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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 11:26:34

And like Canada hoping to develop a market for its NG besides the US the Russians are trying to develop more markets outside the EU. In addition to China now a small step towards Egypt:

Reuters - A trading unit of top Russian oil producer Rosneft has signed a deal to supply 10 LNG cargoes to the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company this year.

The first delivery by Rosneft Trading SA (RTSA) is expected in May, Rosneft said. "This agreement will help to further strengthen the strategic partnership between Rosneft and Egypt in an important area of energy security," the company said.

Once an energy exporter, Egypt has become a net importer because of declining oil and gas production and increasing consumption. It is trying to speed up production at recent discoveries to fill its energy gap as soon as possible.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 11:41:33

An odd story IMHO: why would a number of EU NG importers want to own a piece of a facility that has been supplying the UK (no longer a member of the EU) with 20% of its NG consumption? Think about it for a moment:

Reuters - The ownership of Norway's Nyhamna gas-processing plant, a major supplier of energy to Britain, could expand to 13 companies this year from five now when Gassco succeeds Royal Dutch Shell as the facility's operator, Shell told Reuters. Currently processing gas from the offshore Ormen Lange field, Nyhamna will also receive gasfrom Statoil's Aasta Hansteen and other fields from late 2018 via the new Polarled pipeline.

The plant exports gas to Britain via the Langeled pipeline, which can meet about 20 percent of Britain's gas needs. {Notice that it "can meet"...not "will meet"}

"We can confirm that the Nyhamna gas plant will become part of a new joint venture," said a Gassco spokeswoman, declining to comment on how the ownership will be split. Shell is one of 13 parties with future ownership interests.

The Nyhamna plant is currently owned by Ormen Lange license partners Norway's Petoro, Statoil, Shell, Denmark's DONG Energy and ExxonMobil. Potential future owners include France's Total, Wintershall, the oil and gas subsidiary of Germany's BASF, Italy's Edison, ConocoPhillips and Austria's OMV.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 28 Mar 2017, 16:02:58

Looks like more Canadian NG will be heading to Asia thanks to a cooperative native tribe supporting the construction of a pipeline and LNG plant. Apparently how "sacred" their land may have been at one time it became less sacred once the tribe was given a s!ice of the pie. Would have saved TransCanada a lot of bad PR it it had desacrified that Standing Rock land by giving the tribe a little slice:

Canada First Nation Makes History with LNG Vote

Canada First Nationalist Makes History with LNG Vote
Sarita LNG would source natural gas from northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta via existing and new pipelines.BTW
Citizens of the 750-strong Huu-ay-aht First Nation in western British Columbia recently voted in favor of a proposed LNG export project on Vancouver Island.

"The people have spoken," Robert J. Dennis, Senior Chief Councillor of the Huu-ay-aht First Nations, said of the citizens' 70-percent approval of the group's co-management arrangement with Steelhead LNG to develop the proposed Sarita LNG facility on western Vancouver Island. "We can move forward and take the people's message to the world, showing them what world-leading means. The people's vote will give the project business certainty to take it to the next stage. "Our co-management arrangement for this project is ground breaking and, by approving such a world-leading approach, Huu-ay-aht is continuing to be a leader among First Nations," said Dennis.

"This is a first in B.C. and Canada and creates a significant degree of certainty early in the project for not only Huu-ay-aht and Steelhead LNG, but also for government, investors and customers" added Nigel Kuzemko, CEO of Vancouver-based Steelhead LNG.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 31 Mar 2017, 13:18:26

And speaking of exporting NG some members of the EU Commission spear to be trying to save Ukraine's as while some countries are prepared to tell the Ukrainians (who have added a degree of instability to European NG imports) to go f*ck themselves. LOL. All part of the inevitable nature of fossil fuel depletion IMHO:

EU Seeks to Negotiate with Russia Over Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline

Reuters - "The European Union is seeking a mandate from member countries to negotiate with Russia over its plans to build a second pipeline to export more gas into Europe via the Baltic Sea to Germany, an EU document showed, as some EU states worry that the project will make Europe too reliant on Russian gas. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline would pass through Danish and Swedish waters and would displace Russia's need to export gas to Europe via Ukraine, where it has a transit agreement which ends in 2019.

Eastern European and Baltic Sea states fear a new pipeline will make the EU even more dependent {More dependent??? Do they mean like being "more pregnant"? LOL} on gas from Russia, whose state-controlled exporter Gazprom already supplies a third of the bloc's needs. Germany and other beneficiaries in north Europe back the plan. The European Commission and German regulators are at odds over whether EU law should apply to the pipeline."

{So similar to the Brits the Germans to not want the EU writing laws that will inhibit them from gaining a more secure access to imported NG. Just one small firefight in what will eventually become a full on war between fossil fuel consumers as global depletion follows its inevitable path. Yes, that MADOR thingy again. LOL}
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Fri 31 Mar 2017, 17:52:16

.
I've been following the EU gas market for years , it's the biggest in the world
two fifth come from inside ( mostly Norway ) two fifth from Russia Gazprom and a fifth from other places like North Africa and central Asia via Turkey

There is a mixture of Geo-politic , internal politic , trade , ecology ... the whole wrapped in a lot of money

The present episode is called North Stream 2 , and see Germany telling the commission to get lost .

Russia has been shafted by the commission with the Trans black sea pipeline blue stream landing in Bulgaria
it was to supply south East Europe without paying exorbitant fee to Ukraine ,
most of the European pipelines go East West and the South had not much connectors with the rest of Europe
Gazprom then put forward the old option of doubling the already build North stream 1
it was planned to be done and the lay out is ready

The Germans said that it is not a "new" project but merely an upgrade
all the enemies of Russia ( Poles ,Ukraine , Balts , British ) are screaming murder
but the soft spoken Germans are showing some pretty hard core stubbornness
since they carry a lot of weigh , it will be interesting to watch
the departure of Britain will change the voting too
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 05:27:52

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 10:24:51

OTOH US NG consumption was at a all time yearly high in 2016.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2A.htm

But production reached a yearly peak in 2015

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2A.htm

Given the volumes of NG exported and imported as well as those trend lines there's a somewhat complex dynamic to follow.

And interesting side note: NG production from the shale trends. Much of the credit for increases in production goes to the Marcellus Shale. Since 2007 shale production increased more the 6X. But since late 2015 that has essentially flat lined.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/ngm_ep ... _mmcfM.htm

So predicting the future of NG prices and supplies for the US consumer is not straightforward especially when increasing LNG exports are considered. And despite all the hype put out by the MSM that the US is is becoming a global LNG supplier: US LNG export PRICES have declined more the 2/3 since the peak during the summer of 2012 and the near peak Jan 2015. Those exports have increased greatly in the last few years but have been very erratic so projecting the future is difficult especially considering recent low prices.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9133us2M.htm
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 11:01:57

And speaking of shale production in New England and the difficulty getting it out due to local folks objecting to new pipelines. So if Mahammad can't get to the mountains just move (or build) the mountain to Mohammad:

Shell Reports 'Good Progress' on Pennsylvania Cracker Site Prep

"Shell Chemical reported that it has made "good progress" on various site preparations for its new world-scale ethane cracker near Pittsburgh. The company expects to start main site construction late this year, with commercial production slated to begin early next decade.

The Pennsylvania petrochemical complex will use ethane from the Marcellus and Utica basins to produce 1.6 million tonnes of polyethylene per year, Shell said. The company expects the project to create up to 6,000 jobs during construction and approximately 600 permanent employee positions during operations.

Pennsylvania officials hope that the Beaver County project is the first of several such complexes in the state. A recent Team Pennsylvania Foundation-Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development report prepared by IHS Markit concludes that the state could support as many as four additional crackers similar in size to the Shell facility."

And recall that such big infrastructure projects as this require long term contracts in order to guarantee future commodity supplies. IOW less supply/higher prices for consumers. Thus efforts to strand local NG for consumer benefit just took a bit of a hit. And add that to production from the shales leveling out and residential users might see much higher future winter heating bills then they were expecting.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 18:05:29

.
That's the problem with "moving the mountain"
an Ethane plant has a life of thirty years more or less , it need gas to function ,
the best way to carry gas is low pressure pipe reticulation ,is there enough of it locally for thirty years ?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 19:04:23

Some data points re the Appalachian Basin ...

Three big pipelines, the Rover, Leach Express, and Mariner East 2 - all currently under construction - are scheduled to be in service in a few months.
The combined capacity of the L/E and Rover is 4.75 Bcfd, within shouting distance of the Haynesville's daily output.
Again, the INCREMENTAL increase from the AB will, by the end of the year, approach Haynesville's numbers.
The ME2 has an original capacity of 275,000 bbbls of NGL/day, expandable to 450,000.
A second pipe, a 16 incher called Mariner East 2 X, is being emplaced sequentially with the 20 inch ME2. The 2X will flow 250,000 bbls/day.
These staggering amounts (not the 2X) are already contracted for long term firm transport from producers.

Antero, the most active driller in the AB, has only 50% of its Marcellus leasehold HBP, and 30% of its Utica. This, despite commonly held 5 year leasing terms.

As Enno Peters' excellent site shows, the 2016 wells are astoundingly productive relative to previous years. There are over 1,000 AB wells with cums above 5.8 Bcf ... the energy equivalent of million barrel oil wells.
The North central tier continues to show productive Utica expansion as well as SWPA having dozens of Genesee and Burket wells exceeding 1 Bcf cum with relatively short histories.

Gentlemen, the hydrocarbon resources poised to arise from this area will be stunning in scope.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 19:22:56

Edit:
Enno's numbers show 695 (out of 8,654) wells above 5.8 Bcf as of Dec. 2016.
The thousand plus would apply to wells above 5 Bcf.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Apr 2017, 22:16:07

sparky - "...is there enough of it locally for thirty years?" As described before such big capex projects like pipelines, processing plants, etc, that require long term don't get built without long-term supply contracts. And not just based on promised reserves by the seller but by some GUARENTEED form of bonding or future co tracts. And not just volume but also set prices during the life of the project and typically indexed to some benchmark price. Without that structure no economic analysis of the projected could be generated.

If the plant is built it will have NG supplied to it. If reserves get scarce in 20 years the plant will get NG residential user might wish they had access to. But a coffeguy says: there's a lot of gas in them there hills! But not an infinite amount.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sabashahid » Fri 14 Apr 2017, 06:39:22

Which country has the biggest Natural Gas reserves??
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 09:03:32

sabashahid wrote:Which country has the biggest Natural Gas reserves??


Russia if Wiki is to be believed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... n_reserves
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 16:30:52

Well this is interesting
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tand-still
More Rigs Don't Mean More U.S. Gas

Gas rigs have doubled since August; output falls 1.2%
Average Marcellus well produces 51% of what it did a year ago
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 18:49:18

Incredibly uninformed Bloomberg article.
While the data may be accurate, the whole tone is so skewed as to be laughable.
Range, which is mentioned in that piece, just completed 4 wells but could only turn 2 online due to each's 31MMcfd flow crowding out the remaining 2 on the pipeline.

Enno's latest post on the Marcellus shows how much more output the 2016 wells have with far fewer producers than preceding years.
The Appalachian Basin may become the biggest gas producing region on the planet shortly and it will hold that position for decades to come.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Tue 02 May 2017, 19:33:39

.
Did find a very interesting site from the Netherlands
http://www.clingendaelenergy.com/inc/up ... NG_web.pdf

" Outlook for the LNG imports into the EU to 2025 "

It make for Grim reading for the producers
- there is a massive over-equipment on liquefaction , with more to come
- the golden goose of the Asian market is turning into a turkey
- the EU market is not growing much
- delivered in Europe , LNG is 2$ per MMBTU more expensive than trading hubs market price
- the EU installed LNG re-gaseification plants have an utilization rate of 23% , some much lower

All the indicators are than this would not change for the coming decade
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 02 May 2017, 20:05:46

sparky wrote:.
Did find a very interesting site from the Netherlands
http://www.clingendaelenergy.com/inc/up ... NG_web.pdf

" Outlook for the LNG imports into the EU to 2025 "

It make for Grim reading for the producers
- there is a massive over-equipment on liquefaction , with more to come
- the golden goose of the Asian market is turning into a turkey
- the EU market is not growing much
- delivered in Europe , LNG is 2$ per MMBTU more expensive than trading hubs market price
- the EU installed LNG re-gaseification plants have an utilization rate of 23% , some much lower

All the indicators are than this would not change for the coming decade


Sounds like it boils down to Russian imports are still a lot cheaper and easily available. This brings up the question of the Siberian pipelines being built to transport Russian gas to China. The more China buys the less available for the rest of Europe.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 02 May 2017, 20:10:30

Sparky - "the EU installed LNG re-gaseification plants have an utilization rate of 23% , some much lower". Reminiscent of the original LNG import facility Chenier built at Sabine, Texas. $billions invested but as the years passed during the construction the US LNG market evaporated. If memory serves they never imported any LNG. And then US shale gas boomed about the same time LNG prices boomed: sometimes as much as $20/MCF...up to 5X domestic NG prices. So Chenier reversed gears and spent $billions more converting to LNG exporting.

And once again the timing sucked a tad: LNG prices dropped around 60%+. Still profitable but not close to the original economic model. Recently shipped its 100th load out of Texas. The majority of US LNG is shipped to S America. And now Chenier has to hope the development of SA shale gas, like at Vaca Muerta in Argentina, doesn't come on too fast.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 11 May 2017, 06:31:40

Latest STEO forecast. They have revised 2017 up 0.4 bcf/d and 2018 down 0.9 bcf/d bringing total supply 0.5 bcf/d lower than their February forecast.

So a total increase in the next two years of 5 bcf/d forecast by the EIA. Marcellus rigs fell by 3 last week after rising to 46 rigs active previously. NG prices are much stronger this year than last but no where close to supporting an increase of 5 bcf/d, IMO.


https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to rise by an average of 4.1 Bcf/d from the 2017 level.


U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 74.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, which was the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.2 Bcf/d more than the 2017 level.
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