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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 09:56:15

ROCKMAN wrote:T - "Unfortunately if the trend flip flops and goes 10 under the rest of the winter...". From your lips to Dog's ear. LOL.


Speakng of trends, today we are suppossed to set a record high. Last night the furnace, set at 62 F, never came on because outside it never got below 64.

Tomorrow we are suppossed to get a chance of freezing rain in our thunderstorms overnight.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 18:09:41

Sub - We've got the first blue norther' blowing in right now: heavy rain for a couple of hours. And then tomorrow the daily high today will plung from 80F down to 65F. Time to get my down coat out. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 20:42:15

http://gcaptain.com/americas-track-expo ... -november/

America’s on Track to Export a Record Volume of Shale Gas in November
November 18, 2016 by Bloomberg

By Jim Polson

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. is set to export a record number of cargoes of shale gas this month.

Nine liquefied natural gas tankers have departed or are scheduled to leave Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal in November, already the most for any month since exports began in February, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and Genscape Inc.

The exports follow a massive shale boom in the U.S. that’s unleashed a flood of gas supplies from the Marcellus and Utica in the east to the Eagle Ford in Texas. The country is on course to become a net exporter of natural gas next year, a stark turnaround from just a decade ago when it was facing a shortage.

“The continental U.S. becoming a net natural gas exporter is a milestone of the U.S. energy revolution and transition to ‘energy independence,’” Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

The Sabine Pass complex in Louisiana has exported 40 cargoes totaling about 6.5 million cubic meters of LNG since February, Zach Allen, president of Pan Eurasian Enterprises, said in a research note.

Cheniere, which became the nation’s first and only exporter of shale gas in February, was cleared by U.S. regulators last month to start loading tankers from a second plant at Sabine Pass.

Cheniere didn’t immediately return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 21:09:26

The US is currently the world's leader in exporting liquefied propane (LPG) at about half million barrels a day.
Recently started exporting liquefied ethane out of Texas and Philadelphia.
When the 275,000 bbld Mariner East 2 gets built (next year?), ethane and propane exports could jump significantly.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 22:21:03

All data from the EIA:

Natural gas exports from the United States grew 18% in 2015 to 1,784 Bcf, mostly as a result of increased natural gas exports to Mexico. Natural gas exports to Canada increased slightly in 2015 to 701 Bcf. The United States also exported LNG and compressed natural gas to several countries, but these volumes were relatively small in 2015.

Latest NG export numbers: Aug 2016:

Total: 212 bcf
Pipeline: 185 bcf...Mexico: 130 bcf
LNG: 28 bcf...13% of total exports...Biggest buyer: Chile...9.5 bcf

Recent news regarding NG exports to Mexico:

U.S. piped gas to Mexico has more than tripled since 2010 to about 3 Bcf/day. By 2019, 15 new pipelines will more than double capacity to Mexico to around 15 Bcf/day (1.1 TCF/year). IOW 450 bcf/month compared to the 130 bcf exported last Aug.

On Sept. 9, the Obama administration revoked authorization for construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline and asked the pipeline's owners, led by Energy Transfer Partners to voluntarily halt construction on adjacent areas at the center of protests. In May, the federal government approved permits for two Texas pipelines—the Trans-Pecos and Comanche Trail—also owned by Energy Transfer Partners. This action and related moves will ensure that U.S. fracked gas will be flooding the energy grid in Mexico.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 12:42:17

Question for fracking and Natural Gas production.

I have seen statements to the effect that very old natural gas wells in tight shale are still producing at a modest rate 50 or more years after they were initially completed.

Is that true? If it is not true then the rest of this is not relevant.

Presuming it is true, a fracked well in shale has the same rapid decline rate curve (or near enough) to the decline curve we see in all those fracked light tight oil wells that have come online in the last decade. Does that decline curve turn into a very long duration moderate rate production for decades after initial decline? Or does the well lose economic value quickly?

My understanding is once a natural gas well is completed and placed in production it just keeps producing until all of the pressure in the formation is expelled, which can be a very very long time at low rates of production. If this is an accurate portrayal will all those fracked wells in the Marcellus and Utica shales still be producing in say 2046?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 14:37:32

Tanada
That's a great question that, hopefully, knowledgeable folks like RM and RD will weigh in on.
I just posted a comment on another site regarding decline rates on Appalachian Basin wells, (still highly prolific, on the whole), but the economic aspects, as much as the physical, loom large in this matter.

Rather than moving thick liquids sideways and upwards for 4 miles in a 10,000' lateral in the Bakken, natgas generally flows naturally upwards via higher natural pressure.
As it draws down over time, compressors are installed that help 'pull' the gas up and out downstream into pipelines.
It is vastly less expensive to operate natgas wells versus oil wells.

As for longevity, there may still be numerous operating gas wells over a century online, as, in fact, there are still ancient oil wells producing in western PA.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 14:58:44

I have seen statements to the effect that very old natural gas wells in tight shale are still producing at a modest rate 50 or more years after they were initially completed.

Is that true? If it is not true then the rest of this is not relevant.


The Antrim shale is the poster child. Michigan basin, Devonian shales and siltstones. I think the first wells were drilled in the forties and lots of activity in the sixties. About 9000 well drilled in the overall trend.

Presuming it is true, a fracked well in shale has the same rapid decline rate curve (or near enough) to the decline curve we see in all those fracked light tight oil wells that have come online in the last decade. Does that decline curve turn into a very long duration moderate rate production for decades after initial decline? Or does the well lose economic value quickly?


I can't find the website at the moment but Terry Engelder did a bang up job of describing the theoretical production profiles of fracked gas wells a number of years ago. In essence the wells should theoretically see a rapid hyperbolic decline in the first number of months of production as the open fractures and near borehole are produced. This is followed by a long period of exponential decline which presumably is a product of areas which are contacted with fractures filling up the fractures. The shales which have longer production history with decent sized horizontal extensions seem to fit that pattern but whether or not they will produce for decades at low decline rates remains a question.

The answer to whether or not these wells will still be producing is more complex. Often wells experience problems in their production history through things such as casing collapse, corrossion, perforation plugging, development of microannulus and crossflow etc. If the well is producing at very low rates and natural gas prices are low it might not make economic sense to do a well intervention of some form and the well might be abandoned as a consequence. Usually operating costs are fairly low with respect to shale gas wells but there are still some costs and the point at which net revenue (after royalties) can't cover operating costs is when wells are abandoned.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 15:36:06

I've drilled the New Albany Shale in KY. Supposedly the oldest US NG play. And all vertical wells. It's very unique among even other shales. Most, if not all, of the methane is molecularly bound to organic matter. As it is produced, sometime with a bit of dewatering, the lower pressure causes instability which breaks those bonds. As a result not only can such wells produce for 50+ years but over decades the production rate will actually increase slightly.

That's the good news. The bad news: the NAS wells tend to be very !ow rate producers: 150 MCF/day is considered great. And those long lived wells: eventually 20 to 30 MCF/day. The biggest problem is pipeline infrastructure: difficult to invest in pipelines to capture such small wells. Probably tens to hundreds of thousands of potentially commercial wells except for those pipeline costs. I tried to develop unmanned well head gas-fired skid mounted electric generators since power lines are much more common. But between resistant power companies and expensive equipment could not talk any operator into giving it a try.

Really cheap to drill, Doc: a 2-man air rig: all it cost was drill bits and diesel. So easy to tell when you hit the NAS: so organic that returns blowing into the air looked like an oil fire. Actually had a deputy sheriff come off the highway one day thinking we had a bad fire.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 16:06:42

ROCKMAN wrote:I've drilled the New Albany Shale in KY. Supposedly the oldest US NG play. And all vertical wells. It's very unique among even other shales. Most, if not all, of the methane is molecularly bound to organic matter. As it is produced, sometime with a bit of dewatering, the lower pressure causes instability which breaks those bonds. As a result not only can such wells produce for 50+ years but over decades the production rate will actually increase slightly.

That's the good news. The bad news: the NAS wells tend to be very !ow rate producers: 150 MCF/day is considered great. And those long lived wells: eventually 20 to 30 MCF/day. The biggest problem is pipeline infrastructure: difficult to invest in pipelines to capture such small wells. Probably tens to hundreds of thousands of potentially commercial wells except for those pipeline costs. I tried to develop unmanned well head gas-fired skid mounted electric generators since power lines are much more common. But between resistant power companies and expensive equipment could not talk any operator into giving it a try.

Really cheap to drill, Doc: a 2-man air rig: all it cost was drill bits and diesel. So easy to tell when you hit the NAS: so organic that returns blowing into the air looked like an oil fire. Actually had a deputy sheriff come off the highway one day thinking we had a bad fire.


Back around 2000 I read a book set in West Virginia where a couple f the local farmers had wells like that on their property. They had free gas for heating and cooking at home and enough left over it was worth pressurizing for use as fuel in their converted farm equipment. One of the farms had a 60 year old well from before World War II they were still using to run everything but their telephone and electricity needs.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 17:23:56

Sub - Yep: the NAS runs across a good bit of Appalachia and a faid ways west. I mentioned before finding a 20' thick NG reservoir at 46' in a deeper well. Even though I have the well connected to a pipeline I'll never complete: too expense to compress it to a high enough pressure (600 psi) to get it into the sales line. The reservoir is also in my PVC cased waterr well 80' away. Normally I give the water wells to the surface owner when I plug the lease. But not this time: no amount of paper wouild ever clear me of potential liability if he blew himserlf up. But I will tell him its there when I give the lease back.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 20:30:41

Sub - Yep: the NAS runs across a good bit of Appalachia and a faid ways west. I mentioned before finding a 20' thick NG reservoir at 46' in a deeper well. Even though I have the well connected to a pipeline I'll never complete: too expense to compress it to a high enough pressure (600 psi) to get it into the sales line. The reservoir is also in my PVC cased waterr well 80' away. Normally I give the water wells to the surface owner when I plug the lease. But not this time: no amount of paper wouild ever clear me of potential liability if he blew himserlf up. But I will tell him its there when I give the lease back.


You evil fracker....obviously that gas in the acquifer is due to your destructive petroleum operations. All those farmers are lining up to be part of that class action suit!! :lol:
I'm sure some greenie will want to make a movie about it all!

Subs story reminds me of a story I was told by the fellow who was credited with discovery of Turner Valley oil field. An interesting guy who passed away many years ago. When in the field knocking about on rocks he was adorned in a cowboy hat, shit kickers and a beaded rawhide jacket which his wife (Stoney First Nations) had made for him. Regardless of our laws in Canada he regularly carried a sidearm (lots of bears in the Turner Valley area and south to Watertown back in those days). The story he told was about a local rancher who figured out by cutting off an old wellhead he could access enough wet gas to run his vehicles and fuel his stove. He left a heavy rock on top of the severed pipe as a "cap" between his visits to refuel. Unfortunately one of the cattle wandering around accidentally kicked the rock off the pipe one day and it created a spark. Needless to say there was several thousand pounds of barbequed Alberta beef readily available that afternoon.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 11 Dec 2016, 21:21:21

Doc - Another true story... I was a partner in ee well. An Austin Chalk NG well in Texas. A local farmer was stealing NG since he "hot tapped" (splice into a flowing pipeline) into the buried line. The engineer couldn't figure where he was losing gas. Finally put some dye into the line at the wellhead and pressured up. The farmer had run his line to his rice drier. By pressuring up the burners flared up and burned down his drier. Drove down to the well and raised hell with the engineer. Not smart especially since the well was on the lease of one of his relatives. Essentially stealing some of his family's royalty monies. And everevern worse: the ernghineer was a cousin to the county deputy sheriff.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Dec 2016, 22:11:48

ROCKMAN wrote:Doc - Another true story... I was a partner in ee well. An Austin Chalk NG well in Texas. A local farmer was stealing NG since he "hot tapped" (splice into a flowing pipeline) into the buried line. The engineer couldn't figure where he was losing gas. Finally put some dye into the line at the wellhead and pressured up. The farmer had run his line to his rice drier. By pressuring up the burners flared up and burned down his drier. Drove down to the well and raised hell with the engineer. Not smart especially since the well was on the lease of one of his relatives. Essentially stealing some of his family's royalty monies. And everevern worse: the ernghineer was a cousin to the county deputy sheriff.


At least he didn't use a gun on anyone. I had a landowner that shot a hole in the gasline, disconnected the first 2 compression couplings that first the utility and then the company installed, and held off the crew with a gun that I sent out with a backhoe to fix the thing and bury it. The cops arrive, I get them to cuff the guy and him in the back of the cop car while the guys fix and bury the line, and then cited for causing a disturbance.

Get this, the guy fights the citation in court, everyone gets a subpoena, spend the afternoon in court, and the beauty of it was that after it was all said and done, the judge goes bananas on the guy, changes his fine to the maximum and throws full court costs for wasting everyone's time. Neatest result from any court determination that I've ever been involved in.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 12 Dec 2016, 12:11:33

Wondering off thread but what the hell...slow news day on NG. So about armed locals:

I've known only one geologist ever shot in the field. He was working in Mississippi for a couple of months. Started screwing so local gal. One day drove to her house in the country but stopped down the road when he saw a bunch of motorcycles in front. Knew her biker boyfriend had been in jail. So he started to back around and heard a thud. Bullet went thru the driver's door and nicked him in the leg.

Apparently the boyfriend made parole early. LOL. I've been confronted by upset land owners or hunters more then once. Always gave my standard answer: "Yes sir, leaving now". Have a good day."
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Re: US Natural Gas production starting the decline

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 07:28:57

GoghGoner wrote:
GoghGoner wrote:Well, the EIA released a new forecast. Their monthly data has showed a decrease in the last two months, however, their annual forecast looks flat for a few months and then back to growth. Natural gas futures are showing increasing prices through next winter (over $3 next winter) so investors are betting that the supply/demand picture is tightening.

Image


The EIA finally realized that 2016 production would be less than 2015! Glad I didn't believe them. Predicting a nice increase in 2017. Guess what -- it is not going to happen. From the STEO today:

Natural gas marketed production fell from 79.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in September 2015 to 76.5 Bcf/d in July 2016. EIA expects marketed natural gas production to average 77.5 Bcf/d in 2016, a decrease of 1.6% from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. Forecast production increases by 3.7 Bcf/d in 2017.


After not being accurate with their 2016 predictions, the EIA now expects Marcellus production to start growing this month. Once again, I don't see it -- as the rig count grows (and the drillers have only added 6 rigs in the region), the initial production rate will fall. I don't think the EIA believes that, yet. They will. To raise production in Marcellus we would need to see an explosion in rig counts.

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Re: US Natural Gas production starting the decline

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 07:59:33

GoghGoner wrote:After not being accurate with their 2016 predictions, the EIA now expects Marcellus production to start growing this month. Once again, I don't see it -- as the rig count grows (and the drillers have only added 6 rigs in the region), the initial production rate will fall. I don't think the EIA believes that, yet. They will. To raise production in Marcellus we would need to see an explosion in rig counts.

Image


How many rigs do you think it will take to balance new supply against he depletion curve of the wells older than say 3 years when they are in the long slow decline phase?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 09:25:20

If you take Barnett as an example, older wells will decline about 10% per year. My suspicion on Marcellus is that the decline rate would be higher -- the bigger they are the harder they fall.

http://energyevidence.blogspot.com/2016/05/shale-gas-decline-case-barnett-shale.html

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Haynesville rig count was around 50 and that region showed a very slow decline.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/haynesville.pdf
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 09:34:39

Marcellus was running 80+ rigs before 2015 and now the region is at 40. The low was 21 at the beginning of August. The sweetest spots have been drilled and the companies milked them to survive this downturn. As they expand, it will be into less efficient sites.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 11:37:57

Decline rates stay at 10 percent long term? That would mean after the three year rapid decline the wells would only remain useful for another 7 years or less?

So if 80+ was leading to an increase but 40 is leading to a decline I will mentally split the difference and say 60 might produce a steady state production level for the Marcellus formation. That number will have to gradually grow over time as less and less sweet spots are remaining in the potential drilling leases.
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