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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 25 May 2017, 11:44:52

Art Berman's latest article has a graph that shows US conventional nat gas declining by 3.2 bcf/d annually. With that decline rate the conventional nat gas production will fall to zero by 2025 and the US will then be entirely dependent on shale gas.

Art Berman believes that shale gas will peak and start to decline within the coming years, if true then the US is heading for the rocks. The Financial Crisis of 2008 might just have been a warning of what is about to come.

There, some doom porn. Peak gas is after all just fake news.

US conventional nat gas peaked in 2008. US coal peaked in 2008. Shale gas accounts for two thirds of US gas production today.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 12:50:18

Speaking of peaking NG from the shales the production in PA may be at or close to that point. And it has nothing to do with geology. Right now it's all about politics...but not in PA...in the state of New York.

Severe shortages of pipeline capacity to move NG to end users

One critical expansion would be the Constitution Pipeline designed to haul PA shale production to New York. New York which is the largest consumer of the fuel oil (aka diesel) burned in the NE. The NE where 85% (3.5 BILLION gallons/year) of all such consumption in the nation occurs.

Current NY citygate NG price is $10/mcf. Compare that to the peak price of $25/mcf occurring not that long ago in 2008. But, at the moment, the governor doesn't appear very interested in securing more long term (and potentially cheaper) NG supplies:

"Constitution Committed to Building Federally Approved Pipeline

Despite the New York Department of Environmental Conservation’s unprecedented decision {to deny permits} on April 22, 2016, Constitution Pipeline’s sponsors remain committed to building this energy infrastructure project, which will create an important connection between consumers and reliable supplies."

What some in NY are saying:

Wall Street Journal: “Behold Mr. Cuomo’s economic growth strategy: Destroy private high-paying energy and manufacturing jobs. Then create government programs that soak state taxpayers to compensate the victims and subsidize his politically favored industries.”

NY Post: “Is Gov. Cuomo trying to kill the upstate economy — or is he just so desperate to suck up to enviro-nuts that he doesn’t care what happens to that region?”

Mayor of Sydney, NY: “I’m very disappointed. It would have been a boost for us economically. Norwich, Oneonta and Walton all have gas. This would have helped our village residents, it would have helped Amphenol and it would have helped our schools.”

Maybe Governor Cuomo has a plan to import LNG is supplies run short during a cold snap when pipeline NG can't meet demand. That's what a Boston utility had to do in w past winter. Hmm, on second thought...from Oct 2015:

"Gov. Andrew Cuomo yesterday effectively killed a proposal to build an LNG import terminal off the coasts of Sandy Hook and Long Beach, NY. By vetoing the $600 million proposal by Liberty Natural Gas to develop an LNG import facility 28 miles off Sandy Hook and 18 miles off Long Island, the Democratic governor handed a huge victory to environmentalists, fishermen, and others who fought the proposal over the past seven years."

I wonder how many of those "environmentalists, fishermen, and others" burn fuel oil in there homes? But don't read the Rockman wrong: he and the rest of us here in Texas fully support the governor's actions: anything that can allow us to sell our NG to NY consumers at a higher price is great. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 May 2017, 15:27:50

Yoshua wrote:Art Berman's latest article has a graph that shows US conventional nat gas declining by 3.2 bcf/d annually. With that decline rate the conventional nat gas production will fall to zero by 2025 and the US will then be entirely dependent on shale gas.


Art Berman doesn't know what "conventional" gas is any more than he knows about the economics of light tight oil.

Yoshua wrote:Art Berman believes that shale gas will peak and start to decline within the coming years, if true then the US is heading for the rocks. The Financial Crisis of 2008 might just have been a warning of what is about to come.


Art Berman is a peak oiler who doesn't know what the minimum OpX is on a Barnett well, and has already claimed that the US was headed for crisis 6 years ago...right in the middle of some of the fastest growing oil and gas production in the countries history.

How is this for an idea...find someone who hasn't gotten it wrong about every time they proclaimed a disaster or peak or whatnot, and use them for a source? Lest people decide that you can't even bothered to pick one worth paying any attention whatsoever to.

Yoshua wrote:There, some doom porn. Peak gas is after all just fake news.


Well, it has been the other times Art was involved, do you have any REAL reference that can explain it, rather than just those who always get it wrong?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 21:18:09

yoshua - There's a great deal of NG (conventional and unconventional) left to develop in the US. But not so much at the current price. In fact, I'm surprised we've done as well as we have with the Marcellus Shale during this relatively low price period.

When the Rockman started his current company almost 8 years ago we spent $230 million drilling for deep NG in S Louisiana. But when prices fell be low $5/MCF we dropped the NG program. And don't mean we cut back: we have drilled one NG prospect since.

Look at the NG price history:

https://inflationdata.com/articles/infl ... as-prices/

Starting around 2004 we went thru an unusually high price period. And now that has ended. But look at the many years prior to the price boom when prices were as low or lower then they are now. And the US economy (and much of the world's economy) is becoming more dependent on NG. It seems obvious that prices will increase significantly in the future.

When it does many tens of thousands of currently uneconomical NG wells will be drilled.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 25 May 2017, 21:52:39

Rock
In so many ways the natgas pipeline situation in New York and New England is both heartbreaking and infuriating.
That quote above about Amphenol refers to one of the Bigger private sector employers in that part of the state. Another, Raymond, is a large fork lift manufacturer.
They, like all commercial and residential customers would benefit ENORMOUSLY to have gas heat through their cold winters.
A dinky 100 mile pipeline Northern Access, carrying 450 dekatherm from northwest PA to Buffalo was denied NYS permit.
Absolutely criminal.
The owner, utility giant National Fuel Gas, has 3/4 million customers up there and runs Seneca Resources, their upstream operator.
The completely unnecessary economic devastation being wrought in these regions is still in the early stages as the next winter time cold snaps will highlight for all to witness.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 22:11:45

Coffee - As long NG prices stay low he'll probably keep getting his. And then when prices eventually boom folks will bitch but the lead time won't help them very much.

And great logic for killing the LNG import terminal: about 40 years ago one blew up in NY and killed 40. I wonder how many have been killed by taxis in NYC over the last 4 decades? And how much more CO2 was emitted over that time by burning fuel oil instead of NG?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 11:44:11

Hate to toot my own horn, but another month and another revision down to the projected increase -- 0.4 bcf difference month-on-month. So 2017-2018 combined increase is 0.8 bcf less than two months ago.

CHK's current liabilities are greater than their current assets on the balance sheet. They owe more than they are worth. Yep, we are not going to drill our way of this, the shale boom is over but nobody seems to realize it.

Current projection is:
U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.0 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This forecast increase would reverse a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.3 Bcf/d above the 2017 level.



https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to rise by an average of 4.1 Bcf/d from the 2017 level.


U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 74.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.2 Bcf/d more than the 2017 level.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 17:12:09

Ohio just released 1st quarter 2017 Utica results.
87 wells produced over 1 Bcf with 33 of those above 1.4 Bcf.
Expressed in oil terms of energy equivalence, 1.4 Bcf is almost a quarter million barrels of oil ... in three months.
Most prodigious producer flowed over 2.2 Bcf in 90 days ... a flow rate of 25 MMcfd.

There is an almost unfathomable amount of gas in the Appalachian Basin.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 13:54:56

.
The US Senate has tabled a set of sanctions against Russia and propose to make them federal laws
it seems to aim to cripple Russia gas exports to the EU ,
in particular arctic exploration and the building of North Stream 2
but can also be applied to any mineral extraction .

Frau Merkel is not amused
From the BBC
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40299760
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:20:56

Pennsylvania just released April production numbers.

New monthly record, as far as I know, was set by Cabot's T Kropa 10.
It produced over 1.3 Bcf for April, a daily flow rate of 43,375 MMcfd.
At 1.54 Bcf cum over 5 weeks, it is actually surpassed by the 1.86 Bcf produced by sister well Kropa 8, online 51 days.
The 5 wells recently turned in line on this pad have cumulatively produced over 6 Bcf in 7 weeks time.

This is simply an astonishing amount of gas.
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