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PeakOil is You

THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby tita » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 09:04:30

Yoshua - NG storage and transport is a bit more difficult than with liquids such oil. This is the reason why we have such differences in price from various marketplaces (North America, Europe, Asia). This is also the reason why the use of NG was linked to the deployment of gas pipelines network. Heating, electricity generation, domestic use. Transport is also possible, but it represents 1% (22 million) of the total cars in the world (and almost nothing in US)

Oil and NG doesn't compete on the same markets. Cheaper NG (for the same BTU) may replace some oil usage where it is possible, but has never much eroded the main market of oil, transportation (although it was much cheaper than oil). Look at KSA, who produce electricity from oil (50%).

So, the price can't be compared just on an equivalent BTU base.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 11:23:28

Rockman & tita - thanks for the responses. NG is perhaps not the answer to the oil price collapse after all, at least not at this point in time. Well... it was worth a try. Perhaps in the future...

NG has on the other hand taken over a large market share from coal in electricity production in the US, (as mentioned by Roccosaurus). The coal price has tanked... but then again all commodity prices have tanked in last years.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 14:05:28

There is only one word you need to know while listening to the oil and gas retards: BANKRUPT.

They have no idea what is going on.
EV's are fuel-less automobiles and Thorium Reactors are fuel-less reactors. Perfect.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 15:29:41

Y - "The coal price has tanked...". Hmm...I guess you haven't noticed coal prices have doubled in less the a year. From the Financial Times:

"Australian thermal coal, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has hit $100 a tonne for the first time since 2012, cementing its status as the best performing commodity of the year. A 25,000 tonne cargo of high grade material for November delivery changed hands on GlobalCoal, a physical trading platform, for $100 a tonne on Tuesday. The deal means benchmark prices in Asia have now doubled since June, a move that has wrong-footed analysts and traders as China has moved to curb its domestic output of the fuel.

Thermal coal is used to generate electricity in power stations and traders have been forced to scramble to find cargoes. This year’s rally has ended a five-year bear market that saw prices fall to around $40 a tonne and boosted the share prices of big producers such as Glencore and Whitehaven."

It would appear the "King Coal is dead" gang are current being chased by coal zombies. LOL.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 15:40:33

Y - "NG has...taken over a large market share from coal in electricity production in the US..." Yes: good news but coal still generates as much e- as NG. The not so good news: GHG production from burning NG has increased 20% in the last 10 years while the decline in US coal consumption has stopped and hit a plateau the last few years with a very slight increase in the latest 12 month stat from the EIA.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 16:54:05

Rockman - The commodity index might have reached the bottom and is now perhaps rising again, or at least stabilizing. The commodity index from 2000 to 2016 looks like a bubble though. So I doubt it will reach those level again (but what do I know, I have bought or sold a commodity). The rise of China and its hunger for commodities was behind the bubble ? China has now started a new round of economic stimulus and is again behind the rise of the commodity prices. The Chinese economy is a bubble ? The Chinese economy seems to confuse every expert... so who knows ?
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 16:56:24

Correction : So I doubt it will reach those levels again (but what do I know, I have never bought or sold a commodity).
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby sparky » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 17:13:37

.
If one observe the "conventional " crude peak production ,
it become evident extraction will slide toward the lighter , heavier and further production

-lighter is the condensates up to natural gas
-heavier are the extra heavy sour fields up to bituminous deposits
-further are the far offshore , polar and very deep drilling

all of those are already used and have been to some degree for a good while
it should be noted some interaction between the lights and heavies
the former being used as dillutant for the later .

for the further , the deeper one drill the bigger the probability of finding gas rather than oil
there is some boundary of which I would like to know more ,
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 19:42:48

sparky wrote:.
for the further , the deeper one drill the bigger the probability of finding gas rather than oil
there is some boundary of which I would like to know more ,


http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/topogeo/eco ... /index.htm
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 19:58:58

Y - "The commodity index might have reached the bottom and is now perhaps rising again, or at least stabilizing." Are you talking about some general all inclusive "commodity index" or are you referring to coal?
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 20:21:27

As far as depth providing more gas probability versus oil, I believe the Tiber field in the GOM is at 35,000'?
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 20:42:16

Sparky - As far as the "oil generation window" it isn't so much depth dependent but temperature dependent. And while the stability of oil in a reservoir decrease as depth/temperature increases it really isn't that straight forward. Other factors contribute to oil degradation. The good news: once enough wells are drilled in an area the relationship holds steady. I'm drilling wells in Mississippi where I produce oil at 17,000'. And areas in S Texas where not only no oil below 9,000, the NG is as dry (no condensate) as a "popcorn fart". Yes...that's an accepted oil patch characterisation...popcorn fart.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby sparky » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 21:03:49

.
Thanks for the answer , a quick check gave some truly impressive dept for oil wells
and I take your point about temperature being the critical boundary

I'm just waiting for someone to write ...then again , It all depend !
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby sparky » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 21:17:48

.
I've found this lovely old book , Basics of reservoir engineering , it has a simple graph which even a tyro like me can understand ,


https://books.google.com.au/books?id=Z1 ... en&f=false
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 22:28:49

There are some very good books on the source, maturation, generation and migration of hydrocarbons. Some that are more high level and others that are extremely techincial requiring a bit of understanding regarding organic geochemistry and the equation for fluid flow.

One I often point people towards who are interested is

Tissot, B.P. and Welte, D.H., 1978. Petroleum Formation and Occurrence. Springer Verlag. 538 pp.

one of the better papers that describes pretty much everything you might want to know by Doug Waples:

Waples. D., 1980. Time and Temperature in Petroleum Formation: Applications of Lopatin’s Method to Petroleum Exploration. AAPG, V64. P 916-926

Probably a good primer on the subject is found here:
http://www.mhnederlof.nl/petroleumsystem.html
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 22:46:01

Sparky - And that "biogenic CH4" in that chart: wanna sound like one of us oil field hands...we call it "swamp gas". LOL.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 03:26:46

Rockman - Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes both Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/? ... months=360
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 06:28:52

Coffee - 35,000' or 31,000' below the midline...not clear from the press releases. But still very deep. More important pretty dang hot...350° or so and perhaps as high as 20,000 psi. I couldn't find actual test info so not sure what the gas/oil ratio might be: sloppy writers swing back and forth between bbls and bbls equivalents. Also no weight reported...just "light oil" which I assume is condensate. Also implications of rather low recover expectations based on experience with other fields in the trend. Just a guess but sounds like a gas/condensate reservoir with a pressure depletion drive. Recovery guesses are 5% to 20%. The billions of bbls numbers tossed around appear to be in place reserves and not recoverable. But still a lot of oil.

No indication of what they'll do with the NG: reinject or flare. But sounds like hundreds of bcf will come up with the oil. Back to the temperature issue. From researching the developing concepts is that oil degradation is more complex the just a function of temp although it is still a limiting factor.

The mechanical engineering complexity is huge. An entire new generation of equipment has to be developed. Another company trying to produce a similar high temp/pressure reservoir spent $250 million on its first well and couldn't produce it. And it was in 20' of water...not 4,000' like Tiber. And while the reserves at Tiber truly are huge there's some indication it will be at least 5 years before production begins and it might not be at an initial rate above 100,000 bopd.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 06:34:09

Y - Thanks. Was confused because I couldn't see how you were relating oil prices to the huge increase in coal prices.
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Re: natural gas production

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 07:43:18

Rock man
Thanks for the info.
Before I posted, I also did some checking because I recalled a bit of the hype surrounding the Deepwater Horizon having accomplushed the drilling.
The write-ups were the normal jumble of 'almost accurate' descriptions.
Whether 30,000' or 35,000', pretty deep.
Regarding temperature and hydrocarbon formation, for years the consensus seemed that any gas in the so-called Deep Utica (areas of PA and WV over 12/14,000' deep), would not be present as it would have cooked off.
This is increasingly being shown to be inaccurate as productive Utica wells are coming online in North Central, Central, and South west Pennsylvania and WV in depths approaching 14,000'.
This is adding significant amounts of prospective acreage for future development.

Hope things are going well for you, RM.
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