The confusion comes in when civilians start repeating boe's and forget the e and use bo. And notice how distorted the price per Btu varies over relative short periods of time: 54:1 to 12:1. Really messes with the overall cost of energy conversations.
one has to keep this all in context of a number of years ago when natural gas was spiking at $14/Mcf in the Eastern seaboard. I've pointed out that some of the Marcellus is sitting at a breakeven of $2 - $2.50/Mcf and Montney at as low as $0.65/Mcf. That means the netback before tax would be around $11.75/Mcf on average for the Marcellus and around $13.30/Mcf for Montney. On a given well pad that produces lets say 10 mmcf/d that would equate to net cash flow of around $42 MM.
At a $50/bbl price with a $30/bbl breakeven the equivalent bbls (1794 bopd) production would have a value of around $12 MM. For the two to be in sinc from a price and BTU perspective you would need net back per bbl of around $65/bbl or about $95/bbl oil price FOB for this scenario.
Predictions are for a very cold wintery few months this year in the Eastern seaboard. If that is the case and given gas storage is not full then it wouldn't be surprising to see gas prices spike to $4 - $5/Mcf which would bring gas and oil back in line on a BTU/price basis if oil continues to hover in the $50.
Right now we are in a situation that oil price netback favors value/BTU over natural gas but it could easily swing the other way if oil prices stay low. That being said you would need natural gas prices to be close to $10/Mcf in order to balance out with oil at $75/bbl. To my mind it is easier to see a $75/bbl oil price being stable for sometime in North America versus a $10/Mcf natural gas price, especially when you take into consideration that LNG shipped to Japan is selling for around $6.50/Mcf currently.
So I guess I'm trying to make two important points. It is netback pricing (i.e. commodity price minus all costs to produce and ship) that is important not just the commodity price and that in order for natural gas and oil to be balanced on both a BTU and value basis you would need gas prices to rise to levels that are unikey sustainable for any amount of time given the amount of economic tight gas still sitting in the ground and the ability to import LNG with a bit of investment.