jamest wrote:hardtootell wrote:Denny wrote:hardtootell wrote:
Anyone want to speculate (or calculate) when Canada will become a net importer?
And, for Canada to become a net importer, it would need some neighboring country to be a next exporter. I can't see that happening. Unless North America goes big time into LNG imports. Sky high prices then.
From my reading and calculations, I predict that Canada will become a net importer w/in 5 yrs. There is one LNG port in New Brunswick that I know of. The rest would come through US LNG ports after being exported from Russia, Iraq, Iran or Qatar. I doubt that there is presently enough capacity at the ports to supply the projected shortfall. So- Canadians I hope you will sleep well knowing that your very survival depends on nations with pretty spotty histories of fair play when it comes to trade. Wake the F%%K up!
I invite fact backed discussion and challenges to my assumptions.
Sounds like a good argument for construction of the Alaska gas pipeline to Calgary, as well as for accelerated development of the conventional reserve in the Mackenzie Delta, and accelerated research on development of gas hydrates in the same area. There are also significant shale gas reserves in the Horn River Basin.
I imagine that all of these projects are uneconomic at current prices, but they are probably cheaper and more secure than imported LNG. It would be prudent to begin preliminary work, if they can find a way to fund it.
Yes- I have heard of all these possibilities.
This paper describes the Horn Delta:
http://www.woodmacresearch.com/content/ ... dasgas.pdf
and while it does say that 18-31 tcf could be extractable, it won't breakeven below $US 6.5/mcf. Which is about $2 above our present price...
If the Mckenzie delta project is any indication, it will never happen or be delayed until we have severe shortages. Again I ask- what is the energy rate of return? How much NG is available best case? I assume it will be more sour than the conventional gas we are using up. Matt Simmons (not known for his optimism) has said there may not be enough alloying elements left to handle this gas in it's corrosive natural state.
If David Hughes (Geoloigst w Natural resources Canada) is lurking out there somewhere- please step up.