Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
Weather forecasts are showing mild temperatures, often extremely-above-normal, covering most of the country through Thanksgiving. Traders often rely on early-winter cold to shrink supply and help bets on a winter surge pay off. Without it, prices that had just hit a nearly-two-year high last month have had far to fall.
GoghGoner wrote:The record setting warm temps in the US have crashed natural gas prices and they look to continue. Just when it seemed that producers would be having a little less red in the books...
Natural Gas Falls to Nearly-Three-Month LowWeather forecasts are showing mild temperatures, often extremely-above-normal, covering most of the country through Thanksgiving. Traders often rely on early-winter cold to shrink supply and help bets on a winter surge pay off. Without it, prices that had just hit a nearly-two-year high last month have had far to fall.
GoghGoner wrote:Chicago better freeze soon or you will have to pay folks to use natural gas. I do think inventories will fall like a rock once winter kicks in (I like T's blob theory) but this radicalized weather can really throw a wrench in the works.
EIA: Amount of natural gas in storage reaches new record
ROCKMAN wrote:T - "Unfortunately if the trend flip flops and goes 10 under the rest of the winter...". From your lips to Dog's ear. LOL.
America’s on Track to Export a Record Volume of Shale Gas in November
November 18, 2016 by Bloomberg
By Jim Polson
(Bloomberg) — The U.S. is set to export a record number of cargoes of shale gas this month.
Nine liquefied natural gas tankers have departed or are scheduled to leave Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal in November, already the most for any month since exports began in February, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and Genscape Inc.
The exports follow a massive shale boom in the U.S. that’s unleashed a flood of gas supplies from the Marcellus and Utica in the east to the Eagle Ford in Texas. The country is on course to become a net exporter of natural gas next year, a stark turnaround from just a decade ago when it was facing a shortage.
“The continental U.S. becoming a net natural gas exporter is a milestone of the U.S. energy revolution and transition to ‘energy independence,’” Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
The Sabine Pass complex in Louisiana has exported 40 cargoes totaling about 6.5 million cubic meters of LNG since February, Zach Allen, president of Pan Eurasian Enterprises, said in a research note.
Cheniere, which became the nation’s first and only exporter of shale gas in February, was cleared by U.S. regulators last month to start loading tankers from a second plant at Sabine Pass.
Cheniere didn’t immediately return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment.
I have seen statements to the effect that very old natural gas wells in tight shale are still producing at a modest rate 50 or more years after they were initially completed.
Is that true? If it is not true then the rest of this is not relevant.
Presuming it is true, a fracked well in shale has the same rapid decline rate curve (or near enough) to the decline curve we see in all those fracked light tight oil wells that have come online in the last decade. Does that decline curve turn into a very long duration moderate rate production for decades after initial decline? Or does the well lose economic value quickly?
ROCKMAN wrote:I've drilled the New Albany Shale in KY. Supposedly the oldest US NG play. And all vertical wells. It's very unique among even other shales. Most, if not all, of the methane is molecularly bound to organic matter. As it is produced, sometime with a bit of dewatering, the lower pressure causes instability which breaks those bonds. As a result not only can such wells produce for 50+ years but over decades the production rate will actually increase slightly.
That's the good news. The bad news: the NAS wells tend to be very !ow rate producers: 150 MCF/day is considered great. And those long lived wells: eventually 20 to 30 MCF/day. The biggest problem is pipeline infrastructure: difficult to invest in pipelines to capture such small wells. Probably tens to hundreds of thousands of potentially commercial wells except for those pipeline costs. I tried to develop unmanned well head gas-fired skid mounted electric generators since power lines are much more common. But between resistant power companies and expensive equipment could not talk any operator into giving it a try.
Really cheap to drill, Doc: a 2-man air rig: all it cost was drill bits and diesel. So easy to tell when you hit the NAS: so organic that returns blowing into the air looked like an oil fire. Actually had a deputy sheriff come off the highway one day thinking we had a bad fire.
Sub - Yep: the NAS runs across a good bit of Appalachia and a faid ways west. I mentioned before finding a 20' thick NG reservoir at 46' in a deeper well. Even though I have the well connected to a pipeline I'll never complete: too expense to compress it to a high enough pressure (600 psi) to get it into the sales line. The reservoir is also in my PVC cased waterr well 80' away. Normally I give the water wells to the surface owner when I plug the lease. But not this time: no amount of paper wouild ever clear me of potential liability if he blew himserlf up. But I will tell him its there when I give the lease back.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests