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THE Limits to Growth Thread

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 01:18:54

Here is a good investment. Look, it even grows!

Image
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 01:26:18

MonteQuest wrote:
Carlhole wrote: If your too much of a chicken to buy or sell a few shares, you can at least check the stock now and then, but it encompasses the Cornucopian/Doomer argument very nicely, don't you think?


Investments require growth.


Duh.

My suggestion, so that you might more ably afford your comfy doomstead, is to short any overly-exhuberant price rises in APWR. Eventually, if Doomers are correct, the stock price will collapse completely when the horrible dawning realization of peak hits the general global market.

As I said, this stock has a lot of short interest - up to around 20%. It's easy to short it and make a lot of money - if you are right.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 03:19:05

Nahnah nahnana. Double dare.

Chldish response. Grow up.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 03:42:57

Quinny wrote:Nahnah nahnana. Double dare.

Chldish response. Grow up.


No, man.

I noticed that APWR almost perfectly characterizes the Cornucopian/Doomer argument. If it goes way up like over the course of 3 years or so, then the Cornies are winning, at least over that timeframe. It's got a lot going for it though. Read this translation from Chinese news piece (of today, I think):

Energy experts say China wind power is expected to adopt a “NUMBER ONE STATUS ” during the year

Http://www.chinafengji.net/year2009 14, 08: 24 Jiefang Daily


China fan network year2009 14â 日讯
  
(China wind power) will pass over Spain and Germany and approach the United States, China express a “Shan Xia Wind Power” grand plan.

  Domestic wind energy has become the largest hydro-energy outside of zero emissions, renewable energy resources. The latest data indicate that by 2009 the total installed capacity of wind power generation in China could more than 26 million kW, has doubled since last year, and the fourth possible steps into the second. This is the energy experts yesterday in a comprehensive look at renewable energy “ ” climate change report media study class on the.

  At present, China is still a major force for energy in the form of coal and energy role up to 70%, 8% of greenhouse gas emissions. But according to conitibution, to 2050 years, coal energy much cut in half, the proportion of renewable energy is booming, almost 30%, it became the mainstream of energy. In the six forms of renewable energy: hydro-energy, wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, tidal, geothermal energy, the non-water-the fastest growing renewable energy, wind energy in particular.

  Statistics show that
The third consecutive year that China has become the world's most active wind power market. In 2008, the installed capacity of wind power of the national new 6.3 million kW, with total reached 1220 million kW, beyond India, second only to the United States, Germany, Spain. This year, with a total capacity is expected to be $ 2630 million kW, with 215â% growth, leadership in Germany, Spain and the United States last year million kW of an acceptable standard. Shanghai Institute of mechanical and power engineering professor Yu Yue-feng said, next year China wind power installed capacity will continue to maintain high growth may tie even overtaking the United States...


If you're a Doomer, you gotta believe in your heart that all this effort is ultimately for nought. It will all come a-crashing down, right?

So, besides being a good way to have some fun with a little money, APWR acts like a barometer for the Cornucopian/Doomer debate. If it's up, the Cornies are winning; if it's down, the Doomers are taking the field. If you're too chicken to put some money on it, just watch the stock.

So, buy a hundred shares. Maybe you follow it up a ways, double or triple it, and then short the hell out of it when it starts to look toppy. It's not a boring stock, though. And not for the faint-hearted. It's just fun. And it happens to mirror the peak oil debate pretty well.

In general, the market is good at anticipating future events. Better than individuals or groups. It can teach you things.

So what is the market deciding about the Peak Oil debate? Follow the money. And lately, the money is interested in renewables. There is no sense of hopelessness at all in the broader investment community. Rather, there is a sense of opportunity and challenge on behalf of both private enterprise and government in China.

The US appears to be fully in support of this. In fact, it looks like China and the US are now welded together. We are going to see a lot of innovation from these events, long before we ever sniff any doom in the air. ...or maybe you think I'm wronger than wrong can be? Well... open a little account at Zecco.com, and put some money on your own good sense!
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 03:58:38

Carlhole wrote:if you are right.
What? You think there might be no limits to growth?

Monte is right to raise the subject again. Limits to Growth was villified unfairly and made no specifically dated predictions.

I always find it incredible that apparently intelligent people can believe in infinite resources and an infinite capacity for the planet to render our pollution harmless. That is the implicit assumption made by those who think we can carry on business as usual, with just a few tweaks here or there.

Economic and population growth must stop.

Richard Heinberg drew together the five axioms of sustainability which, I think, can be summarized as:

    Don't consume resources beyond their renewal rates

    Don't degrade our habitat.

Resources are meant in their broadest sense.

There is zero evidence that the bulk of the population and governments understand limits or want to consider them. Consequently, collapse is inevitable, in my opinion. Here is a well argued piece about why we will never do the things that need to be done to avoid collapse
Those who have their doubts about anthropogenic climate change can apply the identical logic to the industrial world’s sustained nonresponse to the peaking of world oil production, or to any of half a dozen other global crises that result from the collision between an economy geared to infinite growth and the relentless limits of a finite planet. In each case, the immediate costs of doing something about the issue are so high, and so unendurable, that very few people in positions of influence are willing to stick their necks out, and those who do so can count on being shortened by a head by others who are more than willing to cash in on their folly.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 04:04:23

Carlhole wrote:So what is the market deciding about the Peak Oil debate? Follow the money. And lately, the money is interested in renewables. There is no sense of hopelessness at all in the broader investment community. Rather, there is a sense of opportunity and challenge on behalf of both private enterprise and government in China.
I really think comments like this illustrate the huge problem we face in avoiding collapse. They show a complete lack of understanding about limits though do explain the problem quite well. There is always a growth opportunity somewhere, isn't there? And there alway will be, won't there?
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 04:11:52

Leave it to the markets. :roll:

Of course there's a limit to growth!
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 04:14:22

TonyPrep wrote:
Carlhole wrote:if you are right.
What? You think there might be no limits to growth?

Monte is right to raise the subject again. Limits to Growth was villified unfairly and made no specifically dated predictions.


Well... I assume you look at a promising fledgling company like APWR as an essentially FUTILE endeavor. The company, in your opinion is doomed to become worthless. Also, periodic economic advances lead to economic retreats soon afterwards as predicted by Peak Oil Theory.

Therefore, you can make money by selling the stock short at the top of one of these economic advances - which are doomed to failure due to impossibly high future fuel prices. According to peak oil theory, there is no way to build-out a sustainable grid in China and the US and elsewhere; That is what APWR and the Shangyang Power Alliance want to do.

So short it! Save a wad to put towards your doom shack. Or at least watch a stock like this like you would a barometer - to see how it jibes with what you believe. It's always much more interesting to have some money riding on your opinion though.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 10:20:22

Mos,

Nice!
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 13:40:07

TonyPrep wrote:
Carlhole wrote:So what is the market deciding about the Peak Oil debate? Follow the money. And lately, the money is interested in renewables. There is no sense of hopelessness at all in the broader investment community. Rather, there is a sense of opportunity and challenge on behalf of both private enterprise and government in China.
I really think comments like this illustrate the huge problem we face in avoiding collapse. They show a complete lack of understanding about limits though do explain the problem quite well. There is always a growth opportunity somewhere, isn't there? And there alway will be, won't there?


Yes, the Obsolete Playbook that envisions one can always make money without actually working for it. Those days are numbered. And the value of the money from the short position is in question as well.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 14:16:53

MonteQuest wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
Carlhole wrote:So what is the market deciding about the Peak Oil debate? Follow the money. And lately, the money is interested in renewables. There is no sense of hopelessness at all in the broader investment community. Rather, there is a sense of opportunity and challenge on behalf of both private enterprise and government in China.
I really think comments like this illustrate the huge problem we face in avoiding collapse. They show a complete lack of understanding about limits though do explain the problem quite well. There is always a growth opportunity somewhere, isn't there? And there alway will be, won't there?


Yes, the Obsolete Playbook that envisions one can always make money without actually working for it. Those days are numbered. And the value of the money from the short position is in question as well.


Look, I posted the example of APWR because it is a good barometer of broad market expectation about our near-term energy future. There are a lot of different kinds of investors in this stock , big and small. Investors are well aware of the dire peak oil warnings given by Matt Simmons, T. Boone Pickens and others. There have been dozens of articles posted at places like SeekingAlpha and elsewhere about PO. It's not like peak oil theory is a mystery or has not been thoroughly digested everywhere by market participants whose investments would be dramatically affected by diminishing petroleum supplies. They KNOW the peak oil idea really well.

Despite this awareness, you only ever see a high concentration of PO doomers on a board like this one. Everywhere else, convictions of impending doom due to oil depletion are very rare, even though the peak oil argument has been around for years now and is well-known.

So you think that members of PeakOil.com perceive reality so much better than the broad market? I think not.

At any rate, just check APWR now and then to see how doomer predictions are faring in the stock market. Personally, I think this stock could be above $100 by 2012, with a possibility of $200/share. Of course, if you guys turn out to be right after all, the market, at some point, will soon catch on and we will see plummeting stock values everywhere.

Financial markets are able to predict major trends way in advance. And what the market is indicating by and large is that peak oil fears are nothing to worry about. Also, the market is indicating that there will be great cooperation around the world to build sustainable flexible smart-grids that use a variety of energy sources.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 17:30:20

Carlhole wrote:So you think that members of PeakOil.com perceive reality so much better than the broad market? I think not.
I think so. Of course many others are aware of the arguments but look at what the establishment is telling them. Within the horizon that interests them most, there is no problem, so they extrapolate that out. If there is no problem that far out then who know what wonderful inventions there might be to solve our problems, enabling BAU for ever.

Not only is that a ridiculous view (because our planet is finite) but it completely ignores the fact that the predictions coming from the establishment change every year. Indeed, the IEA predictions in 1997 were much closer to what the doomers are saying now, but its predictions changed markedly up to a few years ago and then began to be reigned in. If the establishment story changes year to year, why do the economists and investors accept them? Because they provide a more palatable story (so far) than the doomer story.

Following the money is a doomed strategy because the money goes to where it's felt the most return is possible. That is, it is based on an assumption of no limits.

It is that assumption that ensures collapse.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Dec 2009, 19:28:10

TonyPrep wrote: Following the money is a doomed strategy because the money goes to where it's felt the most return is possible. That is, it is based on an assumption of no limits.

It is that assumption that ensures collapse.


Spot on, Tony. +1
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 17 Dec 2009, 06:51:05

Image

Amazing Pictures , Pollution in China | ChinaHush. Amazing in this usage translates as "fucking horrifying." This would be that Population curve trending down on the LTG graphs. I guess. Suppose they can live in their Satanic mills for centuries on end, really, continue to breed. When your body's covered with lesions and sores what makes the time go by better than sex?

Shorting one company to prove a point about the globe, that's a bit selective. How about the sector as a whole? China will no doubt install generation in any form it can, until it can't, after their bubble economy implodes. The China Bubble's Coming -- But Not the One You Think.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 02:49:57

"Following The Money", as Tony says, leads inevitably over the cliff.

The posters and others who argue that one species doesn't matter need to start thinking holistically. Every species is a domino, every species is a lightening rod for environmental degradation and another waypoint on our own road over the cliff.

Consider this, it is just a little old fish of no consequence. . . right?

[b]A Fish Oil Story[/b]

"related to me recently how his research uncovered that populations were once so large that “the vanguard of the fish’s annual migration would reach Cape Cod while the rearguard was still in Maine.” Menhaden filter-feed nearly exclusively on algae, the most abundant forage in the world, and are prolifically good at converting that algae into "

"But menhaden are entering the final losing phases of a century-and-a-half fight for survival that began when humans started turning huge schools into fertilizer and lamp oil. Once petroleum-based oils replaced menhaden oil in lamps, trillions of menhaden were ground into feed for hogs, chickens and pets. Today, hundreds of millions of pounds of them are converted into lipstick, salmon feed, paint, “buttery spread,” salad dressing and, yes, some of those omega-3 supplements you have been forcing on your children. All of these products can be made with more environmentally benign substitutes, but menhaden are still used in great (though declining) numbers because they can be caught and processed cheaply."

"For the last decade, one company, Omega Protein of Houston, has been catching 90 percent of the nation’s menhaden."


"Quite simply, menhaden keep the water clean. The muddy brown color of the Long Island Sound and the growing dead zones in the Chesapeake Bay are the direct result of inadequate water filtration — a job that was once carried out by menhaden. An adult menhaden can rid four to six gallons of water of algae in a minute. Imagine then the water-cleaning capacity of the half-billion menhaden we “reduce” into oil every year. "

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/16/opini ... .html?_r=1

Unfortunately for the human species, ideas or actions intended to move cultures or societies from their preferred state of being are met with derision, hostility and violence by the public and the governments. That is why we are going over the cliff. Our preferred state is huge consumption, convenience and apathy. The people of our "killer take all" culture are not going to
move out of this preferred state of existence until all is killed, consumed, and polluted beyond our ability to utilize it for business as usual.

As resources become scarce the wealthy among us will consume them as status symbols. They do it now with exvatravagent dinners of endangered species on their plates. There are many more examples. Extragent consumption is a status sympbol, likely one with a genetic component, like the biggest bull elk servicing the most cow elk. Convincing people on a global scale to act against their genetic hard wiring when the wealthy elite are continuing to grossly over consume and flaunt their symbols of wealth, power and position is doomed to fail.

1200 limos not being enough for the Copenhagen talks is a recent example. How can the we take the talks, and any calls to action that result from the talks, serously when the participants clearly don't.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 03:10:36

MonteQuest wrote:
TonyPrep wrote: Following the money is a doomed strategy because the money goes to where it's felt the most return is possible. That is, it is based on an assumption of no limits.

It is that assumption that ensures collapse.


Spot on, Tony. +1


It seems to me that certain investments could do astoundingly well, even if on average, investments in overall growth (i.e. stocks) do terribly. For example, if energy efficiency becomes paramount, then Buffett's recent railroad purchase is likely to perform rather well, especially compared to trucking and airlines. This even if overall miles traveled decreases substantially.

This assumes that zombies don't rule the day short term, of course...
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 03:18:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
TonyPrep wrote: Following the money is a doomed strategy because the money goes to where it's felt the most return is possible. That is, it is based on an assumption of no limits.

It is that assumption that ensures collapse.


Spot on, Tony. +1


It seems to me that certain investments could do astoundingly well, even if on average, investments in overall growth (i.e. stocks) do terribly. For example, if energy efficiency becomes paramount, then Buffett's recent railroad purchase is likely to perform rather well, especially compared to trucking and airlines. ...


What will the company you give your capital to do with it? What will you do with the profits? Unless the answer to both questions is put it in a can and bury it the company will attempt to grow in order to deliver more stuff to more people, and you will consume more resources. Both courses of action lead over the cliff.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 03:24:32

Maybe I'm getting old or daft, but it seems to be that there is a bult-in assumption by 99% of folks that implies that there must be MORE for things to be better.

I'm not convinced. I can now have countless digital media available to me without owning any disks, paper books, etc. Since I'm an information junkie, if you can get me the data I want in a usable form, I don't need or want much beyond what I need to be healthy and independent.

Actually, to me, more is worse as it implies complexity, and therefore a hassle and a waste of time. Sort of a Maslowe's heirarchy based on real needs instead of what marketers want to sell you.

Now, living in a culture that, for example, will cling to life for as long as possible in a nursing home, no matter HOW horrible the quality of life, or WHAT the cost in real and/or emotional terms to self, family, friends, and society at large -- I suspect that the odds of convincing 99% of the populace that LESS chosen carefully may be MUCH better is about zero.

That, IMO, is most unfortunate, and it also, IMO, is the true root of our problems.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 04:28:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:LESS chosen carefully may be MUCH better


Let's get back to reality here.

Less in the age of overshoot is scary. Growth is what people define as "progress". Collapse leads you back in time to when life was, in the eyes of most, "nasty brutish and short". So I totally understand the resistance to powerdown.

Too often I've seen collapse described merely as the spoiled 1st world seeing the light and ceasing its overconsumption. It's just some form of moral comeuppance for our wasteful ways. No big deal as long as we adopt the right mindset. Give up the SUVs, McMansions, move into brownstones, and maybe stop eating so much meat. Then it's happily ever after! This tends to be the vibe that Kunstler gives off, despite writing the doomy World Made by Hand. I don't think the data backs this narrative up.

I just wonder sometimes how much of this "hey, it's a good thing" sentiment is in fact a self-serving defense mechanism that we are throwing up because we don't want to look the negativity in the face any more than deniers do?

So I think it cuts both ways. I think denialists use denial as a defense mechanism and some doomers lay on the "hey, this is what you need for proper self-actualization" stuff a little too thick.

You can theorize all you want about doom but it's different from living through it. It's only from the comfort of our computers with our warm hot chocolate by our sides that we can think of the bright side of doom. That's why they call it doomer porn. It's entertainment because the doom, however real it may be, is still safely in the FUTURE tense. I was eating Reece's Pieces while watching The Road. I knew exactly what I was doing by that. I was celebrating the fact that we're not there yet. The icecaps may be melting and there is a mass extinction going on. I know because Google News tells me so... But damn it, I'm in downtown Boston which is not yet underwater, and I've still got Reece's Pieces! So I'm playing out that scene with Viggo and the kid and the coke can in a sort of surreal way because I know I'm gonna lose this stuff. Whether BAU is all worthless junk food for the soul or not, that's the only world I've ever known and when it's gone, it will take away a chunk of my life in the process.

I suspect that when we really are racing down the rollercoaster in the present tense, and experiencing each milestone, one blow after the next, up close and personal, that a lot of that false positivity about how much better life would be after TSHTF will dissolve. Perhaps the only thing that will really satisfy me is not feeling like Chicken Little anymore, no longer having to suffer in silence.
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Re: The Limits to Growth

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Fri 18 Dec 2009, 05:21:01

I suspect that when we really are racing down the rollercoaster in the present tense, and experiencing each milestone, one blow after the next, up close and personal, that a lot of that false positivity about how much better life would be after TSHTF will dissolve. Perhaps the only thing that will really satisfy me is not feeling like Chicken Little anymore, no longer having to suffer in silence.


I agree, the rollercoaster dip equals wars, upscaled competition, shortages and collapse. After that life will equal fighting and survival for the forseeable future. It's easy to fantasize while sitting on a computer chair in front of a monitor and have the real wilderness safely on the other side of the window.
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