[Rune]

It's the Sun, stupid

That previous youtube link was bad. And the man's English isn't the best for a presentation. But he covered a few of the same topics that were covered much better in the book.

[Keith_McClary]

MailOnline

Rather off-topic.

The article cherry picks and puts a spin on what Lovelock says.

The "Mail" is like a supermarket tabloid;
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

More recent articles:
http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/cul ... ll-seasons

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e7a670c8-0ffd ... z2jjhWNl7i

[Keith_McClary]

And I am half-way through another The Neglected Sun which is very good.

Try to notice if they actually have a quantitative theory that is testable. That would be interesting.

[rollin]

The level of energies involved in solar output variability are more than an order of magnitude smaller than the radiative changes due to increases in greenhouse gases in earth's atmosphere. The average change in solar output is near zero. Total peak to peak variation in solar output over the last forty years is less than 0.1%. Overall change is near zero.

What has changed is the amount of radiation reaching the surface, due to SOx and NOx pollution. Still this unintended geo-engineering is less than the effects of GHG.

[Rune]

I wish I could highlight and copy more The Neglected Sun for everyone here, but I have reached my 10% limit on Kindle highlights. And I can'lt copy from my computer, of course.

It's very, very good. It's the kind of book one could actually study for some time because there are so many references to published scientific papers.

The author will discuss the last 1,000 years, for example, discussing the solar maximums and solar minimums (multiple cycle lengths with different scientific names) and then correlate those cycles with evidence from papers measuring climate through ice core samples or ion ratio samples of sedimentary material - any of the wide variety of papers which have studied past climate, temperature or whatever. Hundreds of papers.

Then the author will examine the last 10,000 years, then the last 15,000 years, and then greater lengths of time and do the same thing - correlate them with measurements that have been obtained from a very large number of published papers.

The references are of high quality - journals like Nature or Geoscience Journals and the like.

The IPCC is mentioned throughout, their methods either corroborated or criticized. Weaknesses in the IPCC methods are exhibited in a straight-forward way.

There are plenty of charts and graphs.

I mean it when I say this book is a must-read for anyone interested in environment or global warming or cooling. You can really increase your knowledge with this book. I am very impressed with it.

The author fully addresses the common objection that the Sun only varies by 0.1% and is so constant that it can be ignored. Let me tell you - that objection is very well-handled and not only once, but throughout the book.

Easily, this could be one of the best books you will ever read as someone who is concerned about energy or environment or about policy or simply in being knowledgeable about Earth's climate. It's a fascinating subject. This book could allow someone to absorb themselves in the subject for quite a long time.

I'm not trying to win a debate or change anyone's mind. I am simply telling you all that this is one very, effing awesome piece of work. Every bit worth the $9 I paid for my Kindle version.

[dorlomin]

I wish I could highlight and copy more The Neglected Sun for everyone here, but I have reached my 10% limit on Kindle highlights.

No thanks its just junk science for the gullible and the stupid.

[Keith_McClary]

The author fully addresses the common objection that the Sun only varies by 0.1% and is so constant that it can be ignored. Let me tell you - that objection is very well-handled and not only once, but throughout the book.

So tell us - how do they fully address and well-handle that?

[Rune]

I'm telling ya, it's a great book. No wonder it was such a bestseller in Germany!

Look, I posted the full Preface and Chapter 1.

That should be good enough for you to get an idea. It's only $9 and worth every penny.

It cannot possibly be junk science because of all the very many references to published scientific papers which themselves identify cyclical patterns from sediment cores, diatom abundance, isotope ratios, etc.

The book first explains the already known and identified solar cycles and then correlates the shorter ones to the period we are now living in and correlates the longer ones to periods of longer time.

The authors did no make up the solar cycles they talk about; they did not perform the research themselves of the hundreds of papers they reference to make their case. They simply show the solar correlation or explain what parts of the picture are missing.

In the course of the explanation, they talk about the IPCC and what it has done when confronted with the same information.

This book is first-rate. It belongs on your bookshelf if you have any interest at all in Earth climate dynamics.

[dorlomin]

It cannot possibly be junk science because of all the very many references to published scientific papers which themselves identify cyclical patterns from sediment cores, diatom abundance, isotope ratios, etc.

From a guy who does not understand how Milankovitch Forcing works, who tried to dispute it... now apparently a book must be true because it has some references in it.

Infallible logic there. Creationist books are full of references to published scientific papers. Therefore creationism must be true.

[dorlomin]

This book is first-rate. It belongs on your bookshelf if you have any interest at all in Earth climate dynamics.

Buy some real text books, first on physics, then mathematics then introductions to climate science.

When you have done the work to build a foundation from which you can understand how the earth works, then start reading your fairy tales and see if they still sound as compelling.

[Rune]

This book made a big splash in Europe.

To be completely honest, I already knew you guys were willfully ignorant before I posted anything about it. The doomers at PO.com always have been. That's why it's so much fun f****ng with them.

I'm sure we have not heard the last about solar cycles and the IPCC's claims about the benign and constant Sun.

...and, yes, the authors talk about Milankovitch Cycles. But buy a copy yourself. I can't be bothered to post any more than I already have for a bunch of totally willfull ignoramuses.

[Keith_McClary]

Reminds me of the time I asked a Christian fundie about his beliefs. He could not explain anything. He said I should go to Bible School or listen to the TV Preacher and all would be revealed.

[Keith_McClary]

It cannot possibly be junk science because of all the very many references to published scientific papers

Does it have more references than the IPCC?

[dorlomin]

This book made a big splash in Europe.

No it barely dented the public here.

To be completely honest, I already knew you guys were willfully ignorant

Willfully ignorant of what exactly? You have not posted any arguments, just "OMG this books is awesome".

before I posted anything about it.

You had not read the book before you posted anything about it and claim you paid no attention to the climate debate.

Now you claim prescience to have known the book would be great and we would reject it.

The doomers at PO.com always have been.

Who is a doomer.

That's why it's so much fun f****ng with them.

In what way? "OMG this book is awesome but I dont understand it" is screwing with us is it?

I'm sure we have not heard the last about solar cycles and the IPCC's claims about the benign and constant Sun.

Like cold fusion and AI singularities.

...and, yes, the authors talk about Milankovitch Cycles.

No. I am talking about you and the statements you were making last week.

But buy a copy yourself.

If there is anything of value, it will appear in the science literature.

I can't be bothered to post any more than I already have for a bunch of totally willfull ignoramuses.

Thanks, the cut and pastes were pretty woeful.

[Rune]

It cannot possibly be junk science because of all the very many references to published scientific papers

Does it have more references than the IPCC?

The whole book is just jammed full of refeences to climate science papers which have been published in journals.

If you buy the book, it would be better to buy the kindle version so you can just hit the reference link and see what the title of the paper(s) are referenced.

The author, like I said, worked for the IPCC and was a true-blue believer in the IPCCs methods and assumptions. But when he and his co-author got into the weeds of the IPCCs main assumption - that the Sun is so constant that it can be ignored - he found that assumption to be flawed in the extreme.

I expect that we will be hearing a lot more about this because the book is simply so well written and referenced by just so many independent studies.

Look, I said at the beginning of the thread, that I had not been involved in the global warming discussions and did not consider myself to be an expert on the subject. What I know of global warming science is what someone would know if they had read the articles posted here on PO.com over the years.

But I can certainly tell a well-written science book with plenty of references when I see one. that doesn'lt take any brains or specific education.

it is probably because I do not have any dog in the fight over global warming that makes me unafraid and simply curious to look at something like a global cooling argument or a refutation of IPCC assumptions. Someone who has vociferously argued that GW will fry us all this century and who has said so innumerable times, might be chagrined to find their favorite thesis sullied by a new book.

But, really, there is no fear involved with reading. And I certainly would not steer you wrong in your spending $9 to have a look at "The Neglected Sun".

I hardly ever give such glowing recommendations on books like I am with this one. For example, I might wsay that "Don't Sell Your Coat" was a good book. But I would never gush over it like i am gushing over this book.

And I am backed up by the German people! Germany has gone down the renewable energies path like no other country. And this author, Vahrenholt, has been at the forefront of that embarkation since the late 70s. He is eminently qualified to write about the subject and make a clear case to his own countrymen.

I'm telling ya, man. "The Neglected Sun" is very much worth reading.

[John_A]

I wish I could highlight and copy more The Neglected Sun for everyone here, but I have reached my 10% limit on Kindle highlights.

No thanks its just junk science for the gullible and the stupid.

And you think you have the right to call others troll? Hypocrite.

[Strummer]

And this author, Vahrenholt, has been at the forefront of that embarkation since the late 70s. He is eminently qualified to write about the subject and make a clear case to his own countrymen.

Now you're just lying. Vahrenholt's (former?) employer, the RWE corporation, is the most "backwards" energy company in Germany, and the one whose business is most threatened by the Energiewende. RWE is crashing down hard, and these books are simply propaganda written on its behalf trying to save its outdated business model from the democratization and progress of the Energiewende.

Here are som real articles on the book from Germany, you can run them through Google translate:

http://www.zeit.de/2012/05/RWE-Vahrenho ... ettansicht

http://www.zeit.de/2012/07/Klimawandel- ... ettansicht

[Rune]

It's only $9 and you can judge the book for yourself.

I posted the full Preface and Chapter 1 to give you a heads up.

the book raised all kinds of hackles throughtout Germany and then was later accepted by many. I am not surprised qt all that it was attacked, just like I am being attacked for aslerting readers of PO.com to it.

Helmut Kohl, for example. Groups in Britian, France, The Netherlands... Universities, etc. came around and have listened to Vahrenholt'ls message. It was a bestseller in Germany for 3 weeks. It got a lot of press both negative and positive - as one would expect.

If it were not so highly referenced and thorough, I would not promote it so much. But it so obviously is a worthwhile read (and study!).

Willfull ignorance gets you nowhere. For the cost of a cheap meal, you can learn a great deal from "The Neglected Sun". And even if you choose to go along with theIPCC, you will be armed with excellent information about what is now a meaningful rift and controversy in the GW arena.

this book just came out this month in English. Read some of the reviews at Amazon or elsewhere. I am sure this book will make an important impact. I shit you not.

[dorlomin]

And you think you have the right to call others troll? Hypocrite.

You have been caught using sockpuppets and pretty much admitted using a variety of log ins to evade the moderation team. Its not my opinions, it is a matter of fact.
Compare being dismissive over a book most scientists in the field are dismissive about

No thanks its just junk science for the gullible and the stupid.

with

To be completely honest, I already knew you guys were willfully ignorant before I posted anything about it. The doomers at PO.com always have been. That's why it's so much fun f****ng with them

That.

[dorlomin]

I can't be bothered to post any more than I already have for a bunch of totally willfull ignoramuses.

I hardly ever give such glowing recommendations on books like I am with this one.

It's only $9 and you can judge the book for yourself.

I posted the full Preface and Chapter 1 to give you a heads up.

You have jumped from not being bothered to be openly evangelical again.