The Natural Gas Price Watch Thread

[Cyrus]

I have also read that the Nat Gas looses energy density when it goes through the process which LNG entails.

[Antimatter]

I have also read that the Nat Gas looses energy density when it goes through the process which LNG entails.

No, methane is methane is methane. There are small changes depending on how 'wet' the gas is (ethane, propane, butane etc content) but these are usualyl stripped out anyway because they are more valuable sold seperatly.

[BabyPeanut]

Sidenote on Appropriations Bill: Federal Control of LNG Terminal Sites (link)
27 November 2004

Congress embedded a provision in the omnibus spending bill that gives support to the federal government over the states when it comes to siting Liquefied Natural Gas terminals.

On March 24, 2004, FERC issued a declaratory order asserting exclusive jurisdiction over the approval and siting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. FERC concluded that LNG terminals are engaged in foreign commerce and, as such, fall clearly within the authority granted to the FERC under Section 3 of the Natural Gas Act of 1938.

The conferees agree on this point and disagree with the position of at least one State government agency that it should be the authority responsible for LNG terminal siting within its boundaries, rather than the FERC.

The Natural Gas Act clearly preempts States on matters of approving and siting natural gas infrastructure associated with interstate and foreign commerce. These facilities need one clear process for review, approval, and siting decisions. Because LNG terminals affect both interstate and foreign commerce, LNG facility development requires a process that also looks at the national public interest, and not just the interests of one State.

The conferees recognize that, as a matter of energy supply, the nation will need to expand its LNG infrastructure over the decades to come to satisfy natural gas demand. Any dispute of LNG siting jurisdictional authority now will be counterproductive to meeting our natural gas needs in the future.

That one State referred to is California, and the issue in question is the construction of an LNG terminal off of Long Beach.

LNG terminals are becoming the NIMBY issue—at least for select coastal communities—of the coming years. With the state of natural gas—i.e., domestic production peaking in 1973, the import gap increasing, prices finding a new floor and looking to continue their steady increases, and steadily increasing demand, LNG terminals will become critical to the short- to medium-term energy supply mix in the US. Congress recognizes this, and the federal government is setting it up to brook no interference. The language in this provision is about as blunt as it gets.

The chart to the left plots natural gas production and consumption in the US with data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The chart to the right plots the wellhead price, using data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Prices further down the distribution chain increase. For example, in the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, the wellhead price for August 2004 was $5.36/thousand cubic feet, the industrial price was $6.19 and the residential price $13.78.

[frankthetank]

They better figure something out quick...if this hurricane makes a NW move in its latter stages, then one might want to head to the California deserts for winter and screw heating with NG!

Current price was 12.45 the last i checked. OUCH!

[pilferage]

The CA deserts actually get colder during the winter. The closer you are to the coast, the smaller your temperature range is. My grandparents living in Orange County don't get as hot or cold as my mom living in Yucca Valley.

[BabyPeanut]

The price of crude is volatile, shooting up to $70/barrel then down again but natural gas futures have not come down much at all since the Katrina-induced spike.

Officials predict home-energy crisis as winter heating bills skyrocket (link) Tues, 20 Sep 2005
BY TIMOTHY C. BARMANN Journal Staff Writer
Public officials are warning that record-high energy prices coupled with lower federal heating-assistance funding could result in a heating crisis this winter for low-income and elderly people.
"There is an imminent emergency confronting millions of low-income Americans unable to afford the cost of rising energy prices," said Sen. Jack Reed, D-Rhode Island, in a letter to the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Federal officials are forecasting an expensive winter. The Energy Information Administration, the statistical branch of the U.S. Department of Energy, predicts heating oil to be between 29 percent and 33 percent higher this winter than last winter, and natural gas to be 52 percent higher than last winter.
The state Public Utilities Commission is now considering rate increases for electricity and natural gas that combined, would cost a typical Rhode Island family an extra $370 a year.
Reed, Governor Carcieri and Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty are calling on Congress and President Bush to raise the amount of federal money set aside for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP.

Funding for the program, which provides grants to households with annual incomes below certain levels, now stands at about $2 billion, similar to last year.
The state's Energy Office administers the LIHEAP program in Rhode Island, through several community action program offices.
Rhode Island's share of the federal funding for this winter is between $12.2 million and $13.2 million, according to Matteo Guglielmetti, who heads the LIHEAP program in the State Energy Office. Last year, the state received $15.2 million, he said.

Reed also called for Congress to set aside more money for "weatherization" programs, which help pay for improvements to make houses more energy efficient.
At a news conference yesterday at the Cranston home of Aram A. Ohanian, Reed and representatives from the state Energy Office and community action programs, called attention to the looming crisis for low-income families.
"In winter, we call it the heat-or-eat dilemma," said Darlene Lemoi, weatherization program director for West Bay Community Action.

Many people will be faced with the difficult choice of paying for food or paying their heating bills, she said.
About 35 percent of Rhode Island households are occupied by low-income senior citizens, said Ralph Groves Jr., who oversees the weatherization program in the state Energy Office.
Ohanian, 88, said he received a total of $600 last year in LIHEAP grants. His monthly income is $779 in Social Security payments.

Money is so tight, Ohanian said, he sometimes eats at his daughter's house, or goes to a local soup kitchen for food. He also gets help from a food bank managed by the Comprehensive Community Action Program in Cranston.
Ohanian also received a free energy audit last year, which is also funded through the LIHEAP program. Inspectors found his house had no insulation, so grant money paid to insulate it and to tune up the heating system.
Groves said he expects the improvements will substantially reduce energy consumption in the house.

The weatherization program is available to those who also qualify for federal heating assistance. However, there is a long waiting list -- from 6 months to 18 months in some communities.
Some states are trying to come up with extra money for heating assistance. For example, Vermont is considering taking $1.7 million from a budget surplus and transferring $3.5 million from the state's weatherization trust fund to help low-income families pay heating bills this winter.
Timothy C. Barmann covers energy issues, utilities and technology. He can be reached at tbarmann [at] projo.com

[frankthetank]

GOod name change mod...it needed that!


NAtgas is now over 13 with current 13.20...this cane better stay away from infrastructure or us in the midwest will most likely have a very hard winter!

[BabyPeanut]

GOod name change mod...it needed that!

Thanks. All it takes is doing an edit to the first post in the thread and changing the subject line.

[Cyrus]

13.150 and rising.

[sol]

$15.43 @0330 UTC you'se mob are going to get a little chilly this winter

[small_steps]

Spot prices for a variety of hubs around the U.S: link

Futures prices (HH): link

LDCs are scrambling to fill storage for this winter, and linepack has taken a nasty downward turn the past few days...
Makes $10 look damned cheap, and post Rita, this will look cheap, and this fucking winter....
May god help you find the insulation at your nearest lumberyard calling your name in the coming weeks.

[seb]

Ooopppsss!

Henry hub gas price.

[advancedatheist]

The CA deserts actually get colder during the winter. The closer you are to the coast, the smaller your temperature range is. My grandparents living in Orange County don't get as hot or cold as my mom living in Yucca Valley.

I used to live near the Victor Valley region in San Bernardino County, elevation around 4,000 feet. California's high desert does have freezing temperatures in the winter, occasionally even some snow.

[frankthetank]

up 74bcf

link

[Grimnir]

I talked to my utility company and they told me they already have more than enough natural gas in their private stores to last through the winter, even if production/imports from the Gulf were cut off completely. Things could still get very expensive, but I don't think we're in imminent danger of actual blackouts where I live.

[BabyPeanut]

[BabyPeanut]

US Henry Hub nat gas pipeline has leak - governor (link) Sun Sep 25, 2005
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The gas pipeline that links to the Henry Hub delivery point for U.S. natural gas contracts has a leak due to damage sustained from Hurricane Rita, the governor of Louisiana said on Sunday.
"We understand there is a gas leak and ... a possible shearing of an oil storage tank," Gov. Kathleen Blanco told CNN television channel in the United States.

More at web site.

[BabyPeanut]

In the eye of a storm: natural-gas price surge (link) By MARY-BETH McLAUGHLIN BLADE BUSINESS WRITER
Bob Eyre of Ohio Gas Co. in Bryan says his "crystal ball has duct tape on it," but he knows he made the right call when buying natural gas for this winter.
Starting in April, Mr. Eyre locked in at lower rates about two-thirds of the gas he will need this winter for 46,000 customers in the northwest section of Ohio, so he will be able to charge $1.11 per 100 cubic feet for the foreseeable future. ...skip...
The hurricanes, the latest blow to an industry reeling from increasing prices, help put in focus how gas utilities purchase supplies and what, if anything, can be done to protect consumers from price spikes.

Pricing is of particular interest in northwest Ohio, where many residents typically have paid rates that are among the highest in the state.
Columbia Gas of Ohio, the dominant natural-gas utility in Toledo, its suburbs, and several nearby counties, with 250,000 customers, asked the Public Utilities of Commission of Ohio this month for permission to charge $1.32 per 100 cubic feet of gas next month, up 45 percent from a year ago. Smaller utilities in the region, with rare exceptions, are charging less than that.
The reasons range from the higher amount of the heating fuel that Columbia Gas buys on the spot market to some utilities' ability to purchase gas through pipelines not available to Columbia Gas.

An average bill next month, based on the requested rate and typical use of 3,000 cubic feet of gas, will be $53, up from $40 a year ago.
Last January, in the height of the heating season, when the Columbia Gas rate was less than $1 per 100 cubic feet, the typical bill was $214 for an average use of 17,000 cubic feet.
That would be nearly $60 higher at the current rate, but by winter, the rate is likely to be higher. ...
Trying to show that metro Toledo residents aren't being singled out for higher rates, Columbia Gas spokesman Ray Frank said, "The rates or the costs for the gas in Toledo are no higher than in the Cleveland area, Columbus, or the southern part of the state."

But in the latest comparison compiled by state regulators, the Columbia Gas rates were noticeably higher than those elsewhere in Ohio. And, the difference between the company's October price and those of many other northwest Ohio utilities is larger than it was last November, when The Blade did a similar comparison.
Waterville Gas & Oil Co. is charging its 4,700 customers 80 cents per 100 cubic feet in October, or nearly 40 percent less than Columbia Gas, whose service territory abuts the tiny suburban Toledo utility's.
Rob Black, president of the Waterville utility, declined comment on Columbia Gas. But he said his company locked in a portion of its winter gas at lower rates before Katrina hit the Gulf Coast, interrupteding some natural gas supplies and prompting a nationwide boost in wholesale fuel prices.

He said he expects his November rate to rise substantially. Experts anticipate Columbia Gas also will also seek a sizable boost.
Mike Poole, an officer of Arlington Natural Gas Co. in Van Buren, said his company will charge its 2,000 customers $1.35 per 100 cubic feet in October. But the figure is considerably lower than Columbia Gas' because it includes transmission and other costs, which add more than 20 cents per 100 cubic feet to Columbia Gas customers' bills.
"The prices now are higher than everything we've ever seen," said Mr. Poole, the fourth-generation executive of a company founded in the 1880s.

He bought some fuel early in the summer but held off buying more because he thought prices would go down as they have in previous summers.
He was wrong, and now fears his charge will go to $1.70 per 100 cubic feet.

More at web site.

[OilsNotWell]

Here's an interesting graph:
[img=350x263]http://www.elliottwave.com/images/globalwrap/natgas_annavg.gif[/img]
Let's see...1960 to 2005. $0.10 to $13.00
12,999% percent increase? Heck of a way to beat inflation...
In other words, a $1.00 worth of NG in 1960, would be worth $12,999 today. Do I have that right? A measly $76.93 invested in NG in 1960, and I'd be a millionaire today!

[BabyPeanut]

A measly $76.93 invested in NG in 1960, and I'd be a millionaire today!

You'd need a big container to hold $76.93 of 1960 NG.