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THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Invite Michael C. Lynch to "Ask The Experts" forum

Unread postby Whitecrab » Fri 20 Aug 2004, 21:07:43

When you throw out all the "abiotic oil"s and "the economy can grow forever!" people, you're still left with a few decent arguments about the peak's validity as a modelling tool. Perhaps the most outspoken anti-peak person is Michael C. Lynch.

So, if he's available and willing, maybe Mr. Lynch would like to be a part of the experts section? I know it's inviting flames from the childish, but it's always good to take stock of valid criticisms about modelling accuracy. Although I'm not sure I'd want to bother with getting locked into a debate with internet converts, if I were him.

*Starts imagining Campbell and Lynch becoming the next Matt & Jay. :lol: *
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Unread postby nero » Sat 21 Aug 2004, 16:38:12

I second the motion,

Hopefully we are going to have moderators weed out disrespectful questions. I would feel sure we could come up with some intelligent questions, that are not argumentative.
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Unread postby Ben » Tue 07 Sep 2004, 22:28:37

I think Lynch is a professional troll -- it's his job to talk down oil prices all the time. When you boil down his arguments, it comes down to the fact that he believes there is 20 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in the world, and we won't peak until 2200-2300.

Really either he's crazy or we are.
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Unread postby davidyson » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 11:47:43

Anyway, troll or not - let's have all the sceptics here so they can lay down their argument.

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Taking Lynch note...

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 18:47:41

After I get the others rolling, I'll check out the M.Lynch lead.
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[Questions for: Michael C. Lynch]

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 20:02:17

No promises here.
Last edited by EnviroEngr on Wed 16 Nov 2005, 16:40:04, edited 2 times in total.
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Unread postby Aaron » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 21:55:24

of course not...
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Unread postby StayOnTarget » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 22:08:58

Whatever happened to the debate that was supposed to happen at the SPE conference in Houston this past Sept???

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1894.html+lynch

I haven't been able to find anything about it.... maybe it didn't happen after all.


:cry:
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Biography

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 22:42:12

Biography

Michael C. Lynch

Image

Mr. Lynch has over twenty years of experience analyzing international energy, particularly oil and gas markets. He has numerous publications in four languages and speaks regularly at international conferences. He is the primary author of Global Petroleum SEER and Global Petroleum Outlook, which provide short- and long-term oil market analyses.

Mr. Lynch's previous work has included computer modeling of the world oil market and estimation of the economics of supply for both world oil and natural gas, including LNG supply, and market behavior under normal and disrupted conditions. He has also given testimony and advice to committees of the U.S. Congress and the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.

Before coming to Strategic Energy & Economic Consulting , Inc., Mr. Lynch was Vice President of Oil Services at WEFA, Inc. Prior to coming to WEFA he was Director, Asian Energy and Security, at the Center for International Studies, M.I.T., as well as a Lecturer in the Diplomatic Training Program at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. Prior to that, he held a number of research positions at M.I.T., as well as serving as a senior associate for the Washington International Energy Group. His work consisted primarily of advising corporations, governments and industry associations on world oil and gas markets and energy security policy.

http://www.energyseer.com/MikeLynch.html
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Lynch/
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Invite

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 22:43:02

Invitation sent 10/21/04 @ 2140.
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SPE Debate

Unread postby Mike_Lynch_gst » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 07:51:46

StayOnTarget wrote:Whatever happened to the debate that was supposed to happen at the SPE conference in Houston this past Sept???

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1894.html+lynch

I haven't been able to find anything about it.... maybe it didn't happen after all.


:cry:



Yes, it is now online at www.spe.org.
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Biography - Michael C. Lynch

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 10:43:43

Biography

Michael C. Lynch has over twenty years of experience analyzing international energy, particularly oil and gas markets. He has numerous publications in four languages and speaks regularly at international conferences. He is the primary author of Global Petroleum SEER and Global Petroleum Outlook, which provide short- and long-term oil market analyses.

Mr. Lynch's previous work has included computer modeling of the world oil market and estimation of the economics of supply for both world oil and natural gas, including LNG supply, and market behavior under normal and disrupted conditions. He has also given testimony and advice to committees of the U.S. Congress and the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.

Before coming to Strategic Energy & Economic Consulting , Inc., Mr. Lynch was Vice President of Oil Services at WEFA, Inc. Prior to coming to WEFA he was Director, Asian Energy and Security, at the Center for International Studies, M.I.T., as well as a Lecturer in the Diplomatic Training Program at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. Prior to that, he held a number of research positions at M.I.T., as well as serving as a senior associate for the Washington International Energy Group. His work consisted primarily of advising corporations, governments and industry associations on world oil and gas markets and energy security policy.

http://www.energyseer.com/MikeLynch.html
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Unread postby StayOnTarget » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 19:23:48

Yes, it is now online at www.spe.org.
Mike Lynch


Thanks Mike!


All the videos are presented here:

http://www.webcasting.com/houston/


Each persons video presentation is here. I'm looking forward to watching. Unfortunately I'm at my mother in-laws this weeked and will not be able to check it out till Monday.


Regards,
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Welcome

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Tue 02 Nov 2004, 21:57:49

Welcome to Mike Lynch as new forum member!

Let us Moderators, Admins or me know if you need help navigating, et. al.
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Unread postby Aaron » Wed 03 Nov 2004, 08:58:14

Indeed,

And a special note of thanks to EnviroEngr for all his hard work.

Greetings & welcome to Mr. Lynch.

We remain dedicated to promoting a balanced approach to educating and exploring our worlds energy issues and Mr. Lynch certainly contributes to the debate.

It is most encouraging to see experienced and intelligent people like Mr. Lynch participate in this effort with the same goal we have here @ PO.com

Exploring the issues.

We intend to remain bias-neutral in this important debate, and hope to serve as a beacon of information for the international community.

Thanks again to everyone for your important contributions.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Peter Odell

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Sun 05 Dec 2004, 16:47:44

Mike,

I see from reading Peter Odell's book, I will have some questions for you. Stay tuned.

Also, if your login isn't working, let me know.

Thanks.
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M.Lynch 07-DEC-04

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Tue 07 Dec 2004, 16:12:24

I can transcribe the posts from here or just simply reference them for later comment.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic2274-60.html#27487
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Mike's Skepticism

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Fri 10 Dec 2004, 16:30:39

To stimulate some discussion and asking of questions, here are some excerpts from Mike's line of argumentation:

[color=blue]The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)

Michael C. Lynch

Recently, numerous publications have appeared warning that oil production is near an unavoidable, geologically-determined peak that could have consequences up to and including “war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiensâ€
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Cross Ref z + 1

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Thu 27 Jan 2005, 14:07:56

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Open Lynch Challenge

Unread postby seahorse » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 23:39:54

Anyone familiar with the peak oil debate is also familiar with Michael Lynch. Lynch is a well known antagonist to men like Mathew Simmons, Campbell and the like, who are deemed by Lynch to be "pessimists."

Although Lynch is critical of the way in which peak oil "pessimists" reach their conclusions, Lynch himself has never stepped up to the plate to document his optimistic conclusion that we have enough time.

In the interest of this extrememly important debate, I publicly challenge Lynch to "put up or shut up" as they say.

For years now, Mr. Lynch, you have been critical of the claims of Mr. Campbell, Simmons, and the like. You have repeatedly attacked the fundamentals of their opinions, basically saying their data is unreliable, scant, or unverifiable because it comes from proprietary data bases like Petroconsultants (to which you don't have access).

For too long, Mr. Lynch, you have enoyed the position of criticizing others while never putting into the public debate the basis for your "optimistic" belief that we will have enough time to develop an alternative to oil. You apparently agree that world oil production will peak some day, but you believe before that day arrives the world will transition to an alternative fuel source. Simply put, how do you arrive at this conclusion?

Your simple assurance that we will have enough time to develope an alternative to oil is not that reassuring, especially when "Oil & Gas Journal" says Peak Oil is an issue that needs serious consideration.

What is it, Mr. Lynch, that makes you believe that at some unknown date and at some unknown time world oil production will peak, but we will avoid any problems through the development of some yet unknown alternative brought about by yet unknown forces in our system? So I ask that you please come out of the grandstands and give some scientific support for your position, so that we too can be as confident as you that there is no problem.

In the interest of this very important scientific debate, I challenge you go on record and tell the world when world oil will peak. Give us a date! Your best guess. I challenge you to not only give us a time frame for your prediction of work oil peak, but do us the favor, as have Simmons and Campbell, to provide the information that forms the basis for your opinion so that your opinion can receive the same very public scientific scrutiny that Simmons, Campbell and the like have received from you.

As an attorney, I found it extremely interesting that you have financial ties to Saudi Aramco (as reported in "The Wall Street Journal"). This was interesting to me, because it shed light on possible personal bias you may have in this debate. Your contrarian position, without any supporting basis for that opinion, now makes more sense to me.

Rather than indulge your attacks, Campbell and Simmons should have long ago attacked your possible bias or motive. But, Campbell and Simmons cannot be faulted for indulging your attacks. Men like Campbell and Simmons think like the trained scientist and economist that they are, and instead of attacking your motives, they continue, in the interest of scientific debate, to justify their thesis under intense scientific scrutiny, and for that, they cannot be faulted. Are you willing to do the same? Or will you continue to shout from the grandstands?

Those of us watching the debate, who are not experts, but are forced to be the judges, have a right to question the credibility the two opposing view points - yours versus theirs. However, it is your viewpoint that has not been subjected to scientific scrutiny.

I again state the obvious that, your possible financial bias in this debate cannot be underestimated. Its not insignificant that your opinion is a simple regurgitation of Saudi Aramco's, with whom its been reported you have some shared interest. So, when weighing the two opposing opinions, that espoused by you /SaudiAramco or that espoused by Campbell/Simmons, I tend to lean to Campbell and Simmons that don't have any apparent financial ties to the Saudis.

If, Mr. Lynch, your relationship with Saudi Aramco gives you some special access to Saudi field data that has not been made public, that might be persuasive. However, interestingly and importantly, you have never claimed to have any special knowledge about Saudi field data. In fact, in none of your articles have you ever claimed to have access to any information other than what Simmons has reviewed. Interestingly still, you often chide Campbell for basing his opinions on the "proprietary" data of Petroconsultants. So, if you have no special access to Saudi data, why are they paying you? Not knowing, it leaves one to conclude that you are nothing more than a paid mouthpiece.

If the Saudis are truly the kings of oil, then they should have nothing to fear by opening their field data to public scrutiny, as requested by Simmons and others. I find this current situation with the Saudis analogous to the nuclear arms race. The United States and Russia are the kings of WMD, just as the Saudis claim to be the kings of oil. However, the difference is that everyone knows how many WMD the U.S. and Russia have. Everyone knows the number and types of warheads. The U.S. and Russia flaunt their numbers to flaunt their superiority. So, in the world of oil, if the Saudi's are the kings of oil as they professes, why not flaunt it, prove it, verify it? Show us, through inspectors, how big their oil "nuke" arsenal is.

For years, no one questioned the Saudi status as the Kings of Oil, but that is no longer true. The world needs oil and lots of it. The Saudis claim they have the capacity to deliver the much needed oil, yet their statements go unheard, instead of the oil price dropping, it keeps rising. When the Saudis try to sell reduced heavy crude, it finds little buyers. The Kings of Oil are losing credbility fast.

The Saudi's continued failure to be transparent means they continue to lose credibility. Their loss of credibility only buttresses the claims of Simmons, Cambpell and the like. Without some transparency from the Saudis or by you Mr. Lynch, you lose credibility.

The only thing for the Saudis or you to hide is that the fact that their publicly stated reserves, production capacity, and rates of decline are inaccurate, and that they are not the giant "swing" producer they claim to be. It leads one to conclude that transparancy, to them and to you, would mean a total loss of credibility. Its a no win situation for them or you. Actions speak louder than words, and their failure to head the call for transparency only takes away from their claim to be the worlds swing producer, and your claim that we have enough time.

Mr. Lynch, no one wants to believe you more than I. I have three small children. I want them to have the same or a better world than I have had. I suggest that to regain credibility, now is the time for transparency on your part.

Mr. Lynch, I've composed a list of questions for you. I'm not an expert, so I'm sure there are many questions that should be asked that I have not included. I therefore invite anyone else who has expertise to pose questions to you to answer so that we can have your opinions assessed by those with the proper background and expertise. However, I think my questions will get us off to a start, and at least provide some basis for your opinions.

Here they are:

(1) What is your financial interest with Saudi Aramco, the Saudi government, or any other Saudi firm or organization? Please provide full disclosure of any contracts or agreements with any such person with full disclosure of terms of payment or financial ties.

(2) What hard data, actual source documents, have you personally analyzed regarding Saudi oil production, to include where you got the documents, who provided them to you, when they were provided to you, and where the documents are now, (include an itemization of all the source documents analyzed, specifying the title of the document, the source of the document, and the date of the document).

(3) Have you had access to any documents concerning Saudi oil production, capacity, reserves, decline rates, or field data that Mathew Simmons has not had? If so, list all the documents, their source, the dates reviewed, and provide a copy of all the information for review.

(4) What is your estimated EUR for Saudi Arabia? In answering this question, provide the source of your information and the data relied upon by that source.

(5) Is Saudi Arabia currently producing at maximum capacity? If the Saudi's are not producing at maximum capacity, what is their current maximum production capacity stated in BPD, and how did you arrive at this figure. Again, if based on anything other than public statements from Saudi Aramco, provide the source of information and the documents supporting that production estimate.

(6) What did Saudi Aramco spend in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 on exploration? What is the source of this information?

(7) What is the average decline rate of Saudi oil production? Again, as for all questions, provide the source of this information.

(8) What is the decline rate of the Gharwa reserve? What is the source of this information?

(9) What did the Saudis spend in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 for increased production? What is the source of this information?

(10) List all countries that you agree are in a state of permanent decline in oil production;

(11) Do you believe that non-OPEC conventional oil production will peak? If so, when do you believe it will peak and what is the source of this information.

(12) When do you believe total world oil production will peak (both conventional and non-conventional)? What is the source or basis of this opinion? Please give your estimated URR for world oil, and provide the basis for this estimate.

(13) Do you believe an alternative to oil be found before your estimated peak in world oil production? If so, will the world shift to an alternative fuel due to a price increase in oil or due to some other reason? If due to an increase in oil price, what would the price have to be in today's dollars? If for some other reason, what would be the reason or reasons be to cause a shift from oil to some other fuel source.

(14) What will the energy source be that replaces oil? How much will it cost to develope? Will it be developed by private enterprise, governments, or a collaboration between the two?

(15) How much will it cost to restructure the world economy to use this new alternative fuel source? For example, new factories, new cars, new planes, etc, and where will this money come from?

(16) As an economist, will the shift to an alternative energy source be instituted by oil companies, other private companies, governments, individuals or a combination? Explain the analysis of how you believe this shift will occur.

(17) What is the maximum production capacity (in BPD) of world oil production prior to your estimated date of world peak. How much of this oil will be conventional oil, how much will be non-conventional oil, how much will come from non-opec countries, how much from OPEC.

(18) What will world oil demand be, stated in BPD, when your estimated world oil production will peak?

(19) What do you agree is a safe prediction for a yearly increase in world demand for oil, up through the year 2020?

(20) What is figure do you use to calculate average world decline rates in oil production from now until the year 2020?

(21) Do you agree with the recent Petroleum Review analysis that the world is losing in excess of over a million barrels of oil a day through normal decline rates? If you disagree, state why and what is the source of your information.

(22) What will world oil demand be in the year 2020 (stated in BPD)? What percentage of this demand will be met by OPEC? What percentage will be met by non-conventional oil? And please state how much each of the following countries will have to produce to meet that estimate of world demand in 2020, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Canada.

(23) How much investment in exploration and production is needed each year to produce enough oil to meet world oil demand in the year 2020?

(24) What is your estimated date of peak for each of the following countries, and state your estimate for their maximum oil production at peak - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran.

(25) Will it be necessary for Saudi Arabia to allow outside companies to invest in its exploration/production to meet world demand in 2020?

(26) Will it be necessary for Iran to allow outside companies to invest in its exploration/production to meet world demand in 2020?

(27) Will it be necessary for Russia to allow outside companies to invest in its exploration/production to meet world demand in 2020?

(28) In 2004, you stated that the price per barrel of oil would be back to $30 by the summer of 2005. Do you still stick to this prediction? Please explain either a yes or a no.

Mr. Lynch, I end by saying I hope you accept this challenge to answer these questions, and any others posed to you. Everyone wants to believe you are right, so please convince us by shedding some light on your opinions.

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