edifying comments such as, "boy, you really need to get back to the sticks; town's done messed up your head." Followed by shouldering a rifle and plinking the stop sign, just for fun.

I say this, because I think a lot of utopian paradise planners live in a very protected, isolated, academic world, sealed off and remote from trailer parks, $300/mo apartments, and ten year old cars with no A/C. Yet those things make up a huge segment of the American experience, like it or not. And like it or not; a good measure of them think they are each, individually the most awesome hotness on the block. So they aren't going to show up at your ecoplanned job; they are going to throw beer cans at your pedestrians and cyclists; and they are going to be enormously difficult to bring on board any kind of change that doesn't involve more beer, more cars, and more girls.

That be us. Leave us out of your plan, at your peril.

[Mike Morin]

......We need a planned economy to effectively retrofit the infrastructure and to rebuild our communities to be walkable, therefore eliminating the terrible daily waste of oil/energy resources for transportation purposes.

A planned economy will NEVER work because it creates Moral hazard.

Those in charge of the planning aka government agents do so using my tax money and NOT their own money.
Therefore if the plan fails it's my problem not theirs.

ummm no thanks.

No, you're jumping to conclusions. I am not a government agent and given a unified plan based on an explicit mission and principles, I would put my money towards such community betterment projects and programs. It is my intention to convince other private players to do similarly.

Capitalists sometimes or often use "their" money. I suppose that you're going to tell me that it was the Rockefellers who built the railroads. They use my money and they use the Governments' money (don't kid yourself on the last one). It's not Capitalist Contractors that build highways, courthouses, prisons, get humongous defense contracts. If their selfish speculations fail, it's our problem and not all that often theirs, becasue they spread their risk, thus sheltering themselves from the failures of their gambles. When their endeavors become obsolete, they move their money elsewhere. They speculate on investments and loans and take profits purely on the basis that they can afford to hold and trade stock, without any regard to the effect that it has on the companies.

There is a better system than Capitalism, it's just that the Capitalists and THEIR GOVERNMENT puppets never allow for a fair hearing.


Mike Morin

[odegaard]

...
There is a better system than Capitalism, it's just that the Capitalists and THEIR GOVERNMENT puppets never allow for a fair hearing.


Mike Morin

If you're trying to say that capitalists have made attempts to influence government and therefore hijack the tax payer's money thanks for the lecture.
But unfortunately you're not telling me anything I don't already know.

Perhaps society should be more vigilant in holding their elected officials accountable and maybe this won't happen again?
In a Democracy people get what they deserve.

[odegaard]

Don't get me wrong here, yeah we need an all-knowing, benevolent dictator, but I ain't seen any yet, and don't believe those who claim to be such.

I'm totally with you on this one patience, I've lost count how many times somebody has gone on the internet to boldly proclaim that they have invented some new econ / political system which is superior to the current.

I'm quite sure they mean well but:
I keep on getting this silly idea in my head that if hypothetically such a person had control of their own army they wouldn't hesitate to threaten physical violence against those who do not agree with them.
What do you think, am I being paranoid or am I onto something here?

[Grautr]

Don't get me wrong here, yeah we need an all-knowing, benevolent dictator, but I ain't seen any yet, and don't believe those who claim to be such.

I'm totally with you on this one patience, I've lost count how many times somebody has gone on the internet to boldly proclaim that they have invented some new econ / political system which is superior to the current.

I'm quite sure they mean well but:
I keep on getting this silly idea in my head that if hypothetically such a person had control of their own army they wouldn't hesitate to threaten physical violence against those who do not agree with them.
What do you think, am I being paranoid or am I onto something here?

I also dont find the benevolent dictator scenario too wrong. Its a sytem that has worked throughout the world and history. Someone holding a long term or lifetime position in office can impliment long term plans to the benefit of the people. Democratic governments have to pander to the people and difficult long term plans are not implimented because of the need to be re elected.

Democracy is needed in a society as structured as ours to give a sense of choice and freedom (when in fact we dont have much of either).

Another concept that worked well in the past was the independent city state. Those that were unssuccesful failed. Others expanded and even colonized.

In Europe, England was the first country where commoners adopted second names. The reason for this was because the black death had killed so many that those that were left were needed for work. A local Lord who was not benevolent found his people just uped and left for greener pastures and another Lord who would look after them better. If we see the expected die off due to the ecological overshoot of the human population we might well see the rights and conditions of the survivors improving in a similar scenario.

[patience]

"pv is the simplest--what you do with the power is another issue."

Right on , dunewalker.
That was my point, that PV is not a panacea. It IS however, as you said, a very easy one to implement, especially for lighting, small radios, etc. History shows that. The first electricity use in the rural US was batteries for radios, then, Jacobs and other windmills to charge the batteries in areas where that would work. A lot of those farms also had windmills to pump water into livestock tanks.

Mike Morin said,
" No, you're jumping to conclusions. I am not a government agent and given a unified plan based on an explicit mission and principles, I would put my money towards such community betterment projects and programs. It is my intention to convince other private players to do similarly."

Sorry, yes I jumped to the conclusion. I still have reservations about how we find all the well-intentioned people to achieve this. Probably be a lot easier once they get hit in the head with the problem, when, of course, it is too late to do much good. There have been several threads here on how to preach PO to the unconverted, mostly ending in frustration. My personal conclusion is to lead by example, which is effective, but far too slow for the situation. Better than nothing, I guess.

I agree that it is the eleventh hour, or worse, and later on even more distasteful solutions will be offered, as history shows. That scares me. Of plan ideas, I have seen many, and a lot of them good, some not so good, but all were weak at the point of implementation. In fact, our discussion here of some sort of authority to force implementation is an admission of sorts that the well intentioned populace does not in fact exist in sufficient numbers to make serious changes. I don't have the answer, and haven't seen any yet, but I keep hoping.

odegaard,
"am I being paranoid or am I onto something here?" My thought is the old thing, "Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely". Human nature sucks in this aspect of it.

[Mike Morin]

All this talk about "benevolent dictator" misses the point.

What we need is benevolent direction.

Patience makes the point that people will not "get it" until it is too late. Is that not a self-fulfilling prophecy?

It is true in countries that at least profess and/or desire to be "economic democracies", that there is more continuity in leadership. That continuity in leadership exists in at least part due to a consensus among the people relative to what that leadership represents.

Allowing Obama to serve for the rest of his life, for example, would not extricate him, or us, from the dominance of the for-profit, acquisitiveness, standard of living, military and economic hegemonic Capitalist Dictaorship mindset that governs the resources of the United States and dominates the culture into a ravenous swarm of lemming consumers.

Obama's (or someone else's) "seeing the light" and becoming a benevolent consistent spokesman for the improvement of education in the United States to make "the world more cooperative" (as opposed to his claim for the need to make "the Nation more competitive" would not require that the man become a Dictator. As a matter of fact, any attempts to act like a Dictator will be summarily rejected by the people of the United States. Yet, we truely do need a world spokesman, one that can speak to national interests, in perspective, a continuing ministry of education that is radically different from the Capitalist propaganda machine under which we now suffer.

We need not only an economic paradigm shift so simply stated as "cooperation not competition", we also need an economic and cultural shift that fundamentally changes direction away from the National Highway Act of 1950, and away from one that places the automobile (a world annihilating super-nova) as central to the economy and culture.

We need a paradigm change around the issues of community, human needs, and community betterment including the desired principles of equity, inclusion, humanity, quality of life, peace, and SUSTAINABILITY (both economic and in relation to finite natural resources (e.g. peak oil)) and away from domination of of a self-serving, manipulating and dominating Capitalist minority.


Mike Morin

[patience]

I think I finally understand what you are saying, and I agree wholeheartedly. LEADERSHIP we need, in the benevolent direction! Maybe I am so cynical about the nature of our politicians, that the thought of a good one never entered my mind.

Given a REAL leader, to tell the ugly truth, we might have a chance. It would be a massive task to re-educate the entire society. I can hear it now:

(rant on)
"My fellow Americans, (dramatic pause), I come before you today with a heavy heart, to tell you that everything you were taught was worthwhile and important is just BS. All the media output is nonsense, and everything you learned in school besides the 3 R's was BS, too. Buying more stuff will NOT give you self esteem, nor a better social or sex life. No, buying more stuff will just make you deeper in debt. Conspicuous comsumption by massive use of credit is not "smart", it is in fact a sucker play, with you being the sucker. "

(Okay, sarcastic rant off.) YES! That all needs to permeate the American consciousness. Granted, I know a great leader can work wonders, particularly if there is an obvious issue, such as a war to fight, a race to the moon, or a nation to be supplied with electricity for the first time. I see this as much harder to do, because, as above, you are really going to have to tell people that they are completely wrong-headed, and that they were foolish enough to be suckered into getting where they are now.

It is obvious that you are working hard on this, and have given it much clear thought. I wish to God that it could happen. I have been talking to people for 35 years about this, and got few, if any, takers. I did all I could, including putting my job on the line, to convince managers at GM and other auto companies that we needed smaller, more practical vehicles, to no avail. (Those managers are now looking for work.)

I have tried to lead by example in a farming community, and can't get farmers to clean and paint equipment, which would save them money, and cost my repair shop a lot of business! Talk about bone-headed! Farmers are also into the "throwaway society", going deeper into debt each year to have shiny looking stuff--until last year. NOW, they are just as lost as a short dog in tall grass. Can't get more credit, and don't know what to do.

My wife wanted me to get her a Big Mac on my way home last week. I showed her a video of a 4 YEAR OLD McDonald's cheeseburger, that has not decayed in any way! (It was on a thread here at PO.) She watched it, but she wanted her greaseburger anyway... I guess I have the curse of Cassandra. Can't convince anyone of what is good for them.

I wish you all the luck in the world achieving what you have set out to do, but with my track record, I won't be a lot of help with the strategy.

edit to add--That's probably why I'm on this board, preaching to the choir, as it were, since they already believe.

[Mike Morin]

I'm not ready to give up! Not yet!

After spending about a week wallowing in doomsday depression and not finding adequate outlet for the eternal spirit of hope (Watched Crude Awakening, this week which was ugly, fuel for doom, but no great revelation), I've decided to try to resurrect my argument by trying to call world attention to the fluke that is the oil age, and call for all good people to rally others in whatever way they can to motivate the people of the planet to adjust.

The best part of Crude Awakening, other than showing what a filfthy business oil and fossil fuels are, the devestation of spent resource areas, and the information that almost all world oilfields are already in the decline of production, was the graph showing what a spike the fossil fuel age is, looking at a time (x) axis as short as 5,000 years.

Certainly, the children of the world would like to hope continuation of a quality of human life for at least the next 5,000 years! How can we let them down? How can we put our tails between our legs and wallow in doom?

What can we do positively? I've suggested reducing automobile use by 80% in the next twenty to forty years by rebuilding neighborhoods to be walkable and reallocating goods and services production and distribution accordingly. Let's not call it socialism, let's call it survival unity. It is benevolent direction. I will fight Dictatorship with every thing that I have, including the "dictates of the market".

Let's "hear" some positive ideas about how we can do this and/or other major programs to assure an equitable, inclusive, humane, quality of life, and sustainable future for the youth and children of the planet and thereafter.


Mike Morin

[Bas]

PARIS — The IEA upgraded its global oil demand forecasts on Thursday, pointing to improvements in the world economy but warning that recovery will be slow and could even die out next year.

The monthly report from the International Energy Agency came after ministers from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to hold oil output steady amid signs of recovery.

But OPEC also expressed "grave concern" about the scale of any recovery.

The IEA said it was revising up its forecasts for oil demand in 2009 and 2010 because of unexpectedly strong economic signals from China and the United States, two of the world's biggest energy consumers.

But it also said that oil demand in major developed economies remained far lower than last year and that the prospect of another wave of recession next year before an eventual stable recovery "cannot be entirely discounted."

The IEA, the energy and oil monitoring arm of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, had been more cautious in its previous two monthly reports about excessive optimism over global economic recovery.

Recent signs of the global economy stabilising following a historic slump however prompted the IEA to revise its oil demand forecasts up by nearly 0.5 million barrels of oil per day to 84.4 mbpd for 2009 and 85.7 mbpd for 2010.

more here

[Voice_du_More]

So somebody is going to have to pump more oil to make sure price stays in the approved range of $60 - $80, that should'nt be a problem.

[Bas]

Indeed that shouldn't be a problem for a while, as OPEC does have some spare capacity. How long this spare capacity will last is hard to say though and depends on the strenght of the economic recovery. If I were to guess I'd say 2 or 3 years before we've run out of spare capacity again, but prices might go up considerably before that...

Did anyone notice btw how remarkably stable the oilprices has been lately? for two or three months it's been around 70 dollars give or take 2 dollars. Never seen that before, almost makes me suspect someone big is rigging the market (maybe SA?)

[KevO]

oh oh

The historic drop in driving that began in 2007 and the dramatic decline in gridlock that accompanied it have ended, according to a report today by a firm that tracks congestion in the USA.
Using 12-month averages, the study found that driving increased by 0.3% in September, 0.2% in October, 0.3% in November and 0.2% in December over the same periods a year earlier, according to federal data.

Traffic congestion is still about two-thirds of 2007 peak levels but likely to get worse, says Rick Schuman, author of INRIX's 2009 National Traffic Scorecard. He cautions that further softening of the economy or a major hike in gas prices could cut congestion again. "As the job situation goes, so goes congestion," he says. "If we have a recovery and we start seeing employment starting to grow, congestion will grow along with it."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-02-23-congestion_N.htm

[mos6507]

Obama's best soundbite.

So much for peak demand.

[KevO]

Obama's best soundbite.

So much for peak demand.

nice vid.

I see a cliff

[TheDude]

Code: Select all

Obama on US oil addiction: We go from shock to trance

Huh, no January Traffic Volume Trends report. Usually they come out around the 22nd; maybe it was delayed due to SnoWWWIII?

Been posting about VMT for years now. Here's one attempt to take in the international situation: Early Warning: GDP/mile across countries

[TheDude]

I've wondered for a while if the uptick in driving might be due to 10 million+ unemployed tooling around dropping off resumes, too.

[oxj]

My traffic volume is certainly up.

Before the crash I could bike the eighteen miles to work each way. Now that I work 96 miles from home, when I have a little cash I stay at the motel.

It's not because I have so much money, it's because I'm struggling to survive. It's interesting that this struggle may cause the system to become momentarily inefficient, until those of us who struggle fail.