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THE Limits to Growth Thread

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 16:44:15

aflurry wrote:i've been following PO for a couple of years now. it is all very convincing... the center cannot hold etc etc. but until the center actually ceases to hold, we are the fools hunkered down in a bunker while the sun continues to shine outside and people play frisbee.


Um, maybe overreactive or a bit paranoid but certainly not foolish. From reading your post you seem to understand PO and the tragic consequences of being ignorant yet you seem to be longing to be one of the ignorant types.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 17:54:44

aflurry wrote:...this is an unprecedented event and we have no idea how things will turn out economically, culturally, or environmentally...

Exactly, which is why I have a hard time understanding what people are "planning" and "preparing" for. We have no idea of what's coming.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Unread postby Heineken » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 18:30:44

Andrew_S wrote:
Heineken wrote:
Yes, Peak Heineken is inevitable. Perhaps I can brew my own . . . if brewing supplies are still available . . . unlikely.

Anyway, who wants warm beer?


Wot, no fridge?

Reminded me of when I worked in London in the early '90s. Heatwave, mid 90s F (we're not used to that), working in the lab all day. Straight to the pub after work, dripping with sweat: I actually asked the barman to put some ice in my bitter! It certainly helped - and I wasn't even ashamed.


I was referring to a time when there will be no functioning fridge, or at least a very unreliable one.
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Unread postby Grifter » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 18:34:05

Heineken wrote:
I was referring to a time when there will be no functioning fridge, or at least a very unreliable one.


get used to bitter then, simple. chilling bitter is the same as chilling red wine.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby oowolf » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 19:10:44

According to Derrick Jensen, a dedicated corps of ELF, EarthFirsters, green anarchists, and NeoLuddites are seriously planning to take down the electric grid, communications equipment &ct in a coordinated cyber-ebomb attack. With the power off and no communications, an army of monkeywrenchers will commence falling towers and blowing dams to insure "civilization" stays down long enough to insure a massive dieoff.

You all knew this already, didn't you?
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 19:19:44

Zardoz wrote:
aflurry wrote:...this is an unprecedented event and we have no idea how things will turn out economically, culturally, or environmentally...

Exactly, which is why I have a hard time understanding what people are "planning" and "preparing" for. We have no idea of what's coming.


Well hell, I'd rather position myself in some type of lifeboat and make some educated guesses then just throw my hands in the air for an unknown future. Human nature ain't rocket science. There's plenty of well thought out theories on this site to be validated, better understood or adapted as things unfold. Granted some of us are just analysts at heart that love to strategize. However on the other hand, some of us have made good money on our foresight while others have gained piece of mind and security. And hey some of us may just survive well into the great human catastrophe! It's all about stacking the odds, few things in life are "for sure"
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 20:25:37

oowolf wrote:According to Derrick Jensen...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derrick_Jensen

"Common themes in Jensen's work include discussion of his abusive father..."

He needs to get some issues resolved.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 21:04:17

aflurry wrote:on this board there are too many prognostications . . . we have no idea how things will turn out or economically, culturally, or environmentally.


True, but the ultimate picture is becoming clearer each year. Because we're headed down a one-way, dead-end road, and as we proceed, fewer exits are available. We can't generate the commitment (and endure the sacrifices) necessary to pursue the dwindling viable options (the "exits") as we bull ahead in our giant collective SUV. So we're barreling along at 80 mph and will finally hit the brakes when we're only a few feet from the wall. And that's how a population of 7-10 billion people will quickly "resize" itself for the post-PO realities, and the extra-special reality of an environmentally devastated Earth.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 21:09:17

mmasters wrote: Some of us have made good money on our foresight while others have gained piece of mind and security.


But how far will your "good money" get you when bread is $200 a loaf?

Peace of mind may be possible only by retreating inward, as through yoga (which I recommend and practice).

Security? Always an illusion. You can count on a lot less of it in the future, no matter the size of your bank account.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 21:26:50

Heineken wrote: So we're barreling along at 80 mph and will finally hit the brakes when we're only a few feet from the wall. And that's how a population of 7-10 billion people will quickly "resize" itself for the post-PO realities, and the extra-special reality of an environmentally devastated Earth.


Just stand clear of the war, famine pestilence and death and you'll be just fine. Sometimes I wonder if the folks that wrote prophecies like Revelation in the bible were just people that understood human nature, the limits of resources, and the inevitable boom and bust cycle that occurs.

I do see things happening though. It's slow, and not evenly distributed geographically, but there are certainly communities that will be more robust against whatever growth "braking" method gets thrown their way.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 20 Jul 2006, 21:38:08

dinopello wrote:Sometimes I wonder if the folks that wrote prophecies like Revelation in the bible were just people that understood human nature, the limits of resources, and the inevitable boom and bust cycle that occurs.


They were alot closer to nature than us in the first couple of centuries of the common era. Notice how the four horseman did not include the Easter Bunny or the tooth-fairy.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 04:38:32

Yes, along with high gas prices has come higher gas usage. But isn't that forced on people really because of the lame US infrastructure? One good thing that I have noticed is that with high gas prices when I go off on one of my rants somewhere about oil running out more people agree and still more listen.

Now we have to work on those that think high gas prices are only a scam and there is an eternity of oil just under the Behring Straits.

The trick I think is going to be getting the people to lust after efficiency like they do after inefficiency. People like the BMW Cooper. They might go for the smart car if Daimler would just agree to put its Mercedes logo on it in bold size, right above the diamond encrusted, like rapper's teeth, license plate holder and above the trick faux wobbley wheels. Oh, and maybe they could leave the price tag hanging from the tailpipe.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 09:19:17

evilgenius wrote:The trick I think is going to be getting the people to lust after efficiency like they do after inefficiency. People like the BMW Cooper. They might go for the smart car if Daimler would just agree to put its Mercedes logo on it in bold size, right above the diamond encrusted, like rapper's teeth, license plate holder and above the trick faux wobbley wheels. Oh, and maybe they could leave the price tag hanging from the tailpipe.


The idea that greater efficiency can save us is fundamentally flawed. The reason is that we keep adding people (and, in the case of your example, drivers). So, as time passes, where formerly we had one Chevy Suburban we now have two or three Coopers. Actual progress becomes zero or negative.

Same deal applies to biofuels and nuclear. Let's say a bioenergy plant opens with great fanfare, and we're told it can electrify a town of 25,000 people. But each day the world is adding 8 times that number of people.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 14:57:28

mmasters wrote:
aflurry wrote:i've been following PO for a couple of years now. it is all very convincing... the center cannot hold etc etc. but until the center actually ceases to hold, we are the fools hunkered down in a bunker while the sun continues to shine outside and people play frisbee.


Um, maybe overreactive or a bit paranoid but certainly not foolish. From reading your post you seem to understand PO and the tragic consequences of being ignorant yet you seem to be longing to be one of the ignorant types.


i'm not sure i do think of PO as a tragic consequence of being ignorant. i look at it this way:

the oil was there. it was only a matter of time before we found it. with one billion people on earth there were one billion independent responses to the availability of oil, now six billion. basically overshoot was inevitable. and the mess of modernity was an incredible conflagration never seen before and never to be seen again. ever. the earth will be engulfed in the sun before they build skyscrapers this high again. isn't it kind of great to live during the time when you may get to see how the story ends?

i know people who moved out to the woods in the early seventies under very convincing evidence that society would soon collapse. life is more of a struggle for them now because they didn't play the game that was being played at the time. i don't think they regret it personally, but i can tell you the choice was not for everyone. i'm not advocating conformity but i certainly am criticizing the snotty know-it-all attitude that that people adopt after they read a little Kunstler and the first couple of chapters of The Limits to Growth. esp because, i still think those people were right, it's just that they misjudged what "soon" meant.

My post was in response to Heinekin's lament. "Nothing is happening?" I too cringe at the big boxes and SUV's. i just think that the idea that there are or have been any "exits" is wishful thinking. the idea of efficiency has been dashed to pieces so many times on this board. because of jevon's paradox, every positive action has an equal and negative reaction. so when you hunker down and conserve, 5,999,999,999 other people pick up the slack.

if there is benefit in your actions it is for you personally, and it's probably more of an aesthetic benefit... a reminder that you may have control over your small, tiny slice of the world. helps for courage maybe.

and if people are already struggling, making larger scale changes to their lives may not be possible. it's like the personal equivalent of retooling the auto industry... it requires energy input we ain't got.

besides, alot of these madd maxx scenarios are just as far-fetched as limitless growth.

The one pertinent quote in that Harper's article is that PO is the leftist "Left Behind." Now that is funny.

Whatever happens, PO is not just retribution on the overfed. It's a pretty near inevitable consequence of there being oil in the ground in the first place. And also, I see the same junkies walk by on the street year after year and i think they can't possibly still be alive, but there they are, and here we are and who knows how sick and in debt and ruined we can get before it finally becomes impossible to sustain?
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 15:48:54

oowolf wrote:According to Derrick Jensen, a dedicated corps of ELF, EarthFirsters, green anarchists, and NeoLuddites are seriously planning to take down the electric grid, communications equipment &ct in a coordinated cyber-ebomb attack. With the power off and no communications, an army of monkeywrenchers will commence falling towers and blowing dams to insure "civilization" stays down long enough to insure a massive dieoff.

You all knew this already, didn't you?


Sorry Derrick, I don't believe it when the gummint tells me the same story only it's a bunch of muslim true believers. Why would I believe that anarcho greenies would have the same stick-to-it-iveness?

cyber-ebomb? what is that now?

BTW, where did mister jensen say this? i have some friends that are big fans... i got 3/4 of the way through his first book and lost interest... can't remember why exactly.
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 16:11:58

Heineken wrote:
aflurry wrote:on this board there are too many prognostications . . . we have no idea how things will turn out or economically, culturally, or environmentally.


True, but the ultimate picture is becoming clearer each year. Because we're headed down a one-way, dead-end road, and as we proceed, fewer exits are available. We can't generate the commitment (and endure the sacrifices) necessary to pursue the dwindling viable options (the "exits") as we bull ahead in our giant collective SUV. So we're barreling along at 80 mph and will finally hit the brakes when we're only a few feet from the wall. And that's how a population of 7-10 billion people will quickly "resize" itself for the post-PO realities, and the extra-special reality of an environmentally devastated Earth.


And i agree with everything you are saying... I just think that when we try to translate that knowledge to a recommendation of how our fellows should be acting, it gets pretty fuzzy.

What if we were barreling along in our giant collective Prius? Would it make any real diff?
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby oowolf » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 16:25:55

In his latest book: Endgame, Jensen claims to have interviewed anarcho-terrorist hackers who are supposedly deadly serious about "crashing civilization". I have absolutely no knowledge as to whether or not this is so--so you NSA snoops can look elsewhere.

an ebomb is a device called a "flux compression generator" which (I think) is like uh...a Tesla coil with a pipe bomb inside. When the bomb detonates when the coil is charged it emits a stupifyingly intense electromagnetic pulse that can "fry" electronic circuirty for many miles around--the wave supposedly enters land lines and travels, say 50 miles or so, toasting every electric device attached to the line. Again, I don't know much about such things but there is an article in the Sept 2001 issue of Popular Science that explains how the thing is constructed:http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/defense/1281421.html
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby oowolf » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 16:43:34

There's a USA Today article posted on Savinar's LATOC (7-21-02)concerning "unexplained" power blackouts in the NYC area.

Monkeywrenching? Or just "the heat"?
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Re: Nothing is happening

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Fri 21 Jul 2006, 16:57:13

rogerhb wrote:
dinopello wrote:Sometimes I wonder if the folks that wrote prophecies like Revelation in the bible were just people that understood human nature, the limits of resources, and the inevitable boom and bust cycle that occurs.


They were alot closer to nature than us in the first couple of centuries of the common era. Notice how the four horseman did not include the Easter Bunny or the tooth-fairy.


LOL :-D
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Design -Limits to growth

Unread postby Stratovarius » Wed 03 Jan 2007, 02:32:17

link

Anyone know what this guy is talking about? He says some good things, but unfortunately I'm not even sure what the whole point of his speech is (mainly, what does he mean by "design").
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