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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 28 Oct 2016, 03:59:35

The Ohio hydrocarbon situation is very interesting for many reasons.
The prodigious nature of the dry gas wells, primarily located in Belmont and Monroe counties, can be seen in Ohio's DNR reporting where 50 wells pproduced over 1 Bcf first quarter 2016.
Another three dozen produced over 800 MMcf during that time.

Targeting the Clinton Sandstone at about 3/4 thousand feet depth - and drilling 2,000' laterals - Enervest recently brought online 7 wells with modest production results.
The company hopes to develop this asset more comprehensively when WTI enables making it worthwhile.
There us a great deal of research underway in attempting to 'lift' the liquid hydrocarbons beneath Ohio in an effective manner.

A tiny outfit up in Canada, Granite Oil, has been effectively re-injecting field gas in their Alberta Bakken operation for awhile now using horizontal wellbores for both injection and extraction purposes.
Their website has graphics depicting this process.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Fri 11 Nov 2016, 07:07:47

The record setting warm temps in the US have crashed natural gas prices and they look to continue. Just when it seemed that producers would be having a little less red in the books...

Natural Gas Falls to Nearly-Three-Month Low

Weather forecasts are showing mild temperatures, often extremely-above-normal, covering most of the country through Thanksgiving. Traders often rely on early-winter cold to shrink supply and help bets on a winter surge pay off. Without it, prices that had just hit a nearly-two-year high last month have had far to fall.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Nov 2016, 08:35:09

GoghGoner wrote:The record setting warm temps in the US have crashed natural gas prices and they look to continue. Just when it seemed that producers would be having a little less red in the books...

Natural Gas Falls to Nearly-Three-Month Low

Weather forecasts are showing mild temperatures, often extremely-above-normal, covering most of the country through Thanksgiving. Traders often rely on early-winter cold to shrink supply and help bets on a winter surge pay off. Without it, prices that had just hit a nearly-two-year high last month have had far to fall.


As much as it pains them it certainly helps my wallet.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 11 Nov 2016, 10:46:11

T/Goner - The rule in the oil patch has always been: the winter NG price spike doesn't kick off until Chicago starts freezing. Really.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 16 Nov 2016, 11:24:00

Chicago better freeze soon or you will have to pay folks to use natural gas. I do think inventories will fall like a rock once winter kicks in (I like T's blob theory) but this radicalized weather can really throw a wrench in the works.

EIA: Amount of natural gas in storage reaches new record

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 16 Nov 2016, 14:40:23

Goner - And just this morning I saw the jet stream map that's pulling a lot of warm Gulf air way up north towards IL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Nov 2016, 15:20:06

GoghGoner wrote:Chicago better freeze soon or you will have to pay folks to use natural gas. I do think inventories will fall like a rock once winter kicks in (I like T's blob theory) but this radicalized weather can really throw a wrench in the works.

EIA: Amount of natural gas in storage reaches new record

Image



Perhaps soon, but this Friday is forecast to be 70F in Toledo so not a whole lot of natural gas burning going on yet. Sure we are heating at night, but we have only had a couple actual frosts so far this season and most nights have been in the 40F range, nothing like the nightly dips into the upper 20's that are average this time of year. I just checked and the average low this time of the month is 28F so we are averaging 10F above normal so far this month. Based on the EIA formula a difference of 10 degrees adds up to a 30 percent cut in energy use for heating, so the warm spell neatly explains why stocks are building so much right now. Unfortunately if the trend flip flops and goes 10 under the rest of the winter we will more than make up for that little bit of savings with the extra costs.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 11:15:29

T - "Unfortunately if the trend flip flops and goes 10 under the rest of the winter...". From your lips to Dog's ear. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 09:56:15

ROCKMAN wrote:T - "Unfortunately if the trend flip flops and goes 10 under the rest of the winter...". From your lips to Dog's ear. LOL.


Speakng of trends, today we are suppossed to set a record high. Last night the furnace, set at 62 F, never came on because outside it never got below 64.

Tomorrow we are suppossed to get a chance of freezing rain in our thunderstorms overnight.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 18:09:41

Sub - We've got the first blue norther' blowing in right now: heavy rain for a couple of hours. And then tomorrow the daily high today will plung from 80F down to 65F. Time to get my down coat out. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 20:42:15

http://gcaptain.com/americas-track-expo ... -november/

America’s on Track to Export a Record Volume of Shale Gas in November
November 18, 2016 by Bloomberg

By Jim Polson

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. is set to export a record number of cargoes of shale gas this month.

Nine liquefied natural gas tankers have departed or are scheduled to leave Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal in November, already the most for any month since exports began in February, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and Genscape Inc.

The exports follow a massive shale boom in the U.S. that’s unleashed a flood of gas supplies from the Marcellus and Utica in the east to the Eagle Ford in Texas. The country is on course to become a net exporter of natural gas next year, a stark turnaround from just a decade ago when it was facing a shortage.

“The continental U.S. becoming a net natural gas exporter is a milestone of the U.S. energy revolution and transition to ‘energy independence,’” Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

The Sabine Pass complex in Louisiana has exported 40 cargoes totaling about 6.5 million cubic meters of LNG since February, Zach Allen, president of Pan Eurasian Enterprises, said in a research note.

Cheniere, which became the nation’s first and only exporter of shale gas in February, was cleared by U.S. regulators last month to start loading tankers from a second plant at Sabine Pass.

Cheniere didn’t immediately return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 21:09:26

The US is currently the world's leader in exporting liquefied propane (LPG) at about half million barrels a day.
Recently started exporting liquefied ethane out of Texas and Philadelphia.
When the 275,000 bbld Mariner East 2 gets built (next year?), ethane and propane exports could jump significantly.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 22:21:03

All data from the EIA:

Natural gas exports from the United States grew 18% in 2015 to 1,784 Bcf, mostly as a result of increased natural gas exports to Mexico. Natural gas exports to Canada increased slightly in 2015 to 701 Bcf. The United States also exported LNG and compressed natural gas to several countries, but these volumes were relatively small in 2015.

Latest NG export numbers: Aug 2016:

Total: 212 bcf
Pipeline: 185 bcf...Mexico: 130 bcf
LNG: 28 bcf...13% of total exports...Biggest buyer: Chile...9.5 bcf

Recent news regarding NG exports to Mexico:

U.S. piped gas to Mexico has more than tripled since 2010 to about 3 Bcf/day. By 2019, 15 new pipelines will more than double capacity to Mexico to around 15 Bcf/day (1.1 TCF/year). IOW 450 bcf/month compared to the 130 bcf exported last Aug.

On Sept. 9, the Obama administration revoked authorization for construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline and asked the pipeline's owners, led by Energy Transfer Partners to voluntarily halt construction on adjacent areas at the center of protests. In May, the federal government approved permits for two Texas pipelines—the Trans-Pecos and Comanche Trail—also owned by Energy Transfer Partners. This action and related moves will ensure that U.S. fracked gas will be flooding the energy grid in Mexico.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 12:42:17

Question for fracking and Natural Gas production.

I have seen statements to the effect that very old natural gas wells in tight shale are still producing at a modest rate 50 or more years after they were initially completed.

Is that true? If it is not true then the rest of this is not relevant.

Presuming it is true, a fracked well in shale has the same rapid decline rate curve (or near enough) to the decline curve we see in all those fracked light tight oil wells that have come online in the last decade. Does that decline curve turn into a very long duration moderate rate production for decades after initial decline? Or does the well lose economic value quickly?

My understanding is once a natural gas well is completed and placed in production it just keeps producing until all of the pressure in the formation is expelled, which can be a very very long time at low rates of production. If this is an accurate portrayal will all those fracked wells in the Marcellus and Utica shales still be producing in say 2046?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 14:37:32

Tanada
That's a great question that, hopefully, knowledgeable folks like RM and RD will weigh in on.
I just posted a comment on another site regarding decline rates on Appalachian Basin wells, (still highly prolific, on the whole), but the economic aspects, as much as the physical, loom large in this matter.

Rather than moving thick liquids sideways and upwards for 4 miles in a 10,000' lateral in the Bakken, natgas generally flows naturally upwards via higher natural pressure.
As it draws down over time, compressors are installed that help 'pull' the gas up and out downstream into pipelines.
It is vastly less expensive to operate natgas wells versus oil wells.

As for longevity, there may still be numerous operating gas wells over a century online, as, in fact, there are still ancient oil wells producing in western PA.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 14:58:44

I have seen statements to the effect that very old natural gas wells in tight shale are still producing at a modest rate 50 or more years after they were initially completed.

Is that true? If it is not true then the rest of this is not relevant.


The Antrim shale is the poster child. Michigan basin, Devonian shales and siltstones. I think the first wells were drilled in the forties and lots of activity in the sixties. About 9000 well drilled in the overall trend.

Presuming it is true, a fracked well in shale has the same rapid decline rate curve (or near enough) to the decline curve we see in all those fracked light tight oil wells that have come online in the last decade. Does that decline curve turn into a very long duration moderate rate production for decades after initial decline? Or does the well lose economic value quickly?


I can't find the website at the moment but Terry Engelder did a bang up job of describing the theoretical production profiles of fracked gas wells a number of years ago. In essence the wells should theoretically see a rapid hyperbolic decline in the first number of months of production as the open fractures and near borehole are produced. This is followed by a long period of exponential decline which presumably is a product of areas which are contacted with fractures filling up the fractures. The shales which have longer production history with decent sized horizontal extensions seem to fit that pattern but whether or not they will produce for decades at low decline rates remains a question.

The answer to whether or not these wells will still be producing is more complex. Often wells experience problems in their production history through things such as casing collapse, corrossion, perforation plugging, development of microannulus and crossflow etc. If the well is producing at very low rates and natural gas prices are low it might not make economic sense to do a well intervention of some form and the well might be abandoned as a consequence. Usually operating costs are fairly low with respect to shale gas wells but there are still some costs and the point at which net revenue (after royalties) can't cover operating costs is when wells are abandoned.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 15:36:06

I've drilled the New Albany Shale in KY. Supposedly the oldest US NG play. And all vertical wells. It's very unique among even other shales. Most, if not all, of the methane is molecularly bound to organic matter. As it is produced, sometime with a bit of dewatering, the lower pressure causes instability which breaks those bonds. As a result not only can such wells produce for 50+ years but over decades the production rate will actually increase slightly.

That's the good news. The bad news: the NAS wells tend to be very !ow rate producers: 150 MCF/day is considered great. And those long lived wells: eventually 20 to 30 MCF/day. The biggest problem is pipeline infrastructure: difficult to invest in pipelines to capture such small wells. Probably tens to hundreds of thousands of potentially commercial wells except for those pipeline costs. I tried to develop unmanned well head gas-fired skid mounted electric generators since power lines are much more common. But between resistant power companies and expensive equipment could not talk any operator into giving it a try.

Really cheap to drill, Doc: a 2-man air rig: all it cost was drill bits and diesel. So easy to tell when you hit the NAS: so organic that returns blowing into the air looked like an oil fire. Actually had a deputy sheriff come off the highway one day thinking we had a bad fire.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 16:06:42

ROCKMAN wrote:I've drilled the New Albany Shale in KY. Supposedly the oldest US NG play. And all vertical wells. It's very unique among even other shales. Most, if not all, of the methane is molecularly bound to organic matter. As it is produced, sometime with a bit of dewatering, the lower pressure causes instability which breaks those bonds. As a result not only can such wells produce for 50+ years but over decades the production rate will actually increase slightly.

That's the good news. The bad news: the NAS wells tend to be very !ow rate producers: 150 MCF/day is considered great. And those long lived wells: eventually 20 to 30 MCF/day. The biggest problem is pipeline infrastructure: difficult to invest in pipelines to capture such small wells. Probably tens to hundreds of thousands of potentially commercial wells except for those pipeline costs. I tried to develop unmanned well head gas-fired skid mounted electric generators since power lines are much more common. But between resistant power companies and expensive equipment could not talk any operator into giving it a try.

Really cheap to drill, Doc: a 2-man air rig: all it cost was drill bits and diesel. So easy to tell when you hit the NAS: so organic that returns blowing into the air looked like an oil fire. Actually had a deputy sheriff come off the highway one day thinking we had a bad fire.


Back around 2000 I read a book set in West Virginia where a couple f the local farmers had wells like that on their property. They had free gas for heating and cooking at home and enough left over it was worth pressurizing for use as fuel in their converted farm equipment. One of the farms had a 60 year old well from before World War II they were still using to run everything but their telephone and electricity needs.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 17:23:56

Sub - Yep: the NAS runs across a good bit of Appalachia and a faid ways west. I mentioned before finding a 20' thick NG reservoir at 46' in a deeper well. Even though I have the well connected to a pipeline I'll never complete: too expense to compress it to a high enough pressure (600 psi) to get it into the sales line. The reservoir is also in my PVC cased waterr well 80' away. Normally I give the water wells to the surface owner when I plug the lease. But not this time: no amount of paper wouild ever clear me of potential liability if he blew himserlf up. But I will tell him its there when I give the lease back.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 10 Dec 2016, 20:30:41

Sub - Yep: the NAS runs across a good bit of Appalachia and a faid ways west. I mentioned before finding a 20' thick NG reservoir at 46' in a deeper well. Even though I have the well connected to a pipeline I'll never complete: too expense to compress it to a high enough pressure (600 psi) to get it into the sales line. The reservoir is also in my PVC cased waterr well 80' away. Normally I give the water wells to the surface owner when I plug the lease. But not this time: no amount of paper wouild ever clear me of potential liability if he blew himserlf up. But I will tell him its there when I give the lease back.


You evil fracker....obviously that gas in the acquifer is due to your destructive petroleum operations. All those farmers are lining up to be part of that class action suit!! :lol:
I'm sure some greenie will want to make a movie about it all!

Subs story reminds me of a story I was told by the fellow who was credited with discovery of Turner Valley oil field. An interesting guy who passed away many years ago. When in the field knocking about on rocks he was adorned in a cowboy hat, shit kickers and a beaded rawhide jacket which his wife (Stoney First Nations) had made for him. Regardless of our laws in Canada he regularly carried a sidearm (lots of bears in the Turner Valley area and south to Watertown back in those days). The story he told was about a local rancher who figured out by cutting off an old wellhead he could access enough wet gas to run his vehicles and fuel his stove. He left a heavy rock on top of the severed pipe as a "cap" between his visits to refuel. Unfortunately one of the cattle wandering around accidentally kicked the rock off the pipe one day and it created a spark. Needless to say there was several thousand pounds of barbequed Alberta beef readily available that afternoon.
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