THE Oil Demand Thread (merged)

[Homesteader]

"Honestly folks, as soon as demand exceeds production we will increase production. . . "

[OilFinder2]

Just because vehicle miles traveled is starting to rise does not mean gasoline consumption is starting to rise.



All those Priuses and hybrid Escapes can start to add up, you know.

[AirlinePilot]

Just because vehicle miles traveled is starting to rise does not mean gasoline consumption is starting to rise.



All those Priuses and hybrid Escapes can start to add up, you know.

And how many Ta Ta nanos will it take to eat up all that gas only the rich people manage to slowly begin to save? Look at how many cars China will buy in just the next few years.

Your chart has to include the reference that since 2007 we have been engaged in the worst US recession since GD1. All in context my good man, all in context!

[OilFinder2]

And how many Ta Ta nanos will it take to eat up all that gas only the rich people manage to slowly begin to save? Look at how many cars China will buy in just the next few years.

Ummm, the title of this thread is "U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise." Last time I looked, people in China and India don't comsume the oil being burned in the gas tanks of American drivers.

[TheDude]

The Escape gets 35.47% or 29.05% better mileage than a typical SUV, depending on whether it's 2WD or 4WD. Hybrids are .6-.7% of the US vehicle fleet so their impact to date is pretty marginal. The peak of gasoline supplied was for the week of Aug 17, 2007, at 9,762 kb/d; Feb 19th 2010 was 92.8% of that value.

On a monthly averaged basis June 1978 was the local peak for its era at 7913 kb/d; with rising gasoline prices product supplied dropped sharply to 6662 kb/d in October 1980, 29 months later, at 84.19% of the peak value. This was far ahead of the recession which began in Q4 1980. The latest monthly peak was July '07, 9640 kb/d; 29 months later in Nov '09 it was 8871 kb/d, 92.02% of that peak, so your contention that efficiency is driving the decline this time isn't sufficiently explanatory. CAFE regulations had their strongest impact in the late 70s/early 80s, 78-80 mandated gains were 5.26%/5.00%/9.09%, for a smaller population and vehicle fleet. Stronger efficiency mandates begin next year. VMT shift in the late 70s was barely perceptible despite a drop in vehicle sales.

[AirlinePilot]

And how many Ta Ta nanos will it take to eat up all that gas only the rich people manage to slowly begin to save? Look at how many cars China will buy in just the next few years.

Ummm, the title of this thread is "U.S. driving decline is in reverse - oil demand to rise." Last time I looked, people in China and India don't comsume the oil being burned in the gas tanks of American drivers.

And I agree OF but Im just remarking that we can do anything we want here in the US but the global picture is still important. I see far too much emphassis placed on what we do here in the US and its like we are in a vacuum or something. We may get a bit more efficient here but that slack in global usage created will get used up somehwere else quite quickly. That is all Im saying. A lot of folks seem to just shut out that larger picture, it's important.

[OilFinder2]

One other thing that should be taken into account - the article which opened this thread said that vehicle miles driven in September-December rose compared to a year earlier (which would be Sept-Dec 2008).

However, recall that the 2 hurricanes which hit the southeast in the fall of 2008 restricted gasoline supplies for a while, and thus restricted driving. So, the year-earlier period which these stats are being compared to wasn't quite a "normal" year-earlier period.

IMO we should wait until the spring before making any judgments. Even the winter storms in the Northeast and Midwest we've been seeing the past month or two could have some impact on miles driven for this year, it would seem.