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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby dashster » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 01:28:26

Yoshua wrote:US conventional nat gas peaked in 2008. US coal peaked in 2008. Shale gas accounts for two thirds of US gas production today.


According to figures at the EIA
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm

marketed conventional US natural gas production peaked in in the early 1970's.
2008 had total production (potentially including shale) of 21,112,053, while the early 1970's had [21,920,642; 22,493,012; 22,531,698; 22,647,549; 21,600,522] of conventional natural gas production from 1970 to 1974.

The EIA data also shows that conventional plus shale gas production hit a monthly high in July 2015 and a yearly high in 2015. The front page currently has an article saying that the EIA is predicting that coal will go from 30.4% of 2016 US electricity production to 31.3% in 2017 and that natural gas will go from 33.8% to 31.1%. The article blames the change on rising natural gas prices. So it will be more than interesting to see if the 2015 peak can be exceeded, that is, see whether or not the shale bubble has burst as predicted by David Hughes for the Post Carbon Institute.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 10:55:08

"...conventional US natural gas production peaked in in the early 1970's." Actually that chart doesn't appear to distinguish conventional NG production from unconventional reservoirs. Granted there's been a recent boom in unconventional production the Rockman was drilling and frac'ng unconventional reservoirs in the 1970's. Others were doing so in the 1950's. But though the data isn't available the vast majority of NG production, until recently, has been from conventional reservoirs.

Given the Marcellus Shale has been the primary source of the recent NG boom tracking it might be the best predictor. According to EIA the NG rig count in the MS shale has doubled in the last year (and still increasing slowly) but is still less then half of where it peaked in 2012.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby dashster » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 11:34:32

ROCKMAN wrote:"...conventional US natural gas production peaked in in the early 1970's." Actually that chart doesn't appear to distinguish conventional NG production from unconventional reservoirs. Granted there's been a recent boom in unconventional production the Rockman was drilling and frac'ng unconventional reservoirs in the 1970's. Others were doing so in the 1950's. But though the data isn't available the vast majority of NG production, until recently, has been from conventional reservoirs.

Given the Marcellus Shale has been the primary source of the recent NG boom tracking it might be the best predictor. According to EIA the NG rig count in the MS shale has doubled in the last year (and still increasing slowly) but is still less then half of where it peaked in 2012.


If we assume that fracking gas wasn't as significant back then, then the higher numbers in the 1970's included a higher percentage of conventional natural gas so that would be the peak. If we don't assume that, I don't know what would make conventional natural gas high in the 1970's, then decline, only to hit a peak in 2008 (if a true claim). Why would they find and/or produce more conventional natural gas three decades later?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 16:21:55

Didn't say production of NG from conventional reservoirs didn't peak some years ago...just don't have data to establish an exact date. But did point out that much of the current production is coming from the unconventional Marcellus Shale formation.

Just not exactly sure of the distinction. Many of the MS wells have been more economical ventures then many of the conventional completions over the last few decades. Especially those completed offshore in the GOM. As pointed out many times when the Rockman's new company began about 8 years ago we spent $240 million (just our share) drilling deep conventional reservoirs in S Louisiana. And the NG prices fell below $5/MCF about 5 years ago and we have a drilled such well a well in the last 5 years. Meanwhile the MS has been picking up the slack nationally at the lower price.
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