Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
ROCKMAN wrote:Doc - Another true story... I was a partner in ee well. An Austin Chalk NG well in Texas. A local farmer was stealing NG since he "hot tapped" (splice into a flowing pipeline) into the buried line. The engineer couldn't figure where he was losing gas. Finally put some dye into the line at the wellhead and pressured up. The farmer had run his line to his rice drier. By pressuring up the burners flared up and burned down his drier. Drove down to the well and raised hell with the engineer. Not smart especially since the well was on the lease of one of his relatives. Essentially stealing some of his family's royalty monies. And everevern worse: the ernghineer was a cousin to the county deputy sheriff.
GoghGoner wrote:GoghGoner wrote:Well, the EIA released a new forecast. Their monthly data has showed a decrease in the last two months, however, their annual forecast looks flat for a few months and then back to growth. Natural gas futures are showing increasing prices through next winter (over $3 next winter) so investors are betting that the supply/demand picture is tightening.
The EIA finally realized that 2016 production would be less than 2015! Glad I didn't believe them. Predicting a nice increase in 2017. Guess what -- it is not going to happen. From the STEO today:Natural gas marketed production fell from 79.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in September 2015 to 76.5 Bcf/d in July 2016. EIA expects marketed natural gas production to average 77.5 Bcf/d in 2016, a decrease of 1.6% from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. Forecast production increases by 3.7 Bcf/d in 2017.
GoghGoner wrote:After not being accurate with their 2016 predictions, the EIA now expects Marcellus production to start growing this month. Once again, I don't see it -- as the rig count grows (and the drillers have only added 6 rigs in the region), the initial production rate will fall. I don't think the EIA believes that, yet. They will. To raise production in Marcellus we would need to see an explosion in rig counts.
GoghGoner wrote:Quite a drawdown! Where is all of that Marcellus production? LOL!
Weather forecasts turns colder after next week, if we see a couple of arctic blasts, hold on to your hats.
ROCKMAN wrote:vt - "Is that a given considering the incoming Trump administration?". I would assume so since I believe the caffeine fiend was referring to coal fired plants that have been decommissioned and wouldn't be available regardless of who the POTUS might be. By speaking of burning coal: are you aware that more US coal was produced in one year under President Obama then any other POTUS in history?
And speaking of NG prices/supplies sometimes the problem isn't the amount available in storage but insufficient pipeline capacity to make deliveries to the end users. I recall during a past winter when New England got hit really hard and they couldn't get NG to Boston fast enough so a local utility bought a couple of tanker loads of LNG from the spot market for around $22/MCF. Way above the price of pipeline supplies. Same problem with propane in another very cold snap: lots of propane in storage but not enough delivery trucks to get it to home owners before they ran out.
Many get pissed off when the "just in time" systems fail. Typically the same folks who don't want to pay for additional infrastructure that's not used very often.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests