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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 11 May 2017, 09:10:16

GoghGoner wrote:Latest STEO forecast. They have revised 2017 up 0.4 bcf/d and 2018 down 0.9 bcf/d bringing total supply 0.5 bcf/d lower than their February forecast.

So a total increase in the next two years of 5 bcf/d forecast by the EIA. Marcellus rigs fell by 3 last week after rising to 46 rigs active previously. NG prices are much stronger this year than last but no where close to supporting an increase of 5 bcf/d, IMO.


https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to rise by an average of 4.1 Bcf/d from the 2017 level.


U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 74.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.2 Bcf/d more than the 2017 level.



At this point I am convinced the fracked natural gas is actually a lot cheaper to get than I was lead to believe back in 2008. Sure some companies went bust, even major companies. On the other hand the last few standing are producing all they can sell at a price that is not leading to their bankruptcy and is even making it possible to sell LNG as exports to Europe and Asia.

In my opinion this is making Natural Gas the fossil fuel of choice. On an energy for price basis Coal is still cheaper, but it comes with a suite of social baggage that can be a PR problem for utility companies. Oil is great because it is liquid with an excellent chemical energy density per volume, but as we all know there is a limited world capacity for light sweet crude or we would have never started burning the Bitumen from the 'tar sands' and the extra heavy VZ oil would be strictly used for asphalting roads and parking lots, not upgrading and burning.

Natural gas, if it is cheap and abundant enough, is a direct substitute for coal in modified power plants and in brand new high efficiency combined cycle steam and gas turbine plants. I have also posted a dozen or more stories over the years about municipal fleets like buses and refuse trucks being converted to run on natural gas in cities scattered all over the USA/Canada and the fact that for several decades natural gas fueled cars were as common in countries like Iran as are petroleum fueled cars. Compressed natural gas doesn't have the same energy density of liquid petroleum products, but even at today's lower price it is competitive and at 2014 prices it was about half the cost. Long distance trips require planning because filling stations are still not all that common, but for a personal commuter car with home filling they are great.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 11 May 2017, 11:36:23

Tanada

Eggzacklee.
Lottsa natgas that, with the physical flow properties in mind, will more and more assert economic superiority to unconventional oil development.
Much tougher to get a viscuous fluid to flow sideways two miles then vertically for one or two. That, for 30 years or so.

Gas flows.

On the downstream side, the Adsorbed Natural Gas breakthroughs should manifest in the marketplace within 5 years time.
At that point, it'll truly usher in the Age of Gas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 11 May 2017, 12:48:58

T T - Over my 41 years I've seen more then a few companies go belly up and in not a single case was the price of oil/NG the primary cause. Hell, I know of 2 groups that lost their asses in the Eagle Ford when oil was $90+/bbl.

As mentioned many times the best ROR I ever generated was in the mid 80's after NG dropped from $2.60/mcf to the $0.90/mcf I sold for in my shallow play in Texas. Thanks to the price bust that led to a drilling bust I got the cost of the 23 wells down to a rediculously low level. The production I sold for $0.90/mcf cost me a total of $0.12/mcf to develop: better then 6 to 1. Kiss my hairy ass, Chesapeake. LOL.

And I'll say it again: historically as the price of oilNG increases profit margins for exploration companies decline, dry holes increase and bankruptcies eventually increase. Especially true when that increase happens very quickly: the sheep come running begging us to take their money. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Thu 11 May 2017, 21:41:09

.
the future does looks good for Natural gas , it's becoming the fastest growing source of energy
there is now a world gas market and two valid delivery system , pipes and liquid

there also more and more resources as exploration go deeper and hotter into the gas envelop
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 11 May 2017, 21:56:25

" ... deeper and hotter into the gas envelope".

In a few months' time, EQT should have drilled and completed another Deep Utica well, this one in Armstrong county, northeast of Pittsburgh.
Consol's highly successful Utica well, the Gaut, is located just south in Westmorland county.
As EQT now recognizes the necessity of using ceramic proppant at these depths, a successful Armstrong county Utica will continue to dramatically expand the productive footprint of the Utica.
As prodigious as the top Marcellus wells are, the Deep Utica wells are way better.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 14 May 2017, 13:53:15

FWI: Largest NG pipeline under construction today will open up the Marcellus/Utica market. The state regulators were recently pissed of when a lot of drilling mud (99% water and clay) accidently spilled into a wetlands area. Pissed off but not enough to order a halt to the pipeline construction. Interesting that some of "our gas" will end up being burned by Canadians...just how some of "our gas" is being burned by Mexicans. LOL:

"Rover Pipeline LLC is a new interstate natural gas pipeline that is designed to transport 3.25 Bcf/day of NG to markets in the Midwest, Northeast, East Coast, Gulf Coast and Canada. The project received a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity from FERC in February. Construction has begun with targeted in-service goals of July 2017 for Phase I and November 2017 for Phase II. Rover Pipeline will have direct deliveries in Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, and into the Dawn Hub in Ontario, Canada. This will provide a broader network of distribution points back into the U.S., Northeast and Canadian market.

The approximate $4.2 billion pipeline will gather gas from processing plants in West Virginia, Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania for delivery to the Midwest Hub near Defiance, Ohio, where about 68% of the gas will be delivered via interconnects with existing pipelines in Ohio and West Virginia for distribution to markets across the U.S. The remaining 32% of the natural gas will be delivered to markets in Michigan through an interconnect in Livingston County, Michigan, with the existing Vector Pipeline, which has established delivery points to local distribution companies and the vast Michigan storage fields throughout the state. Additionally, Vector will transport natural gas that is not delivered to Michigan markets on to the Dawn Hub in Ontario, Canada."
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 14 May 2017, 14:07:32

And speaking of opening up the Marcellus Shale market: President Trump may soon the telling the NY NIMBYites to kiss his ass just as he did other regarding the Dakota Access Pipe Line:

Reuters - A year after New York rejected a key certificate for the $925 million Constitution natural gas pipeline, developer Williams Cos. is appealing to a higher authority: the White House. Williams and labor unions are pressing President Donald Trump’s administration for a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers permit after the state refused to certify the project, The pipeline would link supplies from the Marcellus Shale to markets in the Northeast. Williams is doubling down on the Marcellus Shale where supplies have outpaced new pipeline capacity.

The Constitution delays “have not been a regulatory issue,” Armstrong said. “The issue has been purely political. That’s exactly when, for interstate commerce, the federal government should use their authority.” He declined to identify any Trump administration officials who are involved in the talks. President Trump was instrumental in clearing the way for Dakota Access oil pipeline to be finished. In March, TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL crude pipeline gained U.S. approval after Trump invited the pipeline builder to reapply for a presidential permit. Although New York has not issued a water-quality certificate for the Constitution pipeline, the Army Corps can issue its own permit if the state doesn’t act within a “reasonable” time period.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 14 May 2017, 14:33:04

And speaking of job growth for Americans related to NG infrastructure growth here are 15 jobs that didn't count. Interesting that instead of deportation potential prison time is being presented:

"Fifteen undocumented immigrants contracted to work at America’s NG exporting terminal run by Cheniere Energy have been arrested. The Justice Department said the 15 people arrested falsified documents to get jobs over the past three years at the LNG complex that Cheniere’s expanding. They were working for Bechtel Corp. The arrests come just as the Trump administration has begun touting LNG export terminals as U.S. job creators.

The workers were all hired by subcontractors that used offices in Port Arthur, Texas, to process applications, interview and verify employees, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said in its statement. Some of those arrested last week had returned to the U.S. after previous encounters with immigration authorities. If convicted, defendants could face up to five years in federal prison.

Cheniere estimated in a presentation last month that building liquefaction plants at its Louisiana and Texas terminals would take 78 million construction man-hours, representing about $7 billion in wages. At its peak, employment will reach around 7,500 people."
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 14 May 2017, 14:36:41

Rock
A lot of drama regarding northeast pipelines ...
The drilling mud spilled from the Rover directional work may have been partially due to the shallow targets of this work as they are going under some swampland there.
The stoppage of new directional drilling will affect 8 of the 30 drilling locations since 22 have already started or are completed.
This drilling is for short distances primarily beneath waterways where trenching is not feasible.

Surprisingly, to me, the in service date of Phase 1 - 2.8 Bcfd capacity to Defiance - is supposedly still on track, according to the company. That is still early July, couple of weeks away.

Pipeline to Defiance is actually dual 42 inchers. Big.

Not mentioned in your post is the especially egregious denial of a NY DEC permit for the Northern Access pipeline to the Buffalo, NY area. A dinky 100 mile long pipe bringing much needed gas (450 MMcfd) to that cold part of the state.

The builder, NFG, is the biggest utility in that part of the state with 3 quarter million customers.
Shithead crook governor, Cuomo, is positioning to have feds take back authority from state and authorize build out so he can cry to hypocritical greens (his base) that Big Bad feds 'did it', so don't blame him.

Hypocrisy of the highest order and many people are fed up.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 16 May 2017, 16:00:10

I might assume something was lost in the translation of the manifesto but since it was written in English that wouldn't explain the obvious contradictions. Such as preventing onshore oil patch jobs to preserve offshore oil patch jobs? And offshore fossil fuel production good...onshore fossil fuel production bad?

The UK Labour party has pledged to safeguard the offshore oil and gas industry and ban fracking in its 2017 manifesto, released Tuesday. In order to protect the former sector, Labour said it will “provide a strategy focused on protecting vital North Sea assets, and the jobs and skills that depend on them”.

The reason given for the promise to ban fracking was because it would lock the country into an energy infrastructure based on fossil fuels, long after the point in 2030 when the Committee on Climate Change says gas in the UK must sharply decline.

“Emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage will help to smooth the transition to cleaner fuels and to protect existing jobs as part of the future energy mix,” the manifesto stated.

{So protecting offshore fossil fuel production jobs is good for the renewable transition?}

Following the publication of the Labour manifesto, David Wadham, utilities partner at law firm Ashurst, said the party’s proposed intervention in the energy markets is much more far-reaching than the Conservatives' proposed retail electricity price cap. “There are expressions of support for renewables (including tidal lagoon and carbon capture), as well as for nuclear. Fracking is seen as bad, but conversely North Sea oil is good.

{Might want to see if the folks on the Gulf Coast that had to deal with the BP Macondo blow out agree. LOL}
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 16 May 2017, 20:27:01

coffeeguyzz wrote:" ... deeper and hotter into the gas envelope".

In a few months' time, EQT should have drilled and completed another Deep Utica well, this one in Armstrong county, northeast of Pittsburgh.
Consol's highly successful Utica well, the Gaut, is located just south in Westmorland county.
As EQT now recognizes the necessity of using ceramic proppant at these depths, a successful Armstrong county Utica will continue to dramatically expand the productive footprint of the Utica.
As prodigious as the top Marcellus wells are, the Deep Utica wells are way better.


As I've mentioned previously, there is a belief that the Marcellus isn't the main gas play in the Appalachian Basin. The folks doing the drilling have been saying that since about 2014.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 16 May 2017, 20:34:31

ROCKMAN wrote:I might assume something was lost in the translation of the manifesto but since it was written in English that wouldn't explain the obvious contradictions. Such as preventing onshore oil patch jobs to preserve offshore oil patch jobs? And offshore fossil fuel production good...onshore fossil fuel production bad?

The UK Labour party has pledged to safeguard the offshore oil and gas industry and ban fracking in its 2017 manifesto, released Tuesday. In order to protect the former sector, Labour said it will “provide a strategy focused on protecting vital North Sea assets, and the jobs and skills that depend on them”.

The reason given for the promise to ban fracking was because it would lock the country into an energy infrastructure based on fossil fuels, long after the point in 2030 when the Committee on Climate Change says gas in the UK must sharply decline.

“Emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage will help to smooth the transition to cleaner fuels and to protect existing jobs as part of the future energy mix,” the manifesto stated.

{So protecting offshore fossil fuel production jobs is good for the renewable transition?}

Following the publication of the Labour manifesto, David Wadham, utilities partner at law firm Ashurst, said the party’s proposed intervention in the energy markets is much more far-reaching than the Conservatives' proposed retail electricity price cap. “There are expressions of support for renewables (including tidal lagoon and carbon capture), as well as for nuclear. Fracking is seen as bad, but conversely North Sea oil is good.

{Might want to see if the folks on the Gulf Coast that had to deal with the BP Macondo blow out agree. LOL}



As Winston Churchill supposedly quipped after meeting FDR in their first war conference, "We are two peoples separated by a common language!"
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 17 May 2017, 14:30:54

T - Yep. But that manifesto seems to have been written in a language that would even confuse the Brits.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 17 May 2017, 15:34:28

Pennsylvania DEP just released March production numbers the other day.
Big evolution in completions is obvious as 20/30 MMcfd flow rates for weeks (months?) are becoming routine.
5 well pad from Cabot, the King pad, has produced over 22 Bcf in less than 8 months online.
A new outfit, Travis Peak, just brought online it's very first well, a Utica up in Tioga county.
Online 21 days and over 258,000 MMcf already.
Shell has been developing Utica wells in Tioga for a few years now and only recently seems to produce consistent high producers.
A 3 well pad - the Gee - has been online under 5 months with the wells producing near 2 Bcf each.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 20 May 2017, 13:18:56

Just reading up a bit on the - mostly new - phenomena of shipping liquefied ethane from US ports ( Morgan's Point and Marcus Hook).

Indian, European and Chinese companies have gone from zero to big-time bokoo capacity by building mini fleets of new, purposefully built ethane carriers to fuel their crackers.
All this seems to have happened in the blink of an eye, time wise, and bodes well for the high btu gas coming out of the shale areas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 20 May 2017, 13:30:53

Coffee - I actually noticed that some time ago an posted a short note here. That's when I discovered much (maybe most) "LNG" shipped from the east coast was ethane and not methane. And it wasn't being imported for heating but for the manufacturing industry. Maybe tonight I'll be able to research the global context. As I suspect many who see LNG automatically think of home heating/power generation by methane. I had been until I discovered who some of the Brit LNG importers were and what they were doing with it.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 20 May 2017, 14:03:36

Rock
I googled 'ethane shipping india marcus hook' and a bunch of recent, highly informative articles popped up.
You mention Europe as a destination.
The 8 ship Dragon fleet, capacity 27,000 m3, is in service, but the 6 ship, 87,000 m3 LEC ships are now, apparently, also on the water and primarily supplying a brand new, huge cracker in India.
This is amazing capacity that has been put in place in a very short amount of time.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 20 May 2017, 22:22:59

Coffee - Yes, a lot has been going on under the radar. Found this from last November:

In 2016, chemical companies built navies.

"European chemical makers Ineos and Borealis have already christened ships that will carry ethane from the U.S. to their ethylene crackers in Europe. India’s Reliance Industries is taking delivery on a fleet of six so-called very large ethane carriers, which will be the biggest ships of their kind in the world, each with nearly 90,000 m3 of storage capacity.

The shale revolution has driven down U.S. natural gas prices. Today, on an energy content basis, natural gas is only one-third the price of oil. And a lot more ethane is being produced than the current stable of U.S. ethylene crackers can consume. Most of the excess is being left in natural gas and burned as fuel. The U.S. chemical industry has about a dozen ethylene projects in the works to gobble up a good chunk of the excess ethane. Foreign chemical makers want the rest."

{Perhaps you noticed my posts about $50 BILLION in refinery upgrades going on withing a 20 mile radius of where I'm typing. Every time I leave the house I see the 6 giant columns ExxonMobil is building on the other side of the highway. Much of that is going into ethane crackers. As this arrival points out a lot of valuable ethane is being pissed away by burning it with methane}

"Keefer Douglas, director of natural gas liquids research at IHS Markit, says U.S. crackers currently consume 21 million metric tons of ethane per year. By 2022, that number is projected to be 37 million metric tons. Another 8 million metric tons will be exported, much of it along the shipping routes and pipelines shown here. By then, the market will be balanced. “Given our outlook for U.S. oil and gas production, there’s enough ethane to meet the current slate of planned crackers plus the current slate of export contracts, but not much beyond that,” Douglas says"

And for those who don't understand the importance of ethane in the global economy:

Ethane is used in the production of ethylene for making plastics, anti-freeze and detergents; it's a ripening agent for foods, a refrigerant, a substance in producing welding gas and a primary ingredient in mustard gas. Ethane is a component in the natural gas methane and is removed by cryogenic liquefaction.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby taw » Sun 21 May 2017, 21:38:28

Sunday nights I scan Rockman's comments to get educated. Its sorta like PBS news hour, with bonus nuggets like we won't be running out of mustard gas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 21 May 2017, 22:02:58

taw - Still some around if you know where to look:

In 2014, a collection of 200 bombs were found on the boundary between the Flemish villages of Passendale and Moorslede. The majority of the bombs were filled with mustard agent. The bombs are a leftover from the German army and were meant to be used in the Battle of Passchendale in World War I. It was the largest collection of chemical weapons ever found in Belgium.

But no point in learning how to make a stockpile mustard gas at home: probably many here can produce an even nastier chemical weapon in their kitchen tonight:

There are two cleaning products in particular that can be extremely lethal when mixed, bleach and ammonia. When these two cleaners are mixed together they produce a lethal chlorine gas. Products that contain bleach (Clorox, toilet bowl cleaners) or ammonia (Windex, window cleaners) as part of its composition are obviously included, but sometimes overlooked.

When these chemicals are used on their own and the directions are followed, the most common result is a clean surface. However, if these two chemicals are mixed together the outcome could be potentially deadly. When ammonia and bleach are mixed together, the bleach breaks down into hydrochloric acid. The hydrochloric acid then reacts with the ammonia to produce chloramine vapours. These vapours are extremely toxic and can be fatal if inhaled.

This combination is so nasty and deadly that this chlorine gas was used as a chemical weapon during World War 1 & 2 by Germany.

And next Sunday night I'll teach y'all how you can make a landmine in 2 minutes that's capable of taking a foot. All you'll need is a 12 gauge shotgun shell and a $1 mousetrap. LOL.
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