The Natural Gas Price Watch Thread

[frankthetank]

This guy thinks so...i guess we won't know until spring! it wouldn't be shocking after the large crude drop/relative mild weather so far.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6657790/

a snippet...

Porter Bennett has spent decades gathering information on the oil and gas industry.

Now, the Evergreen resident is flying in the face of conventional wisdom with his latest observation: Natural gas production across the United States is rising and prices are heading for a crash -- fast.

"Nobody else believes him," said Kyle Cooper, an energy futures analyst in Houston with Citigroup Global Markets, when told of Bennett's studies and predictions.

"But I actually agree that the supply-demand balance isn't tight at all. I do concur with him that if this winter is even normal [in terms of temperatures], we have a lot of gas. If it's warmer than normal, we have a whole lot of gas. The supply-demand balance is bearish."

...

[BabyPeanut]

"But I actually agree that the supply-demand balance isn't tight at all.

So why is the price high? Why are there blackouts in the last few years like never before in history? Why is Philadelphia Gas Works murdering the poor for a change?

[small_steps]

price crash, rather hard to fathom given the flat production or decline in north america NG, when there has been an all out push to drill for it

[thebear]

Decline was for? I have noticed a trend Bloomberg News and CNBC are always late to the party! Most times we need to do opposite of what they say! Crude is the most manipulated market out there! These hedge funds are manipulating it, saying that they think $35 a barrel! bs, and now all of a sudden they have folks on the new shows that will predict $60 of barrel. We must remember that supplies are constrained. Sure in the very short-term supply is bearish, Asian demand, etc

[small_steps]

Check out these spot NG prices:
http://www.theice.com/dailyIndices/gasIndex.html

Esp the east section, was $6-8$ last thursday.
Its not good to be at the end of the pipe!

[Laurasia]

Seems to have gone up a bit, eh? We at work were just talking about how our latest natural gas bills have basically doubled. Of course, having a long cold snap just before Christmas didn't help, but even so, it would not explain increases like we've just seen. Your chart DOES explain!

Regards,

L.

[Kingcoal]

Boy I'm glad I heat with fuel oil... oh yeah, that's expensive also. We play this game every winter in the northeast USA.

[Ludi]

I'm glad we heat with wood.

[EnviroEngr]

I'm glad I heat with...
fissionable materials. Very high yield. Heavy but hot.

Who set me up for that?

[frankthetank]

I'm glad i'm freezing my ass off because my last bill was over double the bill before it. i heat with NG. I like it because i feel its about the best thing out there, in terms of emissions, but i can foresee a wood stove in the very near future. very near!

Not good considering we still have a solid 2months or more of winter left.

I have a feeling 5 years from now these prices might be low. One thing most won't do is compromise on heating, like they might on driving/taking vacations.

[Ludi]

Our power bill was $40 last month, how does this compare with those of you who heat with petroleum products?

[No-Oil]

Our power bill was $40 last month, how does this compare with those of you who heat with petroleum products?

Yeah but that's because you are in the minority, as a previous poster just noted, if his bills get much higher, he will be fitting a wood stove ! Then your bills will rise as quickly as everyone elses ! That's when you'll know the peak has arrived.

the balance of supply & demand will always win out. If gas gets too expensive, then some will move away from it, this will reduce the demand & the cost for those left on that fuel. But those on the changed to fuel will see an increase in their fuel costs due to the new increased demand.

Chris W.

[BabyPeanut]

Our power bill was $40 last month, how does this compare with those of you who heat with petroleum products?

By "power bill" are you referring to just wood?

I don't pay for oil heat from month-to-month. I have a 275 gallon tank which is filled three or four times a year. Since I found out about Peak Oil I have taken steps to conserve oil which has brought down my usage quite a bit I think. It will take time before I have a clear picture of what has happened.

The last two years average out to $97 and $96 dollars a month.

[BabyPeanut]

The last two years average out to $97 and $96 dollars a month.

This includes a service contract. Without that it's $81 and $77 a month.

[Ludi]

By "power bill" are you referring to just wood?

Sorry, I should have been more specific. I mean our electric bill - we use some electricity for heating (space heaters). We don't buy wood. I'm not sure how much gasoline we've used in the chainsaw so far this season, but it hasn't been much for firewood (we also use the chainsaw for clearing brush). This should be the first year the woodstove will be "free" - that is, it's paid for itself by now in saved electricity costs.

[frankthetank]

Thats it ... i'm investing in a chainsaw !

$40...month....are you in the north? I'm in WI...so maybe that makes a big difference... I've had a good 10 nights with temps below -10F...and more below 0F...

i've switched over to an electric oil filled heater for the bedroom (kept on low of course!) and turned the heat down in the rest of the house...keeping my hopes that may help ease the pain

I've got access to 60Acres (family owned) of mostly hardwoods (mainly oak) that would become my source of wood...it an hour drive, but it'll still be worth it.

[BabyPeanut]

I've been cutting back on electricity for a long time now.

Code: Select all

Year   kWh   Price
2001  13187   $887.00
2002  11381 $1,068.43
2003  10687   $842.50
2004   8761   $815.53

Mostly technological improvements have brough down the usage.

[linlithgowoil]

look at these prices http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

how come the new york city gate price is up 66%? and anyway, what are these different prices for?

[BabyPeanut]

what are these different prices for?

http://r0.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/gas/prices.htm

Spot markets are generally created in areas with concentration of buyers and sellers as pipeline interconnections located close to large consuming regions or major terminals of gas producing countries. Spot prices are then set at various locations. Main references for spot prices in North America are: New York City Gate, Henry Hub Louisiana, Chicago City Gate, Katy Hub Texas, So. Calif. Border or AECO Hub (Canada).

[BabyPeanut]

how come the new york city gate price is up 66%?

High demand?