Through 2050, the North Slope could yield up to 36 billion barrels of oil and 137 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under optimistic assumptions, the Energy Department said.
That would be enough to meet current U.S. oil demand for about five years and natural gas for a year and a half, but some major obstacles stand in the way of hitting those goals.
Per the Reuters article above.
The following is from the actual report, cited by the article:
In the short term, 2005 to 2015, exploration efforts are forecast to result in the addition of about 2.9 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil and 12 trillion cubic feet of economically recoverable gas.
(snip)
In summary the potential for additional reserves growth from currently producing fields is 5.0 to 6.0 BBO (3.0 to 4.0 BBO from the viscous, heavy oil fields and 2.0 BBO from the conventional oil fields) with the great bulk of this production post-2015.
2-151
In the long term, 2015 to 2050, exploration success and development is expected to involve activities in all five sub-provinces under the optimistic assumptions and is estimated to total 28 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil and 125 trillion cubic feet of economically recoverable gas.
At the $50/bbl and $60/bbl price tracks all projects at 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% discount rates are economic.
section 3-127
Development of these fields should provide production rates of about 900,000 BOPD until about 2015.
3-154
The investment required by industry to achieve the forecast production is estimated to be over $15 billion dollars (then current dollars). This does not include the cost for construction of the AGP system. The operating expenses are estimated to be about $90 billion (then current dollars).
3-155
The largest potential reserves growth will probably occur in the viscous, heavy oil fields. The current estimate of economically recoverable reserves is between 1.155 and1.630 BBO (Table 2.7).
The Full 479 page report
This is actually a pretty interesting report. The report was "issued" last August, no telling why it was "announced" Jan 29, which is the dateline on the Reuters article. Part of the project is to rework existing holes, some new development contingent on the construction of the new pipeline, and most is outside of ANWR.
They give pool-by-pool production estimates and decline curves, for those who wish to see what a real decline curve looks like. A lot of this work is to slow the decline of current projects.
There is some detailed financial analysis on a lot of the individual projects, and at current pricing, most are viable at current discount/interest rates. This suggests a fundamental assumption that hyperinflation will not hit, which makes me feel a lot better.
Some of the volume is derived from the famed "reserves growth" assumptions, based on previous experience in the area, and are also contingent on certain economic conditions. There is some conversation to this effect on page 2-150 which says the original Prudhoe URR was about 12 gb, and it grew to 19 or so through the life of the project.
Anyhow, the impression that there is some huge, previously unknown oilfield out there, and that there is an immense flood of new oil imminently ready to be pumped is not supported by the actual report. A lot of the volume in the short term is arrived at the hard way, by smaller fields and slowing the decline of current fields, and amounts to less than 1 mbpd if, and it's a big if, the operators choose to do the projects, versus some other more interesting investments that they may have elsewhere.
