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The Methane Thread pt. 2

Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 30 Apr 2018, 11:51:48

onlooker : Note also that the Sun itself is older and warm much more Earth than 250 millions years ago.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 30 Apr 2018, 12:18:06

Sys1 wrote:onlooker : Note also that the Sun itself is older and warm much more Earth than 250 millions years ago.

Yikes
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 30 Apr 2018, 18:39:22

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-metha ... re/5638298

Having sent young generations to kill and die in wars, the powers to be are now presiding over the greatest mass extinction of nature since 66 million years ago.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 30 Apr 2018, 21:32:14

Thanks for the link...onlooker
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 04 May 2018, 20:56:55

A newly-identified positive feedback loop for methane generated by rotting bulrushes (cat-tails):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-43990403
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby chilyb » Fri 04 May 2018, 23:40:39

Hello,

will anyone care to comment on this recent post on the arctic news blog?

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/04 ... orrow.html

This seems to be the appropriate thread to ask for opinions.

Thank you.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 05 May 2018, 09:43:33

Thanks for posting this link here, c.

On the one hand, it is certainly legitimate to apply knowledge we gain about other planets' climate systems to increase our understanding of earth systems. After all, most of James Hansen's early work was about Venus.

But that doesn't mean whatever happens on another planet is proof it will happen here, it seems to me. There are so many other factors that could come into play with the enormous numbers of differences between the makeup of the two planets.

That being said, I think the paper may be making a valid point if they are saying that such a relatively sudden blow out on earth cannot be entirely ruled out. But I would want to look at it a bit more carefully and hear from others on this and other forums before drawing any hard and fast conclusions.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 21 May 2018, 18:56:30

The linked reference indicates that the instantaneous GWP for methane should be used for calculating values of CO2e. This indicates consensus climate science values for CO2e err on the side of least drama:

Nightingale, P.: Only the instantaneous global warming potential is consistent with honest and responsible greenhouse gas accounting, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-22, in review, 2018.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2018-22/

Abstract:
This paper presents a simple model to describe the impact on global warming of methane (natural gas) when used for energy production. The model is used to estimate the near-term effect of energy policies based on natural gas as a bridge fuel. The results make it clear that the commonly employed global warming potential of methane with a 100-year time horizon has the following problems:

1: it produces misleading results;

2: is inconsistent with meaningful tracking of greenhouse gas emissions; and

3: is incompatible with the precautionary principle.


(thanks to aslr at asif for link and text)
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 02 Jun 2018, 12:11:36

dohboi wrote:The linked reference indicates that the instantaneous GWP for methane should be used for calculating values of CO2e. This indicates consensus climate science values for CO2e err on the side of least drama:

Nightingale, P.: Only the instantaneous global warming potential is consistent with honest and responsible greenhouse gas accounting, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-22, in review, 2018.



It is rather obvious that if CH4 levels are constant or increasing then the full radiative transfer properties of CH4 have to be used and not some time-adjusted values. The current approach only makes sense if one has a one-time initial CH4 amount that is allowed to decompose via photochemistry. But this is not the case since emissions (increasing ones at that) ensure that CH4 levels will not attenuate. So over any climate simulation period the CH4 distribution is actually showing increasing concentrations.

Actually GCMs do it right, they use the actual (assuming emissions are properly prescribed) CH4 concentrations to calculate the heating rate and not some time-adjusted amounts. So every ppb of CH4 added to the concentration that persists gives 72 times more impact than an equivalent amount of CO2. I do not know why CH4 is always discussed with a time discount. There is no scenario under which CH4 concentrations will decrease in the next few hundred years. As humans we have to care about such "short" timescales.
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 06 Jun 2018, 03:55:40

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfJ63zDBUZ4

Methane, CO2, ESAS - weekly update (May 19, 2018)

Margo presents a weekly update to global conditions with an emphasis on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and sulfur dioxide release over Hawaii.

Margo's first interview with Dr. Guy McPherson: Dr. Guy McPherson - Preparing for Near-Term Human Extinction (Mar. 17, 2017): https://youtu.be/dU7iBM45mHQ
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Re: The Methane Thread pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 09:48:47

The Arctic’s carbon bomb might be even more potent than we thought


Research released Monday suggests that methane releases could be considerably more prevalent as Arctic permafrost thaws.

http://www.fasterthanexpected.com/2018/ ... e-thought/
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