[I_Like_Plants]

OK read up on hailstone formation because it's interesting. Basically you have a tall, tall, cloud formation, and the hailstones get formed when updrafts pull rain droplets up and they freeze, these things can go up multiple times and so, you can break a hailstone in half and see layers. Hail happens in Hawaii too, it's just rare.

If it rains and you get BIG drops, it means the cloud over you is tall, if it hails, the cloud formation over you is very tall!

[eric_b]

Yes.

All of Asia is currently under a pall.

Here's a visible satellite shot from Aug 11, 2005. Evening local time. The oblique
sun angle helps to accentuate the haze. From Malaysia, though China and Japan.
Note (as an example) the tendril wafting off the coast of China (North of Taiwan).

The rest of the world isn't doing much better, though the Southern hemisphere is
still relatively clean.

[backstop]

The last time news of the haze in E Asia being so bad reached the UK press it was swiftly followed by news the property crash originating in Thailand.

I've long wondered whether the haze was just the added stress needed to break a frajile economic confidence.

Since the E Asian oil consumption has scarcely risen this year (with little official encouragement of energy efficiency) it seems a fair bet that the oil-price is already seriously stressing the region's economy, unlike in the US & EU.

So if anyone hears news of the present haze having discernable economic impacts could they please post it ?

regards,

Backstop

[seldom_seen]

Malaysian and Indonesian officials held talks on how to reduce the spread of smoke and pollution from Borneo and Sumatra islands and Peninsular Malaysia, where farmers use brushfires to clear land.

I'm glad to hear they're clearing the jungles of Borneo and Sumatra, not like those jungles do any good just standing there. This is quite apocalyptic in my book.

Borneo contains (or did contain) some of the last surviving primitive tribes in the world.

[BorneoRagnarok]

Yup, I cannot see anything around here.
Visibility reduce to 300 metres.
Yes all the forest had been cleared for biodiesel oil palm plantations.
Truely, the worse case scenario..

If I can afford a digital camera , I will take pictures of destroyed rainforests and the haze of course..

[Taskforce_Unity]

I just went through the oil. production data of the quarterly statistics of oil, gas & electricity, 2nd quarter 2005 which has just been published.

It appears as if Malaysia has peaked.

Production in oil-equivalents (oil + NGL) from the quarterly statistics:

2003 prod. 831.000 b/d
2004 prod. 857.000 b/d
1st qt 2005 prod. 841.000 b/d
2nd qt 2005 prod. 771.000 b/d

Could be that there is an oil disruption going on over there that I am not aware of. Otherwise it look like a "cliff" like decline.

This might be what Prime Minister Najib Razak ment when he said:

"Malaysia is an oil exporter, but if we do not find new oil reserves, then by 2009, we will become a net importer,"

[seahorse]

Interesting. It will be interesting to see if this is a "cliff" decline or just a temporary disruption. If its a "cliff", then it just adds more evidence to Simmon's position that modern technology leads to steep decline rates and takes away from Lynch's position that these "cliffs" are anomolies.

[Choon]

From what I can tell, the government seems to believe that we've peaked. Hell, even our previous Prime Minister recently admitted that oil isn't going to last forever.

Our ministers have been throwing around the usual "solutions" -> shift to natural gas/biodiesel, seemingly without even considering the limitations to these alternatives. It doesn't help when the public agrees that all we need to do to keep consuming is keep tapping our NG reserves and plant more and more palm oil trees.

A lot of times, I envy you Americans. at least you've got Dancing Rabbits to run to when TSHTF.

[0mar]

There's an elephant of a producer right there

[Antimatter]

T'was just a temporary disruption of some sort. Production fell to about 740kb/d in may but is back up to around 850kb/d now.

http://omrpublic.iea.org/supply/ma_to_ov.pdf

http://omrpublic.iea.org/supply/ma_to_ts.pdf

2004 may well end up being the peak year though although IIRC there were some deepwater finds in recent years that should be starting up in a few years...i may be getting mixed up with somewhere else though.

[BorneoRagnarok]

This might be what Prime Minister Najib Razak ment when he said:

Hmmm... he is Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia. Malaysian Prime Minister is Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. BTW in Malaysia, many people believes in 'RAHMAN' propercy that the last Prime Minister of Malaysia is Najib Razak. Just use the following characters

Tunku Abdul Rahman - 1st one
Abdul Razak - 2nd
Hussein Onn - 3rd
Mahathir Mohammad - 4th
Ahmad Badawi - 5th
Najib Razak - Maybe/Maybe not the 6th

2nd qt 2005 prod. 771.000 b/d

That's explained why there are massive nationwide diesel shortage that lasts for 2 months from March until April 2005. Gogota's village don't have single drop of diesel for 1 whole month during that crisis. A few days ago around 20 October 2005, Lundu fuel stations run out of diesel again.

Next year, petrol price will increased dramatically from USD 1.61 per litre now as subsidies are abolished and free universal healthcare gone by 2007. Some say average daily production is 10% less than year 2004 .

[Taskforce_Unity]

mmm... he is Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia. Malaysian Prime Minister is Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Didn't know that, I just directly quoted the names from a news article..

There are some oil projects going on, you are right about that antimatter (Kikeh field and the Guntong Hub, supposedly adding 200.000 b/d together somewhere in the coming years).

I am a bit confused because of the goverments statements that they will be a net oil importer at the end of the decade. There is no data that proves a "cliff" decline that is necessary for that.

From the IEA graph posted above we can conclude that the country has peaked for the moment (might increase again when those projects are taken into production). The last 3 figures (October+November+December 2005 are the IEA optimistic estimates that never ring true

[Choon]

That's explained why there are massive nationwide diesel shortage that lasts for 2 months from March until April 2005. Gogota's village don't have single drop of diesel for 1 whole month during that crisis. A few days ago around 20 October 2005, Lundu fuel stations run out of diesel again.

What I don't understand is considering that we have a shortfall in production, wouldn't our diesel crisis have steadily grown worse rather than on an on-off basis? Or is 8 months (between diesel crisis incidents)still too short a time for constant shortages to occur?

[ohanian]

Next year, petrol price will increased dramatically from USD 1.61 per litre now as subsidies are abolished and free universal healthcare gone by 2007. Some say average daily production is 10% less than year 2004 .

Let me get this straight. In Malaysia.

1 litre of petrol is US $1.61 dollars????

That's US $6.08 per US gallons!!!

[Choon]

Our petrol prices right now (per litre) are:

Peninsular Malaysia
RON97 -> RM1.62
RON92 -> RM1.58
Diesel -> RM1.281
LPG -> RM1.45 per kilogram

East Malaysia
RON97 -> RM1.60 for Sabah, RM1.61 for Sarawak
RON92 -> RM1.58 for both states
Diesel -> RM1.284 for Sabah, RM1.278 for Sarawak
LPG -> RM1.53 per kilogram for both States

1 US Dollar ~ RM3.8

Right now, we pay peanuts for fuel compared to a lot of other countries. Though it doesn't help that we get paid smaller peanuts for our jobs.

[OilMan]

Has Malaysia peaked?

Not even close!

[TT]

Has Malaysia peaked?

Not even close!

And you know this how?

Please share your sources and knowledge with us.

[gogota]

has Malaysia peaked ??

I am already hide inside the jungle. I am happy if peak oil arrive sooner. Less car & new government. I dunno whether peak oil has arrived here but the crisis is here for some time. Murder, suicide is ordinary thing nowadays.

[Cyrus]

I think a lot of areas have peaked/are peaking and will blame "temporary production problems" and such to mask the fact.

[Longsword]

has Malaysia peaked ??

I am already hide inside the jungle. I am happy if peak oil arrive sooner. Less car & new government. I dunno whether peak oil has arrived here but the crisis is here for some time. Murder, suicide is ordinary thing nowadays.

Despite sounding a bit ghoulish, I would love to know more from somebody actually living there. It seems that there has been a great shifts in Malaysian society. However, this is not very well documented in the West (reminds me of the Argentinian crash) and I would like to know what has happened to law and order, prices, jobs, availability of energy etc.? How different has life become?